The Big Ten regular season champion is all but confirmed, as the only chance for Purdue to share the title is with two losses and two wins for Illinois. However, Northwestern needs a win over Michigan State to stay in third in the playoff seeding. Northwestern took the first meeting by a score of 88-74 and has won four of the last five matchups. It is time to continue our men's college basketball odds series with a Northwestern-Michigan State prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Northwestern's climb to third in the Big Ten may have been a surprise, but they have some big wins recently to back it up. The Wildcats do the job of winning games they are supposed to win and losing to superior teams. However, over the last four games, three victories, with two of them as underdogs. Northwestern is 7-3 against the spread over their last ten games.
Michigan State would have been 12-6 or 11-7 if they hadn't gone through a rough stretch over their last three games. The Spartans were double-digit favorites in two of the past three games but laid eggs against Iowa and Ohio State. Michigan State's failure to beat these teams means the difference between them being in eighth place or tied with their opponents in this matchup. With two wins over Iowa and Ohio State, Michigan State would have been 11-7 and facing off with the Wildcats for the third seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Instead, they need wins in their final two games to have a favorable matchup in the tournament.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Northwestern-Michigan State Odds
Northwestern: +8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +290
Michigan State: -8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -375
Over: 136.5 (-110)
Under: 136.5 (-110)
How to Watch Northwestern vs. Michigan State
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
TV: Big Ten Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Northwestern Will Cover The Spread/Win
There is a lot on the line for Northwestern in this game. A loss will bring them to 11-8 in the conference, bringing Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Iowa back into contention to pass them in the standings. A lot would need to happen to become a reality, but a loss could drop them as low as sixth in the standings by season's end. Northwestern finishes the season with a matchup against Minnesota, who is also chasing them in the standings, so they need to win at least one of the last two games.
Why Michigan State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Michigan State's offense is shooting the ball efficiently, hitting 46.8% from the floor. They are also great three-point shooters, ranking 38th in the nation in efficiency. This will be an area of strength against the Wildcats, as they are among the worst three-point defending teams in college basketball. Northwestern is a good defensive team, allowing just 69.9 points per game. However, that number rises to 73.6 on the road.
Michigan State's defense will give Northwestern some trouble in this game, as they allow 66.5 points per game. Northwestern is averaging 74.4, but they are sub-70 on the road. Michigan State's opponents struggle to put up points at the Jack Breslin Center, as the Spartans hold them to 62.7 points per game at home.
Final Northwestern-Michigan State Prediction & Pick
Michigan State has been the victim of three consecutive losses, with two coming as double-digit favorites against Iowa and Ohio State. The Spartans haven't been playing their best basketball, but it isn't likely that they will allow themselves to lose three straight games at home. They've been 13-4 at home this season, and a home losing streak to end the season would leave a sour taste in their mouths. Take the Spartans to win their home finale and make the middle of the Big Ten a whole lot tighter.
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Final Northwestern-Michigan State Prediction & Pick: Michigan State -8.5 (-110)
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