Buffalo enters the Week 11 matchup against Tampa Bay sitting at 6-3 after a devastating 30-13 loss to Miami that exposed critical weaknesses on offense. Josh Allen and the Bills' passing game looked completely out of sync, with Allen averaging a time to throw of 3.53 seconds—his highest since Week 15 of 2018—while receivers struggled to create separation downfield. The Dolphins' defensive scheme featuring simulated pressures and motion-heavy looks completely disrupted Buffalo's offensive rhythm, and the Bills must regain their compositional balance this week against a vulnerable Tampa Bay squad.
The Buccaneers, despite sitting at 6-3, are dealing with their own injuries including Mike Evans out on the sidelines and Chris Godwin's availability in question heading into Sunday. Tampa Bay's run defense ranks 25th in the NFL at 99.8 yards per game, creating an opportunity for Buffalo to establish dominance in the ground game and take pressure off Allen's arm. The key to the Bills' bounce-back performance lies in one critical area: getting Khalil Shakir back to his dominant role in the passing game as the primary check-down and underneath option.
The Orchestrator of Buffalo's Offensive Reset
Shakir has been Josh Allen's most reliable target all season, leading the team with 100 targets during the 2024 regular season and earning the trust of both Allen and offensive coordinator Joe Brady in critical moments. Against Miami, the Bills' offense lacked the rhythm and connectivity that makes their scheme effective, with receivers either late to breaks or failing to create the easy completions that allow Allen to feel confident moving through his progressions. Shakir's presence as a chain-mover and a safety valve in the short-to-intermediate range is essential for resetting the Bills' offensive identity, especially when facing a Tampa Bay secondary that has allowed deep throws but can be vulnerable to the underneath game when teams are patient.
The Buccaneers' defense, while respectable at 4-2 on the road, lacks the elite pass rush that Miami showcased last weekend with their 17 team pressures and three sacks. By establishing Shakir as the focal point of the offensive game plan and leaning on his receiving ability to create positive yardage chains, Buffalo can take advantage of Tampa Bay's secondary's susceptibility to short-range attacks. If Allen can regain confidence with quick completions to Shakir in space, the entire offense opens up for the run game and downfield shots to Keon Coleman and the receiving corps.
Controlling the Line of Scrimmage and Setting the Tone Early
Buffalo's offensive line struggled mightily against Miami's simulated pressure scheme, with Allen facing constant confusion in the pocket and limited time to operate. Against Tampa Bay, the Bills must assert dominance at the line of scrimmage by establishing the run game early and forcing the Buccaneers' defense into reactive positions rather than dictating the tempo. With backup running backs and fullback packages at their disposal, Buffalo can utilize their NFL-leading versatility in personnel groupings to attack Tampa Bay's front seven, particularly with the absence of defensive star Vita Vea dealing with a back injury that could limit his availability Sunday.
The Bills' offensive versatility that was showcased so effectively in the win over Kansas City must resurface against Tampa Bay, creating conflict in the secondary through play-action and varied formations. By controlling the line of scrimmage and establishing physical dominance in the running game, Allen can function within rhythm-based play calls where the offense operates with confidence and purpose. This approach directly addresses the symptoms that plagued Buffalo's performance in Miami and sets the foundation for a bounce-back victory that keeps the Bills' playoff aspirations alive in a tightly contested AFC East.
