In one of the biggests surprises of the 2025 season, the Miami Dolphins are still alive in the AFC playoff picture. That is remarkable, especially considering how the Dolphins started the 2025 season. Miami only won one game through the first seven weeks of the season. At that time, many around the NFL were ready for Miami to fire Mike McDaniel and have the team start a rebuild.
But McDaniel and his team have stayed the course and gone on an impressive four-game winning streak to get back into playoff content.
The Dolphins are now 6-7 and barely hanging on in a competitive AFC. They will almost certainly not make the playoffs, but it must be exhilarating for them to know there's still a path to make the dance.
Miami is gearing up for a Monday Night Football matchup against the Steelers. Everything will be on the table for the Dolphins. A win could keep their playoff hopes alive, while a defeat could almost certainly close the door on their Cinderella run.
So just how long are the odds facing the Dolphins with four weeks left in the regular season?
Below we will explore Miami's playoff odds heading into Week 15 of the 2025 season.
All playoff models agree that Dolphins have incredibly slim chance to make the playoffs
It doesn't matter whether you prefer ESPN, The Athletic, or FTN Fantasy. All three models tell the same story: Miami is a huge underdog to make the playoffs.
FTN Fantasy, which uses a DVOA-based playoff model, has the Dolphins with only a 0.6% chance to make the postseason heading into Week 15.
ESPN gives Miami less than a 1% chance across the board to do anything in the playoffs. They have the worst playoff odds of any AFC team that is still alive in the race, even lower than the 4-9 Cincinnati Bengals at 3%.
The Athletic's playoff simulator also gives Miami a less than 1% chance to make the playoffs, and also puts Cincinnati ahead at 3%. In fact, the Dolphins are not even listed as a team that is “in the hunt” on The Athletic's projected standings feature.
The main reason why Miami (6-7) has worse odds than Cincinnati (4-9) and Kansas City (6-7) is likely because of each model's confidence in each team.
Cincinnati and Kansas City have been competitive teams over the past few seasons, much more than Miami.
But the numbers don't lie. The Dolphins still have a chance to shock the world and make the playoffs this season.
How can they make it happen?
Dolphins need to beat Steelers in Week 15 to keep their foot in the door
The Athletic's playoff simulator includes a feature that lets you see how odds change based on the outcome of one win or loss. That feature helps illustrate how the Dolphins could pull off the impossible.
It all starts with a win in Week 15.
If the Dolphins get a win against the Steelers, their playoff odds can improve to 2% headed into Week 16. Their odds depend greatly on other AFC wild card contenders losing games. Just by running a few simulations, it is easy to see that 2% is about the ceiling for Week 16.
But the good news is that those odds keep going up as the Dolphins continue winning games.
In my simulation, an additional win against the Bengals Week 17 does not move the needle much. But it is necessary to keep home alive. Then, the Dolphins could get their odds to 3% with an improbable Week 17 win against the Buccaneers.
Then they face their final boss, the New England Patriots.
The Dolphins likely miss the postseason if they cannot beat the Patriots in Week 18. But if they can pull off a huge upset, their playoff chances improve to a whopping 13%.
And those odds can go even higher if the Dolphins get the right help at the right time.
Dolphins rooting guide ahead of Week 15
So let's assume the Dolphins will win the rest of their regular season games.
Which other games will have the biggest impact on Miami's playoff odds? And which teams should Dolphins fans be rooting for?
The most important games in Week 15 are Bills at Patriots and Cardinals at Texans. Dolphins fans should root for the Patriots and Cardinals in these games.
New England has a firm grip on the division title, so beating Buffalo does damage to another AFC wild card hopeful. Meanwhile, an improbable Cardinals win against the Texans accomplishes the same thing.
Beyond Week 15, Dolphins fans would also want to keep rooting for the Bills and Chiefs to keep losing games. Miami's best shot at making the playoffs is both teams melting down, allowing them to sneak right past them into January football.
It probably won't happen, but it is good to know that there's a path for the Dolphins to make the postseason.
