The Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1) face off against the Tennessee Titans (3-2) in an AFC South divisional matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 pm ET. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Colts-Titans prediction and pick.

Indianapolis has won two straight games against Jacksonville and Denver after starting 1-2-1. They tied with Houston in week one before dropping games against Jacksonville and Tennessee. The Colts upset the Chiefs in week three. In the previous meeting between these teams, the Titans won 24-17. Indianapolis is second in the AFC South despite being 1-2-1 in their division. The Colts are 3-3 ATS and five of their six games have gone under.

Tennessee has won three consecutive games after starting 0-2. They began the season by dropping games to the Giants and Bills before rattling off wins against the Raiders, Colts, and Commanders. The Titans were on bye last week. Tennessee is first in the AFC South with a 1-0 divisional record. They are 3-2 ATS and three of their five games have gone under.

Here are the Colts-Titans NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NFL Odds: Colts-Titans Odds

Indianapolis Colts: +2.5 (-104)

Tennessee Titans: -2.5 (-118)

Over: 41.5 (-110)

Under: 41.5 (-110)

Why The Colts Could Cover The Spread

The Colts have continued Frank Reich's tradition of starting seasons slowly. Reich's Colts are now 8-11-1 in the first four weeks under Reich's tenure but have rebounded to make the playoffs in two of his four seasons. Indy has been solid defensively but up until last week had shown few signs of life on offense. The Colts are 31st in offensive DVOA and are 27th in points per game. They have an abysmal 47% red zone scoring percentage and hadn't topped 20 points until last week.

However, if last week was any indication, the Colts may have found their groove on offense. Indianapolis scored 34 points in the win and quarterback Matt Ryan had his best game as a Colt. Ryan completed 42-58 passes as Indy completely abandoned the run game in Jonathan Taylor's absence. That proved to be a recipe for success as Ryan's 389 yards and 3 touchdowns were enough to propel Indy to victory.

Indianapolis could find similar levels of success through the air against a vulnerable Tennessee secondary. The Titans have allowed the most passing yards per game in the NFL. In their most recent game prior to the bye week, the Titans gave up 359 yards to Carson Wentz. If Indy wants to cover on Sunday they'll need last week's version of Matt Ryan. He threw for over 350 yards in the teams' previous meeting this year.

While Ryan will need to continue his strong play, the Colts are expected to get star running back Jonathan Taylor back this week. Taylor has missed the last few games with an injury. Although he hasn't been as effective as last season, last year's leading rusher would be a welcome addition to a Colts team that is 29th in rushing. His status is worth keeping an eye on, but when making a Colts-Titans prediction betters should be aware that the Titans shut him down in their last meeting.

Why The Titans Could Cover The Spread

Tennessee has rebounded nicely after an 0-2 start and won three straight games going into their bye week. They've had two weeks to prepare for a Colts team they already defeated on the road this season. Tennessee has also won five of their last six games against Indianapolis but they'll need to tighten up their secondary if they want to slow down a revived Indy passing game.

Offensively, Tennessee has followed a similar formula to the last few years. They run Derrick Henry. A lot. Tennessee is fifth in rush play percentage and ninth in rushes per game. They haven't been as effective as in previous seasons, however, as they're just 21st in rushing yards per game. They did, however, run the ball well in their previous meeting against the Colts just a few weeks ago. Derrick Henry scampered for 114 yards on 22 carries in the victory.

After a slow start, Henry has picked things up lately. He's coming off two consecutive 100-yard games and has punched in a touchdown in four straight games. The Colts can be run on (21st in rushing defense) and Tennessee will surely want to keep the ball out of Matt Ryan's hands and allow their secondary as much rest as possible. Henry will need to be effective given quarterback Ryan Tannehill's struggles this season. The Titans are 28th in passing offense and 19th in interception rate. If Henry can have a similar performance to their week four matchup, Tennessee should be in a good position to cover the 2.5-point line.

Final Colts-Titans Prediction & Pick

The Titans have had Indy's number lately but I like the Colts to bounce back here. Jonathan Taylor should be back and he and Matt Ryan are in a good spot to expose a vulnerable Titans defense.

Final Colts-Titans Prediction & Pick: Indianapolis Colts +2.5 (-104)