NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and his fellow league executives are currently taking the downtime that is a part of the NFL offseason to assess what went right–and wrong–for the league this past season, which culminated in Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs once again hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after winning the Super Bowl. While the Chiefs’ offense looked electric throughout their 2024 playoff run, that same vaunted attack was largely held in check throughout most of the regular season, which was more or less indicative of a league-wide dip in scoring, one that Goodell and his other front office executives are reportedly eager to see reversed.
“Statistically, what gives us concern a little bit is scoring,” Competition Committee chairman Rich McKay said during a recent conference call, per Mike Florio of NBC Sports’ Pro Football Talk. “Scoring this year at 43.5 is still above an historical marker, which has kind of been that 43 mark. But we were at 49 points per game during COVID [in 2020], and we went to 45 [in 2021], we went to 43.76 [in 2022], and now we’re down to 43.54.”
Indeed, although NFL offenses are currently as talented and spread out as they’ve ever been, and league scoring is up as a whole overall compared to other eras of the NFL, the point remains that scoring is down across the league overall when compared to more recent seasons.
So what gives?
Factors that might explain the scoring downtick
As previously mentioned, the Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs’ offense for most of 2023-24 looked like a shell of its usual self, with opposing defenses able to keep up with one of the league’s most dynamic offenses seemingly like never before. One of the main culprits that was blamed for this development were the frequent drops by Kansas City wide receivers, which speaks to one factor that might explain the (relatively) low scoring around the league this past season: the talent is more spread out than perhaps ever before.
The Chiefs are no longer able to stockpile talented players like Tyreek Hill without fear of them following more money elsewhere, which is exactly what happened when Hill joined the Miami Dolphins back in 2022.
Furthermore, the league is now in a bit of a transitional period when it comes to the quarterback position. While Mahomes is obviously historically good and has already made a case for himself as the greatest player to ever live, other elite quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers have all retired in recent seasons, in some ways signaling a changing of the guard at that position. Meanwhile, former MVP candidates like Russell Wilson have seen their production significantly decrease with age and injuries, so some of the scoring downtick could be explained simply by a relative lack of talent at the quarterback position when compared to previous years.
In any case, as the NFL rulebook is continuously tweaked to legislate defense out of the game, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see scoring numbers skyrocket back up as the game continues to evolve.
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