The Buffalo Bills are entering Week 6 with something to prove. After rolling through the first month of the 2025 NFL season, Buffalo hit its first speed bump in a shocking 23-20 loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday night. It wasn’t just the upset that stung but the manner in which it happened. The Bills clawed back to tie the game at 20-20 late in the fourth quarter, only to watch the Patriots march downfield and drill a 52-yard field goal with 15 seconds remaining.
Now, the Bills (4-1) head to Mercedes-Benz Stadium to face the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) in a Week 6 showdown that could define how this team responds to adversity. Buffalo remains one of the AFC’s premier contenders, of course. However, this game presents a critical opportunity to reassert dominance. For all their offensive firepower, the Bills have shown moments of inconsistency. That's something head coach Sean McDermott was quick to address after the loss.
“It’s a good reminder for us of how you really don’t want to play and don’t want to live that type of life,” McDermott said. “We have to stay on the details, stay disciplined, and stay urgent. It’s about finishing plays, taking care of the football, and making good decisions.”
Falcons rolling, Bills reeling
After four straight wins to start the year, the Bills’ setback came as a surprise to many. But with Josh Allen under center, Buffalo has rarely dropped consecutive games in the McDermott era. The team’s offensive structure remains among the league’s most explosive. They have averaged nearly 30 points per game prior to Week 5. Still, Buffalo will need to correct its red-zone inefficiency and turnover issues if it hopes to avoid another close-call disappointment.
Meanwhile, the Falcons come into the matchup refreshed after their bye week. At 2-2, Atlanta remains capable of looking competitive one week and disjointed the next. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr has flashed big-play potential. That said, the offense continues to revolve around the ground game, averaging 136.5 rushing yards per outing. Head coach Raheem Morris will rely heavily on his running backs to control the tempo and limit Buffalo’s offensive possessions.
The environment will favor Atlanta, but history suggests the Bills rarely lose focus two games in a row. That makes them particularly dangerous heading into this matchup.
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Here we will look at and discuss some bold predictions for the game between the Bills and the Falcons in Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season.
Josh Allen reaches 300 yards again
When it comes to bounce-back performances, few quarterbacks in the NFL respond better than Josh Allen. Against New England, Allen completed 22 of 31 passes for 253 yards. He also had two touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 53 yards and a score. Despite throwing a costly late interception, Allen still displayed command, arm strength, and trademark improvisational flair.
Expect him to put up even bigger numbers against Atlanta’s defense. The Falcons have struggled to generate consistent pressure. In fact, they rank in the bottom third of the league in sacks and QB hits. That’s a recipe for disaster against a quarterback like Allen. With Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid emerging as reliable targets, the Bills should lean on their passing game early to regain rhythm.
Allen should eclipse 300 passing yards for the second time this season. He should have multiple touchdowns and a renewed sense of urgency. That should remind everyone why he’s still one of the game’s elite signal-callers.
James Cook continues to struggle
Running back James Cook started the season strong but has cooled off over the past two weeks. In the loss to New England, he logged 15 carries for 49 yards. Cook also failed to record a reception for the first time this year. Sure, he remains Buffalo’s clear RB1. However, the lack of explosive runs and diminished involvement in the passing game have raised concerns about his consistency.
Keep in mind that the Falcons’ defense has allowed only one 100-yard rusher this season. Atlanta’s linebackers are disciplined, and their front seven plays sound gap control. If Cook can’t find early running lanes, the Bills may again pivot toward a pass-heavy approach featuring Allen’s scrambling and short passes. As things stand, Cook will fail to top 60 total yards for the second straight week.
Dalton Kincaid leads the Bills in receiving yards
Sure, Shakir remains the team’s top target. However, Dalton Kincaid is emerging as Buffalo’s most dangerous mismatch weapon. Against the Patriots, the tight end caught six passes for 108 yards. That marked his first career 100-yard game in regular or postseason play. He showcased excellent route discipline and soft hands for chunk gains.
Note that the Falcons have had difficulty defending athletic tight ends. Kincaid’s versatility makes him a nightmare to contain. Whether split wide or lined up inline, he creates matchup issues against linebackers and safeties alike. Kincaid will again lead all Bills pass-catchers in receiving yards. He should haul in seven or more receptions and a touchdown in another statement game.
Bills defense forces multiple turnovers in bounce-back win
Buffalo’s defense was uncharacteristically flat in Week 5. They allowed long drives and failed to generate momentum-changing plays. That should change against the Falcons. Yes, Atlanta boasts an elite ground game. That said, Penix has shown occasional vulnerability under pressure.
Expect McDermott’s defense to rebound by tightening run gaps and disguising coverages to bait Penix into mistakes. The Bills rank among the league leaders in takeaways since 2023. This feels like the type of game where opportunism returns to form. Buffalo will force two or more turnovers. That should set up short fields for Allen and company.
Ultimately, the Bills will control the pace, start fast, and never let up. We have Buffalo winning, 31-20. That would reestablish the Bills’ standing as one of the AFC’s elite contenders.
