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Well, it certainly wasn’t what everyone wanted, but not everyone was going to be pleased. The final 2024 College Football Playoff rankings were revealed on Sunday during Selection Day, where the 12-team field was officially announced.
For the most part, the field appeared set after last weekend’s penultimate rankings. However, conference championship weekend on Saturday left room for a few surprises, particularly in the ACC Championship Game.
Knowing how the committee viewed a 10-2 Miami over a 9-3 Alabama, speculation ran rampant: if Clemson beat SMU, would the ACC get two teams into the playoff? Ultimately, SMU survived the committee’s judgment, even after suffering a heartbreaking three-point loss to the Tigers on a last-second field goal, giving the Mustangs their second loss of the season.
The other surprises came in the form of seeding, particularly among the conference champions. Mountain West champion Boise State earned a first-round bye as the No. 3 seed, while Big 12 champion Arizona State surged to the No. 4 seed. SEC champion Georgia came in at No. 2, while Big Ten champion Oregon claimed the top spot as the No. 1 seed.
Here’s the Top 12 in the final College Football Playoff rankings, along with the first two teams out and the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.
1. Oregon (1st seed)
2. Georgia (2nd seed)
3. Texas (5th seed)
4. Penn State (6th seed)
5. Notre Dame (7th seed)
6. Ohio State (8th seed)
7. Tennessee (9th seed)
8. Indiana (10th seed)
9. Boise State (3rd seed)
10. SMU (11th seed)
11. Alabama (1st one out)
12. Arizona State (4th seed)
13. Miami (2nd one out)
16. Clemson (12th seed)
Now that the inaugural 12-team field is set, we’ll dive into our College Football Playoff game predictions, starting with the first-round and continuing all the way to the national championship game.
CFP First-Round: Indiana @ Notre Dame – Dec. 20 – 8PM ET
Having a playoff game in December is just one of the things that makes the new 12-team playoff so special. Not only is it a home playoff game—one of four in the first round—but it’s being hosted at Notre Dame, a venue considered by many to be the mecca of college football.
That alone presents a significant challenge for Curt Cignetti’s Indiana team. Adding to the difficulty is the Fighting Irish’s No. 3-ranked scoring defense, a unit that has consistently shut down opponents all season.
Indiana, however, boasts the No. 2 scoring offense in the country behind Miami, averaging 43.3 points per game. But in two of their last outings, the Hoosiers were held to just 20 points against Michigan and 15 points in their lone loss to Ohio State. Against Notre Dame, potentially in snowy conditions, it’s hard to see Indiana overcoming these obstacles. The Fighting Irish are poised to take care of business at home and advance to the quarterfinals.
Winner: Notre Dame
CFP First-Round: SMU @ Penn State – Dec. 21 – Noon ET
After their loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, SMU is just happy to be part of the dance. But the Mustangs now face one of the toughest environments in college football as they head to Penn State on Dec. 21.
Though both teams are coming off conference championship losses, the Nittany Lions, holding the sixth seed, are in a favorable position. They not only get to host but also face an SMU team that many consider one of the weaker squads in the CFP field. Adding to the challenge for the Mustangs, Penn State has already declared the game a White Out, ensuring the atmosphere will be off the charts. Combine that with the possibility of frigid December conditions, and SMU’s task becomes even tougher.
Penn State takes care of the Mustangs, earning a trip to face Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.
Winner: Penn State
CFP First-Round: Clemson @ Texas – Dec. 21 – 4PM ET
What’s so great about the new College Football Playoff, you ask? First-time matchups. That's what. When Clemson travels to Austin to face Texas, it will mark the first-ever meeting between the two storied programs, both of which rank among the Top 13 in FBS history for all-time victories, per the Tigers website.
The last two times the ACC champion Tigers were in the Lone Star State, they picked up wins over Texas A&M and Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl. They hold a 7-6 all-time record in the state.
As for Texas, the Longhorns are likely still reeling after losing in overtime to Georgia in their second meeting of the season. While talented, the Longhorns have shown they're not fireproof at home, with their first loss of the season also coming against the Bulldogs. Clemson, on the other hand, seems to have caught fire at the perfect time.
In a stunning upset, Clemson moves on to face Arizona State in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
Winner: Clemson
CFP First-Round: Tennessee @ Ohio State – Dec. 21 – 8PM ET
One of the most anticipated showdowns of the first round is Tennessee heading to “The Horseshoe” to face Ohio State. The Volunteers undoubtedly would have preferred the No. 8 seed and the accompanying home-field advantage, but instead, they’ll face the Buckeyes in Columbus.
What makes this matchup so intriguing is how Ohio State will respond following their stunning loss to rival Michigan in the final week of the regular season. The Buckeyes can't afford to overlook this Tennessee squad, which boasts one of the nation’s fiercest defensive fronts, anchored by projected first-round pick James Pearce Jr.
The big question is whether Ohio State’s banged-up offensive line can hold up and give quarterback Will Howard enough time to operate. Just as crucially, can Ryan Day and the Buckeyes put the Michigan loss behind them in time to rise to the challenge?
