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Cleveland Browns quarterback and former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield seemed to warrant his draft selection almost as soon as he took over under center for the “Dawg Pound.” Mayfield went 6-7 in 13 starts, throwing for 3,725 yards and 27 touchdowns while offering Browns fans a glimmer of hope.
But Mayfield has to earn back some trust after an underwhelming 2019 campaign, including from fantasy owners. The Browns went 6-10 in 2019, with Mayfield struggling to take care of the ball and consistently move the ball. Cleveland reloaded the offense this offseason, but will it be enough to make Baker one of the top fantasy quarterbacks?
2019 Fantasy Stats
Baker Mayfield was extremely mediocre in 2019 as far as quarterbacks go.
The former Oklahoma star was QB20 among the ESPN scoring leaders, finishing the year with just over 229 fantasy points. By comparison, Baltimore Ravens star and league MVP led all fantasy scorers with over 415 points.
Of course, Jackson also has the advantage of being a mobile quarterback who can rack up points on the ground and score some touchdowns of his own. Baker Mayfield is not nearly as athletic–though he did supply three rushing touchdowns–and more of a pocket passer, meaning he has to take better care of the ball.
Baker Mayfield threw 21 interceptions in 2019, with his interception rate climbing by a full percentage point and his touchdown rate falling by 1.5 percent. Mayfield also completed under 60 percent of his passes this past season, which is obviously less than ideal given the turnovers.
2020 Fantasy Projections
There are reasons to believe Baker Mayfield still has value as a spot starter or even a fringe QB1 in fantasy leagues this season.
For starters, the weapons are all there.
Odell Beckham Jr. is still one of the best receivers in the game, and has said all offseason he is hungrier than ever for his best season yet. Beckham played all 16 games for the first time since 2016. If he can stay on the field and develop greater chemistry with Baker Mayfield, he could help galvanize the offense, which would obviously serve Baker well.
Jarvis Landry might be even better than his former LSU teammate. Landry finished the 83 catches for 1,174 yards and six touchdowns, posting a career-high 14.1 yards per reception and consistently looking like Cleveland's most dangerous threat in the passing game.
The 27-year-old also put up these numbers despite suffering from a bad hip all season, and said he could have “easily” surpassed 1,500 yards if healthy. Landry had surgery in the offseason, and his status for Week 1 is unknown. But again, a healthier and more explosive Landry bodes well for Baker's fantasy outlook.
Cleveland added Pro Bowl tight end Austin Hooper in the offseason, giving Baker Mayfield yet another dependable pass-catcher and one of the top red zone threats in football.
But the most important part of Mayfield's fantasy value relates to the overhaul on the offensive line.
Baker was sacked 40 times last season. Some of those sacks were related to Baker Mayfield holding on to the ball too long. But there were plenty of breakdowns in pass protection as Cleveland's O-line struggled to provide time in the pocket.
However, the protection should be better this year. The Browns signed former All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin in free agency, and also drafted former Alabama standout Jedrick Wills Jr. with their first-round selection.
Wills' ability to transition to the blind side will undoubtedly be a big storyline for the offense. But if he is anywhere near as effective as he was at Alabama, Baker Mayfield should have a lot more time to make his reads and make on-time throws to his receiving corps.
There are still reasons for concern: the Browns figure to feed running back Nick Chubb (second-leading rusher in 2019), especially with former Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator as head coach.
But the moves Cleveland made in the offseason provide optimism for Baker Mayfield to have a bounce-back season in 2020.
Rank at Position
Baker Mayfield is currently being regarded as a middle-of-the-pack option.
The ESPN Fantasy Football staff's cumulative rankings place Baker at No. 17 among QBs, and no single writer had Mayfield higher than No. 16 on their list.
In fact, Baker Mayfield is ranked well below the likes of New York Giants signal-caller Daniel Jones–despite Jones' inability to take control of the football–as well as injury-riddled players such as Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford and new New England Patriots star Cam Newton.
Still, this ranking firmly places Baker Mayfield in QB2 territory in 12-team leagues, which might be a fair assessment until Baker proves otherwise.
It should be noted that Baker Mayfield is currently going slightly higher in most leagues. He has an average draft position (ADP) of QB14, according to Fantasy Pros. Either way, it seems to be a pretty clear consensus that Mayfield is not starting material.
However, the pieces are in place for Baker Mayfield to potentially be a top-10 fantasy quarterback this year. If nothing else, he is a viable starter, and could be a valuable QB2 for owners off the bench.
