The Pittsburgh Steelers enter Week 15 in a familiar yet uneasy position. They sit atop the AFC North while still inspiring debate about just how dangerous they truly are. This season has been defined by inconsistency, physical football, and late-game resilience. Pittsburgh has once again found ways to win close games and control its destiny. As the playoff race tightens across the AFC, advanced models paint a nuanced picture. They respect the Steelers’ position in the standings while questioning the sustainability of their success. With division control on the line and little margin for error, the Steelers’ playoff picture is both promising and precarious.
Steelers’ 2025 season so far
The Steelers are having an up-and-down 2025 NFL season. However, they currently find themselves in first place in the AFC North with a 7–6 record as Week 15 approaches. A crucial 27–22 victory over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 14 allowed Pittsburgh to leapfrog its rivals despite being outgained on the ground. That underscored the Steelers’ knack for situational football. Sure, some analytical models such as DAVE rate them closer to league average at 1.5%. However, the win-loss record tells a more optimistic story. Most projections from ESPN and The Athletic give the Steelers a 67–76% chance of making the playoffs. That often slots them as the AFC’s fourth seed and division champions, making the final stretch of the season critical.
Here we will look at and discuss the Pittsburgh Steelers playoff picture, including their updated DVOA and The Athletic, ESPN model odds before Week 15.
FTN Fantasy DVOA and odds
According to FTN Fantasy’s DVOA and DAVE models, the Steelers are in solid shape to reach the postseason. They carry a 75.7% chance to make the playoffs entering Week 15. That number reflects Pittsburgh’s advantageous position atop the division and a favorable remaining path relative to other AFC bubble teams.
However, the underlying efficiency metrics tell a more cautious story. Pittsburgh’s 1.5% DAVE rating places them second in the AFC North behind Baltimore from an analytical standpoint. That suggests their performance has been closer to average than dominant. FTN’s models imply that while the Steelers have earned their record, their margin for error is slimmer than that of more analytically robust contenders. That makes continued wins essential to validate their standing.
ESPN playoff odds
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) offers a similarly optimistic but measured outlook. The model gives Pittsburgh a 67% chance to make the playoffs and an equally strong 67% chance of winning the AFC North. That alignment underscores how tightly the division race is tied to each remaining result.
Yes, the Steelers’ odds of securing a first-round bye remain below 1%. That said, ESPN still assigns them a 5% chance of reaching Super Bowl LX. That figure reflects belief in Pittsburgh’s defensive identity, coaching continuity, and experience in playoff-style games. If the Steelers can lock up the division, ESPN’s models suggest they could become a difficult out. That's even without elite efficiency metrics.
Steelers playoff odds via The Athletic
The Athletic’s playoff simulator provides the most granular projection. They forecast the Steelers to finish the regular season at 9–8 and claim the AFC’s fourth seed as division winners. The model assigns Pittsburgh a 70% chance to make the playoffs and an identical 70% chance to win the AFC North. These reinforce the idea that the division remains firmly within reach.
As with other models, the probability of a Wild Card bye is negligible at under 1%. Also, The Athletic pegs the Steelers’ Super Bowl LX odds at 2%. That projection reflects the reality of a difficult postseason road. On the flip side, it also acknowledges that Pittsburgh’s physical style and divisional familiarity could create matchup problems once January arrives.
What it all means for Pittsburgh
The Steelers’ playoff picture is defined by control without comfort. Sure, they sit atop the AFC North standings. However, advanced metrics continue to question the sustainability of their success. That places added pressure on every remaining game. Pittsburgh has thrived on situational excellenc. They have won close contests, capitalized on turnovers, and executed in late-game moments. Those margins, though, are notoriously thin. The analytics don’t dismiss the Steelers. They challenge them. To maintain their position, Pittsburgh must continue to win the kinds of gritty, physical games that define their identity. There is little statistical cushion if results begin to slip.
Bottom line
The Steelers’ playoff outlook before Week 15 is cautiously optimistic. It is shaped by results rather than dominance. They control the division, carry favorable postseason odds, and have repeatedly shown the ability to rise in high-leverage moments. Still, the numbers make one thing clear: there is almost no margin for error. For Pittsburgh, December football isn’t about aesthetics or convincing models. It's about survival, discipline, and validating a season built on resilience. If the Steelers keep winning, the projections will follow. If they don’t, the margin disappears just as quickly as it appeared.
