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In the first season of the Tom Brady era, few people knew what to expect from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The team still had standout receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but the loss of Brady plus the departure of numerous key defensive players left fans with more worries than hopes.
Instead, with new quarterback Baker Mayfield at the helm, the Bucs overcame deficiencies on both sides of the ball to retain the NFC South crown and return to the playoffs for the fourth straight season. This team was just 4-7 at one point but won five of its last six games thanks to some strong performances from Mayfield and improved play on the defensive side of the ball.
Tampa Bay's reward is a home Wild Card matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles scuttled down the stretch, losing five of their last six games, but this Philly team is coming off a near-miss in Super Bowl LVII and still capable of creating havoc in the playoffs.
Mayfield's late-season play will give Buccaneers fans hope of a long playoff run, but the team's struggles running the ball is the fatal flaw that will doom them in the postseason.
Lack of a running game
In an era of rushing futility, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers still managed to be the worst of the worst this season. The Bucs rank last in the NFL both in total rushing yards and yards per carry. Running back Rachaad White epitomized the team's inefficiency on the ground. White was tied for second in the NFL with 272 carries, yet he was 14th in rushing yards and did not even eclipse 1,000 yards on the ground. No Tampa back averaged better than White's 3.6 yards per carry — a further testament to the team's futility.
In games with at least 99 rushing yards, this team is 6-1. When they fail to crack the 70-yard mark on the ground, the Buccaneers are 0-4. Baker Mayfield is a good quarterback, but he is not good enough to carry the team when the running game is unproductive. In those four contests with less than 70 rushing yards, Mayfield's passer rating has not eclipsed 92, and three of his five worst games this season in terms of passer rating came in games where the Buccaneers posted their lowest rushing totals.
The Eagles do struggle to defend the pass (second-most passing yards allowed per game) but it is difficult to imagine a one-dimensional Bucs offense having success against the Philly defense. When the two teams faced off earlier this season, the Eagles held the Buccaneers to just 41 yards on the ground and 174 total yards — Tampa's lowest totals of the season in both categories. By taking away the run early, the Eagles were able to feast on Mayfield, forcing him into two turnovers in a game that never felt as close as the 25-11 score line (in favor of Philly) felt.
Both teams have come a long way since that Week 3 contest. Tampa Bay has seen Baker Mayfield develop into a quarterback who can make plays and guide his team to victory. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has established a proclivity for turning the ball over on offense while its defense has often struggled.
Bucs fans will like their chances against the Eagles better than they did earlier in the year, but the team's lack of a rushing attack will be its biggest hindrance to playoff success.
