Three years on from their Western Conference Final matchup in the bubble, the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers will once again fight it out for a spot in the NBA Finals in 2023. The Nuggets head into the series as the number one seed, a prolific offensive unit led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and a very capable supporting cast. That offense was able to slice through a lacklustre Phoenix Suns’ defense with ease in the Western Conference Semifinals, but the Lakers have been the best defensive team in the playoffs and won’t give up points nearly as easily.
This is a series filled to the brim with star power, with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Nikola Jokic all among the best players in the world and Jamal Murray capable of lifting his game to a similar level on his night – something which seems to happen more often during the postseason. But while it looms as a tight and tense series, there is good reason for the Nuggets to be optimistic about their chances of advancing through to the NBA Finals. Here are three reasons why the Nuggets can beat the Lakers in their upcoming NBA Western Conference Finals series.
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1. The Nuggets’ home court advantage
The great benefit of finishing as the number one seed, aside from the fact that it means you’re a really good team, is having home court advantage at least up until the NBA Finals. The Nuggets are one of the most well-placed teams in the league to capitalize on that fact – even if LeBron James thinks that fact is nullified in the playoffs. With the exception of the Memphis Grizzlies, they had the best record in the league on their home floor during the regular season, boasting a 34-7 record at Ball Arena. That certainly hasn’t changed in the postseason, during which they’re undefeated in six games in Denver – compare that with a 2-3 record on the road.
Against the Lakers this season, a similar story unfolded. Of their four matchups, the Lakers won the two at Staples Center by 18 and 11 points, while the Nuggets won the two at Ball Arena by 11 and 13 points.
This is a series which could very easily go down to the wire, and in which home court advantage looks likely to be significant. This series could easily get to Game 7, and if it does, Denver getting to play on their home floor could literally decide the series.
2. Paint scoring
The Nuggets are one of the most prolific paint scoring teams in the league. In their 23 regular season games following the All-Star break, they scored 54.8 points in there per game – good for fifth in the league. During that same time period, the Lakers gave up 54.1 paint points per game – the seventh most in the league. They’ve tightened that up a bit in the playoffs, but that’s in no small part due to the fact that one of the two teams they’ve played so far was the Golden State Warriors, who obviously rely a lot more on outside shooting.
Anthony Davis is one of, if not the, best defenders in the league, and his ability to alter shots inside – and deter opposition from even bothering with them – has been plain to see over his past few games. Him aside, however, the Lakers don’t have a lot in terms of interior defensive presence. If Denver can manage to drag him away from the paint, it will open up plenty of opportunities for them to capitalize on their own inside scoring proficiency, and the Lakers’ relative lack defense in there.
3. The Nuggets can scorch the Lakers from the outside
In the modern-day NBA, three-point shooting is a relatively simple way to gauge performance, and very often it will be closely tied to the end result of a game. For the Lakers, this has been an Achilles heel for much of the season. They shot just 34.6% from long range throughout the course of the season, and that’s dropped even further to 33.1% during the playoffs. The Nuggets, meanwhile, shot 37.9% during the regular season – the second best in the league – and they’ve remained at exactly that number during the playoffs to date, too.
Post the All-Star break those numbers did admittedly flip, with the Nuggets shooting a lot worse than usual and the Lakers a lot better. Based on their personnel, however, there’s no doubt that the Nuggets have a distinct advantage from beyond the arc, and normality has been restored in the playoffs. Of Denver’s starters, Aaron Gordon is the only player who hasn’t shot over 38% from long range this season, with both Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope sitting well over 40% and Murray and Jokic not too far behind.
Compare that with the Lakers. Davis doesn’t really shoot threes anymore and when he does, he misses them, while LeBron is at just 32.1% for the season and a woeful 26.3% in the playoffs. If Jarred Vanderbilt is on the floor, there’s another non-shooter, while if it’s Dennis Schroder starting he’s not all that much better, hitting 32.9% of his three-point attempts this season. That leaves Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell as their primary outside threats, both of whom are connecting on just below 40% of their attempts this year. This is an area in which the Nuggets have a clear advantage over the Lakers, and could easily prove a difference-maker in this series.
Three years ago, the Nuggets were comprehensively outplayed by the Lakers in the bubble, going down in just five games. But this is a different team entirely. They’ve proven to be a prolific offensive team throughout the course of the season and can comprehensively outplay the Lakers both on the inside and out, and coupled with their home court advantage, can get their revenge for their 2020 Western Conference Finals loss.
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