While this one feels like it could go either way, the pick here is Ohio State in a narrow victory, setting up a Rose Bowl rematch with Oregon. If this were in Neyland Stadium, this would be a different prediction. Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has not fared well on the road in his career.
Winner: Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinals: Penn State @ Boise State – VRBO Fiesta Bowl – Dec. 31 – 7:30PM ET
Boise State has made an incredible leap from vying for a coveted New Year’s Six bowl to earning a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. Should this matchup against Penn State take place, one key storyline to watch will be whether Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty can dominate another Power 4 program with his ground game.
One game that kept the Broncos firmly in the playoff conversation was their narrow three-point loss to Oregon earlier in the season, ironically, another Big Ten opponent. In that game, Jeanty rushed for 192 yards againstthe Ducks.
If Jeanty is healthy and firing on all cylinders, Boise State should have what it takes to pull off what many would consider an upset over the Nittany Lions. The pick here goes to the Broncos.
Winner: Boise State
CFP Quarterfinals: Clemson @ Arizona State – Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl – Jan. 1 – 1PM ET
Clemson’s season will come full circle, ending right where it began—at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Unfortunately for the Tigers, their campaign will conclude two games shy of the national championship game, which will also be held in Atlanta.
The story of Arizona State’s turnaround under Kenny Dillingham is nothing short of remarkable. The Big 12 champions have found their stride at the perfect time, riding their momentum into this showdown. Cam Skattebo will once again prove to be the difference-maker, exploiting Clemson’s occasionally vulnerable rushing defense. Arizona State moves on.
Winner: Arizona State
CFP Quarterfinals: Ohio State @ Oregon – The Rose Bowl presented by Prudential – Jan. 1 – 5PM ET
Ohio State finally gets the rematch they’ve been longing for—one they initially expected to play in the Big Ten Championship. This time it will take place in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff.
We’ve already witnessed one of the top rematches of the season in the SEC Championship between Georgia and Texas, which ended with the same result as their first meeting in the regular season. This matchup will follow a similar script, as Oregon has consistently demonstrated throughout the season why they’re the No. 1 team in the country. The Ducks will prevail once again, solidifying their dominance, moving onto the semifinals.
Winner: Oregon
CFP Quarterfinals: Notre Dame @ Georgia – The Allstate Sugar Bowl – Jan. 1 – 8:45PM ET
If this matchup does happen, it could end up being one of the most entertaining games of the entire College Football Playoff. Sure, the Fighting Irish had one of the worst losses of any playoff team this season, falling to Northern Illinois, but they rebounded with 10 consecutive wins to secure the No. 7 seed.
Georgia, meanwhile, suffered two losses this season, but there were moments when it felt like there could have been even more. And those games were with Carson Beck at quarterback. The question now is, what will this Bulldogs team look like without him after his injury in the SEC Championship? Notre Dame boasts a defense capable of handling Georgia, regardless of who’s under center. That’s why the Irish get the nod here to advance.
Winner: Notre Dame
CFP Semifinal: Boise State @ Notre Dame – The Capital One Orange Bowl – Jan. 9 – 7:30PM ET
It’s safe to say that probably not many are predicting Boise State and Notre Dame squaring off in the semifinals, but that’s the scenario here. But Georgia's potential loss of Carson Beck is a difference maker.
Between Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty and Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love, this game would feature plenty of rushing yards. However, the difference would be Leonard’s dual-threat ability—not just his legs, but also his arm, as he connects with his receivers to propel the Fighting Irish into the national championship game.
Winner: Notre Dame
CFP Semifinal: Arizona State @ Oregon – The Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic – Jan. 10 – 7:30PM ET
This matchup would reunite former Pac-12 foes, now separated by new conference affiliations, with Arizona State in the Big 12 and Oregon in the Big Ten. It would also pit Sun Devils head coach Kenny Dillingham against his former team, where he served as the Ducks’ offensive coordinator during the 2022 season.
In their last four meetings, the series is evenly split, 2-2. Oregon dominated their most recent clash in 2023, winning 49-13. While Arizona State’s turnaround under Dillingham has been remarkable, this one goes to the Ducks, who advance to the national championship.
Winner: Oregon
CFP National Championship: Notre Dame @ Oregon – Jan. 20 – 7:30PM ET
Oregon entered the season as a favorite not only to reach the College Football Playoff but to win it all. Seeing the Ducks in Atlanta on January 20 wouldn’t shock anyone. What might be more surprising is Notre Dame joining them—and the fact that for the second consecutive year, no SEC team will represent in the national championship game, despite the venue being in the Southeast.
This season has been defined by chaos, from conference realignments to unpredictable results on the field. Yet, through it all, Oregon has remained the most consistent team in college football. Even in moments of close-calls, the Ducks have shown resilience, finding ways to win—a hallmark of championship-caliber teams.
Notre Dame deserves credit for its incredible bounce-back after an embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois. Marcus Freeman kept the Fighting Irish focused, navigating a tough road to which could land them in the title game. They could benefit from a favorable seeding and catching Georgia without their starting quarterback. But in the end, the Irish won't be able to overcome Oregon's dominance.
The Ducks cap off their perfect season by winning the first national title in school history.
Winner: Oregon
