The 2025-26 NFL season is currently heading toward its stretch run, with teams making final preparations to best put themselves in playoff position (or draft position, depending on the situation). Two of the biggest surprise stories in the NFL this year have been the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots, both of whom sit atop their division with impressive records at this point.
Recently, however, a report from ESPN showed how an advanced stat known as DOVA, or defense-adjusted value over average, exposed these teams for being at least somewhat fraudulent.
“The underlying stats say the Pats are not even close to being the best team in the league. In fact, DVOA has them 17th with a below-average rating,” reported Aaron Schatz of ESPN.com.
Schatz also made note of the Patriots' insanely easy schedule up to this point in the season, which many fans have pointed to as reason for their 10-2 record.
“New England has played a remarkably easy schedule so far this season, particularly when it comes to opposing offenses. The average Pats opponent so far has a DVOA of minus-15.0%, which would be the easiest schedule ever measured,” he reported.
Meanwhile, the stat didn't have great news for Bears fans either.
“DVOA suggests that the Bears' success might be a mirage. Chicago currently ranks just 22nd in DVOA and has the lowest DVOA ever measured for an 8-3 team,” reported Schatz.
He also noted that “schedule strength is also playing a big role in Chicago's low DVOA rating,” with Chicago having played the second-easiest schedule this year, behind only New England.
While the Patriots and Bears both have blown away expectations this year, the fact remains that they will likely be the two teams that lower-seeded teams will be trying to get in position to play in the postseason, as opposed to other, more proven playoff opponents.
