Houston Texans quarterback CJ Stroud burst onto the scene in 2023 with one of the best rookie seasons ever. Stroud became just the third player ever to lead the league in both passing yards per game and touchdown-to-interception ratio that year, joining all-time NFL greats Tom Brady and Joe Montana on that list.
Furthermore, he became just the fifth rookie ever with 4,000-plus passing yards, and he broke the rookie record for passing touchdowns in a playoff game. Stroud was the youngest quarterback to win a playoff game in said performance against the Cleveland Browns, and it looked like he'd become an MVP-caliber megastar for years to come.
Instead, Stroud looked like a shell of himself during a sophomore slump, and he has done nothing to invoke confidence through two weeks of his third season. The impressive rookie season and subsequent regression is eerily similar to Mac Jones' career path. So just what has gone wrong for Stroud?
Comparing CJ Stroud with Mac Jones
The New England Patriots drafted Jones 15th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft as part of a class that was supposed to be an upper echelon for quarterbacks. He was the fifth quarterback taken in the first round that year. But he had by far the best rookie season among his peers. And everybody assumed that he was a huge draft steal.
Jones was NFL-ready from Day 1. He is an accurate passer who is able to read defenses and make smart plays. It resulted in 3,801 passing yards and 22 touchdowns as a rookie, which was more than Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, or Justin Fields.
However, Jones lacked the raw physical traits to ever improve upon that season. He was a classic high-floor, low-ceiling player, which resulted in the Alabama product having two more subpar seasons with the New England Patriots before reverting to backup duty over the last two seasons.
Stroud may have a similar problem. He was a play-now prospect, which resulted in a fantastic rookie season. However, Stroud has been mediocre at best ever since Year 1. After a promising 4,108-yard and 23-touchdown rookie season, Stroud threw for just 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns last year. He had over double the number of interceptions from Year 1 to Year 2 as well. So far this season, Stroud has only thrown for 395 yards and one touchdown.
Even worse, his Texans are 0-2. They came into the year with championship expectations. But they've had to rely almost completely on the defense just to try and stay afloat.
Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefan Diggs all dealt with injuries last season, which was partly used to justify Stroud's mediocrity. Collins returned; the Texans traded for Christian Kirk; and they drafted two receivers early in the 2025 NFL Draft to give their quarterback more weapons this year. However, not much has changed for Stroud.
Many young signal callers make bad decisions, but Stroud was safe with the ball as a rookie. However, he has been too unwilling to try for big plays ever since then. Furthermore, the three-level accuracy that was obvious in Year 1 has gone downhill since. Stroud had numerous misfires and delayed throws in the Texans' Week 2 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Stroud still has loads of potential. His ceiling is much higher than Jones' ever was, but he is trending the wrong way quickly. The Texans need him to be a star, but he has looked average for far too long now.
