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After beating the Jacksonville Jaguars with a combined Patrick Mahomes-Chad Henne effort in the Divisional Round, the Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship opponent is, for the second year in a row, the Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs come into this game with two major issues working against them. One is that Patrick Mahomes has a high ankle sprain, an injury that usually takes three to four weeks to recover from. The other is that, whether Mahomes is healthy or not, Joe Burrow and the Bengals have the Chiefs' number, beating them in the last three Chiefs-Bengals tilts. If the Chiefs hope to win this upcoming matchup and make yet another Super Bowl, it won’t be on Mahomes’ shoulders. That’s because the Chiefs' X-factor in this game is a seventh-round rookie who could carry his team to victory.
Chiefs X-Factor vs. Bengals: Isiah Pacheco
The Chiefs came into the 2022 season with the offensive backfield pretty well set. Clyde Edwards-Helaire would be the bell cow back, Jerick McKinnon the change of pace, and Ronald Jones II the versatile No. 3.
What nearly no one in the Chiefs organization counted on is the emergence of a seventh-round pick (No. 251) out of Rutgers named Isiah Pacheco.
Pacheco was so good in preseason the team moved him to the practice squad and made the rookie the No. 3 back. He then became the No. 2 back behind Edwards-Helaire, as every time Andy Reid gave the RB more than five touches in a game he ran for 4.5 yards per carry or more.
By midseason, Pacheco was the starter, and his breakout game came in Week 11. That’s when the late-round rookie had 15 carries for 107 yards in a 30-27 win over the Chiefs’ AFC West rival Los Angeles Chargers.
In Week 15, Edwards-Helaire went down with a high ankle sprain and hasn’t played since. That injury made Pacheco the unquestioned No. 1 in the Chiefs backfield, and the team hasn’t lost since.
The Chiefs-Bengals AFC Championship game will be the biggest test of the year for Isiah Pacheco. Mahomes will be limited in this game and will need his playmakers to step up. It won’t be a surprise if Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy open with a run-heavy game plan on Sunday.
Toting the rock is just one way Pacheco will be the Chiefs' X-factor against the Bengals.
Another way is in the passing game. The Bengals had the No. 16-ranked pass defense in the league this season and were 29th in the NFL in sacks with just 30. That means the way to beat Cincinnati is, ultimately, through the air.
With Mahomes banged up, Pacheco’s job becomes two-fold here. One responsibility will be acting as an outlet for his QB. Mahomes won’t be able to move around in the pocket to escape pressure like he usually does, so getting open near the line of scrimmage for a quick pass from his QB will be critical.
The other responsibility Pacheco will have — and this is an enormous one — is picking up blitzers. Mahomes will be a sitting duck in the pocket in the AFC Championship Game, and when Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo sends extra pass rushers, it is on the rookie to pick them up so his QB doesn’t get killed.
Pass protection by rookie running backs is often the reason young players at the position don’t always get the playing time their running talent would seem to dictate. Despite his relatively small size (5-foot-10, 216 pounds), though, Pacheco has been better than average when left in to block.
Oh, and on top of all that, Pacheco is also the team’s most dangerous kick returner. He has 29 kickoff returns this season for 597 yards (20.6 yards per return), and if he can break a big one in this Chiefs-Bengals matchup, that could be a game-changer, too.
With his running, receiving, returning, and blocking responsibilities in this AFC Championship game, Isiah Pacheco will undoubtedly be the Chiefs' X-factor. Outside of Mahomes and maybe defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo — who is tasked with slowing down Joe Burrow and company — no one on the Chiefs sidelines will have a busier day than the rookie running back.
And while Las Vegas (Bengals -1) and most NFL pundits favor the healthier QB and his 3-0 lifetime record against his Chiefs counterpart, there is a path for the home team to pull off an upset and make it to another Super Bowl.
In order to do so, though, it’s won’t be the patented Mahomes Magic this time that gets it done. It will be Chiefs X-factor Isiah Pacheco putting on his own superhero cape and running circles around the visitors in the open field.
