There isn't much in terms of big games on the horizon for Week 13 of the college football season, but all eyes will descend on Eugene on Saturday afternoon for the biggest game of the day. College GameDay will be in town for the matchup between No. 15 USC and No. 7 Oregon in what very well could be a College Football Playoff elimination game.
USC comes into the game with two losses, and a third would surely spell the end of its championship hopes both in the Big Ten and the CFP. However, a win against the Ducks on the road might be enough to help vault the Trojans above fellow two-loss teams such as Vanderbilt, Miami, and Utah.
On the other side, Oregon comes into this game with just one loss, but it still may not be able to survive a second. The Ducks don't have the same quality of wins that some of the two-loss teams below them do, especially with Iowa now unranked and the Penn State win aging poorly.
So, who will come out on top and stay in the playoff picture on Saturday? How can USC pull off the upset?
This is a different USC team under Lincoln Riley
Ever since Lincoln Riley arrived at USC, the Trojans have been viewed as a somewhat soft football team. While they have traditionally had high-flying passing offenses with the likes of Caleb Williams at quarterback, USC has always struggled at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. For years, the Trojans could not run the ball, and other teams could pound them on the ground.
Through 10 games this season, this is looking like a different kind of USC team. In Week 12, Riley and company rallied from a 14-point deficit against Iowa in the pouring rain, and they did it by winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
Nobody is confusing USC with the likes of Texas Tech on the defensive side of the ball, but this Trojans team has proven to be an average run defense so far this season. That is much, much more proficient than some of Riley's past USC teams, which couldn't stop a nosebleed on the ground. Offensively, USC is running for nearly 200 yards per game on the ground, a top 30 mark in college football.
Make no mistake. This team still has all of the ingredients of an elite Lincoln Riley football team. Jayden Maiava has been arguably the most under-appreciated quarterback in all of college football this season, and Makai Lemon and Ja'Kobi Lane form arguably the best duo in the nation at wide receiver. But the ability to supplement that with quality play up front has this team in a position to make the CFP with a win on Saturday.
Can USC win the line of scrimmage against Oregon?
Consider Iowa the study guide for the Trojans up front on both sides of the ball. Oregon is the final exam.
First of all, the Ducks are going to run the football with the best of them. There is a chance that it rains in Eugene on Saturday, and if it does, Oregon will lean into the running game even more. Dan Lanning and company have three very good backs — Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. — all of whom can run hard and be productive even while splitting carries.
As a team, Oregon is running for 233.6 yards per game, the eighth-best mark in college football. Quarterback Dante Moore will also get involved in the running game from time to time, so this is a multifaceted attack that the Trojans must have a plan to slow down.
Oregon has also done a good job protecting Moore up front this season, giving just 12 sacks in 10 games, so this USC defensive line has its work cut out for it.
On the other side of the ball, Oregon has one of the most talented defensive lines in college football. Teitum Tuioti and Matayo Uiagalelei form one of the best edge duos in the country, A'Mauri Washington could be a first-round pick at defensive tackle, and Bear Alexander is a former five-star recruit who is finally playing some of his best football.
That group makes up a run defense that is allowing just 108 yards per game on the ground this season, which will make it very difficult for the Trojans to move the football on the ground. Cracking the code and beating that front at the point of attack may be a prerequisite for USC to get a victory.
Who wins the strength-on-strength battle on the outside?
Winning the line of scrimmage becomes that much more important in this matchup because there is no team better equipped to slow down the USC passing attack than Oregon. The Ducks have the No. 1-ranked pass defense in college football this season, giving up just over 127 yards per game through the air.
Now, there is caveat to that. Oregon has not played very many good passing attacks this season, and the best one it played (Indiana) threw for 215. Not a great number, but well above the Ducks' average.
Oregon's secondary is very young, but it is physical and talented. It will be hard for the USC wideouts to generate space on the perimeter, and that could make Maiava's job tougher.
Thankfully for Riley and company, Lemon and Lane don't need a ton of space to make catches. Both legs of the star duo are two of the best in the nation at making catches in traffic and attacking the ball at the catch point, and there's no question that they will be called upon to make some of those 50-50 plays on Saturday. The Trojans boast a top-10 passing attack in the nation, and Lemon and Lane are a big reason why.
Lemon currently ranks third in the nation in receiving yards with 1,090 and is top 10 in touchdowns with eight. His ability to line up in the slot will make it harder for Oregon to gameplan against him, so look for the Biletnikoff Award candidate to have a big day if USC wants to pull the upset.
