Two teams on the verge of being eliminated from playoff contention square off as the Philadelphia Flyers pay a visit to the Ottawa Senators. It's time to continue our NHL odds series with a Flyers-Senators prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Flyers come to Ottawa attempting to stave off playoff elimination. Sitting 12 points behind Pittsburgh with nine games left to play, they are on the verge of mathematical elimination. To avoid elimination, the Flyers have won four straight games, including wins over the Canadiens and Panthers in that time. Ottawa is coming off a win over the Panthers but has lost seven of their last ten games. To stay with any hope of making the playoffs, a win over the Flyers is a must.
Here are the Flyers-Senators NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NHL Odds: Flyers-Senators Odds
Philadelphia Flyers: +1.5 (-182)
Ottawa Senators: -1.5 (+150)
Over: 6.5 (-110)
Under: 6.5 (-110)
How To Watch Flyers vs. Senators
TV: TSN5/NBCSP/ESPN+
Stream: NHLPP/ESPN+
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
*Watch NHL games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Flyers Could Cover The Spread
The Flyers' recent winning streak has shown two different styles of winning. The first two games were high scoring and they put a ton in the net, scoring 11 goals in two games. The next two were more defensive, getting a shutout and then a 3-2 win over the Canadiens. Regardless of how they are winning, the penalty kill has been fantastic. In the last four games, they have given up one goal when man-down in 14 chances. They have not given up a power-play goal in three straight games, and considering this has been an area of weakness this year, it is a good sign for them to win some games.
One area of struggle that has not improved has been the man-advantage. On the power play the Flyers are the worst in the NHL, only converting 15.4% of man-advantage opportunities. They have scored only once on the power play in this four-game win streak, doing so in eight tries. If they can get one power-play goal, and still do well on the penalty kill, they will be in a position to win this game.
With Carter Hart still day-to-day, there is a good chance Felix Sandstrom is back in the net for the Flyers. He got his second win of the season in the 3-2 victory over the Canadiens, saving 27 of 29 shots he faced. He has been struggling this year, with only one other win, and a goal-against average over 3.6 in the other 12 games. If he can repeat his performance tonight against the Senators, the win streak will continue for the Flyers.
Why The Senators Could Cover The Spread
The Senators did the best they have done in a while in converting chances. They scored five goals in 27 games and that is because they were getting themselves into prime scoring opportunities. Nothing is more prime than having an extra man on the ice. They converted three of four power-play chances on the night while stopping all four of the Panthers. Still, the Senators were outshot in the game for the sixth time in the last ten games.
They are also not controlling the puck well, as they have had poor offensive zone rates in four of the last five games. It is not just a gluttony of giveaways that is causing this, but also, the inability to take the puck away or consistently win faceoffs. The last game was the first time in the last six that the Senators won over 55% of their face-offs. Still, they only managed five takeaways on the night and allowed Florida to remain on offense for far too long. At the same time, they gave the puck away 11 times on the night, including four from defenseman Travis Hamonic.
Cam Talbot is expected to return for the first time since March 4th tonight. He was wonderful in four of his last five starts before the injury. He had four wins, and a save percentage over .900 in four of the five starts. He also let in zero goals against the Islanders before getting hurt in that game and missing a month. Then four starts ensued before missing time again. Injury is a concern for Talbot, but when he has been on the ice, he has been solid.
Final Flyers-Senators Prediction & Pick
The return of Talbot should give the Senators a boost. They also have shown what they can do on the man-advantage. This game will come down to those situations. The Senators have the fourth most penalty minutes in the NHL and the Flyers rank eighth. If one team can dominate those opportunities, they will win the game. This should be a close one, and while the Senators should win, they do not cover.
Final Flyers-Senators Prediction & Pick: Flyers +1.5 (-182)
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