The Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen were the last team to leave the head-and-shoulders mountain. The Packers had been there when they traded
for Micah Parsons, but they’ve flopped. But after just five weeks, it’s plain to see. The 2025 Super Bowl race is chaotic and getting worse.
All it took to cap things off was a team like the New England Patriots strolling into Buffalo and taking the game away from Josh Allen and the Bills at the end. This should not have happened, but it shows how delicate the balance of power has become.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Yes, the Bills remain as the NFL’s top team. And the Lions are the best bet to meet them in the Super Bowl. But it feels like that won’t happen because of the way the season is trending.
Staying on top a problem in the 2025 NFL
One of the things NFL analysts love is having a few times rise above the crowd. Then they can make blanket statements and boost their egos when they are “proven” right. In reality, they’re just stating the obvious and making it sound like they’re in the know.
Unfortunately, that may not fly this year. And the reasons come from both ends of the spectrum. The teams at the top, like the Bills, Lions, Eagles, Buccaneers, and Colts, have too many flaws. The teams near the bottom have just enough juice to make them sweat.
Yes, this is the way the NFL is supposed to be. It’s all about parity, right? Only this year, it’s looking like parity on steroids.
So what’s going on in the NFL?
For one thing, the NFL has made a clown show for offenses. And the main culprit is the kickoff rules. Oh, it’s so exciting the every kickoff is an adventure, right? Teams are running back more kicks, and drives are starting at the 30, 35, and 40-plus yard lines.
But it’s making a mockery of the sport. Teams can start at their own 35-yard line without lifting a finger. Shorter distances to go for touchdowns will create more scoring opportunities. That’s great for the fans, right?
Not really. Football is a historical game. I mean, if all people wanted to see were touchdowns, then play every game like the college overtime rule. All drives would start at the opponent’s 25-yard line. There would be bunches of touchdowns. Scores would be like 68-65, or worse.
Of course, fans would reject this as “not real football.” So if you agree with that thought, think about drives starting at the 30-yard line as an average. All the NFL has done is shorten the playing field. The league has made it easier to score touchdowns, and nobody seems to be talking about it.
And when you make it easier for lesser teams to score touchdowns, you get more upsets. The NFL rubs its hands together as attendance swells because the “any given Sunday” thing has gone into hyperdrive.
Another thing that should drive NFL purists crazy is the ease of getting three points. Teams barely have to crack the 50-yard line for a makable field goal. The NFL needs to change the rules on field goals. They’ve made kickers a big weapon. But who comes to a game to watch those guys?
The Cowboys have an advantage with the distance and accuracy of kicker Brandon Aubrey. But teams are catching up. Dallas’ advantage has shrunk to a handful of yards. Before long, kickers will get criticized for missing 60-plus-yard field goal attempts. That’s how easy they have become. It’s no longer a distance thing. Just accuracy.
A fringe contender might reach the Super Bowl
Let’s look at the true Super Bowl contenders right now. It’s the Bills, Lions, Eagles, Packers, and Broncos. That’s it.
Then there’s a group of teams that would be offended not to be in the first group. That would be the Buccaneers, Colts, 49ers, Rams, and Chiefs. But none of those teams has a true Super Bowl look in 2025.
Then we have a handful of teams who seem to be good enough to get hot at the right time and win playoff games. Those teams are the Seahawks, Jaguars, Commanders, Steelers, and, believe it or not, the Cowboys.
That’s 15 teams with six more — Chargers, Vikings, Patriots, Ravens, Texans, and Falcons — trying to stay in the picture.
Things will surely get better and shake out as the year goes along. Somebody will get hot, right? But it only took five weeks to rid the league of an undefeated team, the earliest such occurrence in over a decade, according to NFL.com.
Don’t miss this part of the equation
Injuries always go a long way toward deciding things in the postseason. If a top team loses its quarterback, it automatically takes a step back. See Joe Burrow and the Bengals for evidence.
But we’ve had chaos this year, and we’re not even halfway home. If a fringe team, say the Cowboys, gets injured players back on the field while other teams lose key contributors, that’s a pretty big swing.
Another issue is the potential absence of a team like the Ravens. Do you think Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will be sad if the Ravens and Lamar Jackson miss the playoffs? The Ravens looked like a sure bet to be the team to beat in the AFC when they led the Bills late in the fourth quarter of their season-opening battle. Since then, not much has gone right for the Ravens.
What can the NFL do?
Change the kickoff rules. Put the ball back to the 25-yard line. Stop making it so easy to score touchdowns.
The NFL can’t do anything about key injuries. It’s part of the game. But it can stop making games into high-scoring affairs just because there’s less real estate to conquer.
