The Winnipeg Jets suffered a brutal blow when Connor Hellebuyck's knee injury caused him to undergo arthroscopic surgery. Last year's Hart, Vezina, and Jennings Trophy winner has to miss 4-6 weeks with the injury, something the team can't afford. They are already three points out of the wild-card race in the Western Conference and sitting in 26th in the league. It's up to Eric Comrie to get them back into contention.
One reason why the Jets weren't on their President's Trophy pace from last season was that Hellebuyck wasn't in his Hart form. The American netminder still owns a .913 save percentage and a 2.51 goals-against average this season, but it was his save percentage sitting over .920 in the past three seasons that put the Jets over the top.
It wasn't a sustainable strategy for Winnipeg. A save percentage above .920 is unheard of in this era, with the average save percentage sitting at .900 last season. There was no doubt that Hellebuyck was the most valuable to his team last season, as those numbers showed an average save percentage might've had them closer to the middle of the pack than the top team in the league.
Even though Hellebuyck's base numbers took a drop this season, he was still one of the best goaltenders in the league. He was the fourth-best in goals saved above expected, according to MoneyPuck, a stat that measures just how much a goaltender bails out their defense. In 14 games this season, the goaltender had 12.5 GSAx.
Can Eric Comrie do the job as Connor Hellebuyck's replacement?
The team seems to have confidence in Comrie, but the GSAx numbers don't lie. While Hellebuyck saved 12.5 goals for his defense, Comrie is sitting 54th in the league with -0.8 GSAx. If that trend continues for the rest of Hellebuyck's absence, the Jets are going to quickly find out what it looks like when you don't have a goalie saving you night in and night out.
Some people roll their eyes at advanced analytics, but the actual production on the ice isn't great, either. Comrie started each game since Hellebuyck's injury, losing every game and allowing 3+ goals in each. His numbers are now a measly 3.02 goals-against average and a .897 save percentage.
Ironically, the Jets are about to see a 4-6-week sample size from a goaltender with a league-average save percentage, and the early returns aren't great. If anything, the NHL award voters will have some vindication that Hellebuyck really is the Most Valuable Player in the league if the Jets continue to plummet.
The Jets are going to have to see some improvement in their goaltending this week if they're going to stick with Comrie. If not, it might be up to prospect Thomas Milic to get some more starts, or the team might venture into the trade market for a stopgap replacement.
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