Week 5 went off without a hitch, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won a thriller against the Seattle Seahawks. Now, they will host the San Francisco 49ers, with both teams 4-1 and looking to get their fifth win. There will be many Buccaneers-49ers matchups to watch. But which of these will be the Buccaneers' keys to victory? While there will be several key factors to consider, one stands out as the Buccaneers' biggest matchup advantage this coming weekend.
Tampa Bay is currently favored by three points to beat San Francisco, according to FanDuel. With the game being at Raymond James Stadium, oddsmakers believe the Bucs have the slight edge.
The Niners have won their four games with key plays, while also using the majority of the football field. Meanwhile, the Bucs have aired it out and won shootouts against opponents, while the defense has struggled to play well consistently. Despite all that, the Buccaneers' key to victory lies in a defensive matchup and flipping the game on its head. Significantly, the Buccaneers' biggest matchup advantage will come in the trenches.
The 49ers struggle in Tampa Bay
Although the Niners are 4-1, things are not all good in Santa Clara. The 49ers have struggled to run the football, and defenses have stuffed Christian McCaffrey in the backfield more often than not. Currently, the Niners rank just 28th in rushing yards per game, averaging just 85.2 yards per game. Part of this has to do with a shaky offensive line that has struggled to do its job, being unable to open holes to let McCaffrey run through.
Trent Williams was once the most reliable run blocker for the Niners. However, he has struggled this season at pass protection and been inconsistent in run blocking. Ben Bartch had a preseason injury, which has held him out of action since Week 1. Seventh-round pick Connor Colby has struggled to replace him, being unable to contain both speed and power rushers.
Center Jake Brendel is strong, but has not always been up to speed on the line. Likewise, Dominick Puni has regressed, possibly due to injuries from the preseason. Defensive linemen seem to overpower him. Finally, Colton McKivitz has not handled quicker and agile pass rushers well, and even let Mac Jones get hit after a missed assignment against the Los Angeles Rams.
How the Buccaneers' defense has fared
The Buccaneers' defense has had some injuries and has not been able to field. Unfortunately, the defense has also struggled to keep points off the board, ranking 23rd in points allowed per game. The Bucs have not had the most effective pass rush, ranking just 18th in sacks. Likewise, they are just 20th in interceptions.
When the Bucs opened the season against the Atlanta Falcons, they sacked quarterback Michael Penix once. But they contained Bijan Robinson, holding him to 12 rushes for 24 yards. The defense played significantly better the following week against the Houston Texans, sacking CJ Stroud three times and holding Nick Chubb to 12 rushes for 43 yards. Then, the defense struggled against the New York Jets. While they sacked Tyrod Taylor four times, they also allowed him to run eight times for 48 yards.
The Bucs contained Saquon Barkley the following week, allowing just 19 rushes for 43 yards. However, they also allowed Jalen Hurts to run nine times for 62 yards. When the Bucs faced the Seattle Seahawks the following week, they allowed Sam Darnold to go off for 341 yards and four touchdowns, being unable to sack him once. Additionally, they also allowed Kenneth Walker III to run 10 times for 86 yards.
The Buccaneers' biggest matchup advantage
The biggest matchup undoubtedly will be Vita Vea going against Puni. So far, he has six solo tackles and two sacks, and will be looking to get things going against Puni and the Niners. Vea's size and power will be one of the Buccaneers' keys to victory. Just as others have stopped the Niners' running game, Vea will be one of the critical factors in containing McCaffrey and closing the lanes for him.
Vea will need to overpower Puni in order to get to the running backs. By containing the running game, that sets the Niners up for longer third-down situations. When that happens, it allows Vea and the other pass rushers free room to get to Mac Jones. If Jones is in a situation where he needs an extra second to throw, it allows the Bucs' defense to have an advantage and stall the San Francisco offense.
Everyone knows the Buccaneers can score. But the biggest key to winning the game against the 49ers is for the defense to stop Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco offense. The Niners will attempt to utilize quick passes. Therefore, Vea must be ready to get his hand up and disrupt the offense. If he can do that, the Bucs will beat the 49ers this weekend.
