The Indianapolis Colts venture into NRG Stadium in what could be a career-defining moment for one young quarterback. Houston's elite defense will face a Colts offense led by rookie quarterback Riley Leonard that is looking for an answer at the quarterback position for 2026 and beyond. With playoff seeding implications still in play for Houston and Indianapolis looking to play spoiler against divisional foe, Sunday's matchup carries significant weight. Here are three bold predictions for this AFC South showdown.
Riley Leonard Gets Exposed by the NFL's Premier Defense
The Texans' defense ranks first in the NFL in virtually every meaningful statistical category, allowing just 16.6 points per game and 272.4 yards per contest. Against this elite unit, rookie Riley Leonard will face his stiffest test as an NFL quarterback. Leonard has appeared in only four games for Indianapolis, completing 18 of 33 passes for 145 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. His performance metrics have been pedestrian at best, recording a negative EPA of -7.56 and a completion percentage of just 54.5%.
The Colts' offensive line, while talented, cannot mask the inexperience of a first-year quarterback operating behind center. Leonard will be forced into difficult decisions against Houston's pass rush, which has been suffocating opponents all season. The Texans' defensive scheme is specifically designed to create pressure and disrupt rhythm, and Houston's secondary has shown the ability to capitalize on young quarterbacks' mistakes. Expect the Texans to generate consistent pressure, force Leonard into hurried throws, and potentially record multiple sacks. Look for a statline reflecting the disparity in experience: Leonard under 150 passing yards with at least one interception.
Jonathan Taylor Struggles to Find Room Against the Stingy Texans Run Defense
Jonathan Taylor has been nothing short of exceptional this season, accumulating 1,559 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns on 309 carries for an impressive 5.0-yard average per carry. His Week 17 performance against Jacksonville demonstrated his potential, as he rushed for 253 yards and two touchdowns in dominant fashion. However, the Texans present a different challenge entirely. Houston's defense has surrendered just 4.7 yards per play, the fourth-best mark in football, indicating elite fundamental discipline across the roster.
The Texans' defensive line has been constructed specifically to stop the run, with proven run-stuffers and gap assignment specialists. While Taylor is elite in his own right, even elite running backs struggle against the league's premier defensive unit. Houston has shown the ability to contain running backs through superior gap integrity and assignment discipline. Taylor will be held to his season-low range of performance, likely accumulating between 65-85 rushing yards on 18-22 carries. The Texans' defense will force Indianapolis to rely on passing, which plays directly into Houston's strength in coverage and their ability to generate pressure upfield.
The Texans' Offense Will Move the Ball Easily Against an Overmatched Colts Secondary
CJ Stroud has won 5 straight games, making plays like these during the win streak and accounts on here claim he’s mid 🤨 pic.twitter.com/9ntMdlnMCU
— big ounce (@_bigounce) December 30, 2025
While much focus has centered on Houston's dominant defense, the Texans' offense deserves credit for its steady improvement throughout the season. C.J. Stroud has matured significantly under pressure, posting a 93.6 passer rating in 2025 with 2,872 passing yards and 18 touchdowns in 12 games. The Texans have won eight consecutive games, demonstrating championship-caliber resolve. Meanwhile, the Colts' secondary ranks 19th in points allowed per game at 23.4, with particularly vulnerable road performance (2-5 away from home).
Stroud will have ample opportunities to dissect Indianapolis' secondary, which lacks the elite cover corners needed to slow Houston's receiving weapons. The Texans' offense will establish an early rhythm, putting points on the board and forcing the Colts into deficit situations. Expect Stroud to post efficient numbers—likely 250+ passing yards and multiple touchdown passes. Houston's ground game, led by Woody Marks, will also find running room against the Colts' predictable defensive schemes. The combination of early offensive success and defensive superiority will create a snowball effect, with the Texans controlling field position and time of possession throughout the contest.
