The Miami Dolphins have spent most of the 2025 season trying to claw their way back from their early stumbles. Their Week 14 win over the New York Jets kept the faintest flicker of postseason hope alive. At 6-7, Miami is playing its best football of the year. They are riding an increasingly efficient offense and showing signs of the explosiveness that once defined the Mike McDaniel era. With the AFC packed tighter than ever and tiebreakers stacked against them, though, the question now becomes painfully simple. Even if the Dolphins keep winning, will it matter?
Week 14 shook up the standings
The Dolphins routed the Jets 34-10 at MetLife Stadium. It extended their win streak to four games while officially eliminating New York from playoff contention. Tua Tagovailoa did not have the biggest outing, netting 127 yards and one touchdown. Miami built a commanding 21-0 first-quarter lead. De'Von Achane capped the early onslaught with a rushing TD, while the Dolphins' defense stifled New York to just 10 points total, with seven from special teams mishaps like a blocked punt returned for a score. It showcased Miami's formula for December dominance.
Despite the lopsided victory, concerns lingered with a late-game injury to star Achane (rib injury). Still, cold-weather execution from Tagovailoa and a balanced rush attack kept Miami's faint wild-card hopes flickering amid a brutal remaining schedule. The Jets' offense managed only field goals and turnovers, with Brady Cook's and Tyrod Taylor's picks fueling Miami's explosion.
Here we'll try to look at and discuss the Miami Dolphins' playoff chances and their updated odds after their Week 14 win over the Jets.
Why Miami’s postseason odds remain bleak
Miami’s Week 14 win over the Jets was encouraging. However, it did little to alter the Dolphins’ long-term postseason outlook. According to The Athletic's playoff simulator, even if Miami miraculously wins its final four games to finish 10-7, its chances of making the playoffs sit at just 16 percent. That's a shockingly low reward for an eight-game winning streak. As of today, with the Dolphins at 6-7, those same models give them less than a 1 percent chance of sneaking into the postseason.
The biggest problem isn’t Miami’s momentum. It's the standings and the tiebreakers. The Dolphins are currently the 11th seed in a conference where the Bills, Chargers, Texans, and Colts all own at least six conference wins. Miami, by contrast, is just 3-6 in AFC games. That becomes catastrophic in tiebreak scenarios. Even with teams directly ahead of them faltering, the Dolphins would need a mathematically improbable series of collapses from several clubs to leapfrog into the seventh seed.
Worse, two of those teams, which are Houston and Indianapolis, already hold head-to-head wins over Miami. That further buries the Dolphins in tiebreak priority. The Ravens, who also defeated the Dolphins earlier in the season, add yet another obstacle to an already tortuous path.
Brutal remaining schedule
If Miami hopes to climb back into the playoff conversation, Week 15 against Pittsburgh is effectively a season-elimination game. The Steelers are fighting for the AFC North crown and won’t be an easy out at home. Cincinnati follows. That is a theoretically easier opponent given their 4-9 record. However, the Bengals have been competitive and remain dangerous.
The final stretch becomes even more punishing. The Buccaneers (7-6) remain in a heated NFC South battle, while the Patriots (11-2) are chasing the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Those games offer Miami almost zero room for error.
Realistically, Miami needs to win at least three of the next four to finish 9-8 and hope chaos ensues above them. To finish 10-7, they must run the table. That's something they haven’t done over a four-week stretch in two years. And as the playoff projections make clear, even perfection may not be enough.
Encouraging but not season-changing
Miami’s victory against the Jets showcased some of the offensive firepower fans have been yearning for all season. Tagovailoa delivered an efficient if a bit pedestrian performance, Jaylen Wright broke loose for 107 rushing yards, and the Dolphins showed balance and poise in key moments.
Even in celebration, though, warning signs loomed. Miami’s defense allowed 3.8 yards per carry to a struggling Jets ground game. That's an issue that could be exploited by the Steelers next week. Miami also remains weighed down by a minus-12 point differential on the year. That's a reliable indicator that their record may be inflated by narrow, unsustainable wins.
Only three teams have been hotter in recent weeks. Those are the Patriots, Broncos, and Texans. Yet unlike those teams, Miami has no margin for error and no favorable tiebreak angles. In that sense, the Dolphins aren’t merely fighting for wins. They are fighting the math.
Super Bowl pipe dream
Even in optimistic projections, Miami has just a 4 percent chance to earn a first-round bye and only 2 percent odds to win Super Bowl LX. It’s not impossible. Stranger things have happened in the history of the NFL. That said, the Dolphins’ roadmap now looks less like an uphill climb and more like scaling a cliff.
This is a team that has found life late in the season. However, unless Miami strings together four of its best games in years, not to mention getting significant help elsewhere, the Dolphins may once again find themselves on the outside looking in come January.
The win over the Jets kept the season alive. But the margins are razor-thin, the opponents are unforgiving, and the tiebreakers are merciless. The Dolphins do have hope, but hope even won't cut it when time is running out.
