With less than 100 days until the start of the 2024 college football season, each passing weekend seems to stretch longer and longer. Now that spring practices have concluded and the spring transfer portal window is closed, there's nothing left to do but wait. To prepare for the upcoming season and pass the time, we'll break down the Big Ten post-spring power rankings.
Before we delve into the rankings, we must acknowledge the significant changes the Big Ten will undergo this year. With the additions of former Pac-12 members USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington, the conference will now comprise of 18 schools. These four teams will be the first new members to join the Big Ten since Maryland and Rutgers in 2014.
This move further solidifies the dominance that the Big Ten and the SEC, which will expand to 16 schools this season, have over college football.
Despite disappointing many college football purists, it must be noted that the upcoming season promises a new level of interest with several intriguing matchups on the horizon. The big question is, how will longstanding Big Ten rivals Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State football and other programs adapt to this new landscape? These teams have long dominated the conference. Furthermore, how will the addition of these West Coast members impact the power rankings?
1. Ohio State
The Ohio State football team is arguably the most consistent team in college football history. This trend doesn't seem likely to change anytime soon. However, the fanbase in Columbus is restless after three consecutive losses to arch-rival Michigan. To address this, head coach Ryan Day has assembled an incredibly talented group of transfers to bolster their already impressive roster, including Quinshon Judkins from Ole Miss and Alabama's Caleb Downs. Nonetheless, questions remain about who will lead the team at quarterback this season, with transfer Will Howard being the favorite.
The biggest challenge for Day and the Ohio State football team in 2024 will be meeting astronomical expectations, as the fanbase most likely is demanding nothing less than a National Championship appearance. ESPN currently gives them a 19 percent chance of making the title game and a 10.5 percent chance of winning it.
2. Oregon Ducks
Despite not yet playing a game in the conference, the Oregon football team is already ranked among the top two. Oregon lost only two games last season, both to runner-up Washington, who played Michigan for the National Championship. Now, much of that team from last season, along with some new additions, is moving to the Big Ten in 2024. The Ducks rank third in ESPN's Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings, which is based on returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history, with a score of 30.8.
The Ducks aim to make a strong impression in their inaugural season in the Big Ten. They have a strong roster, including Oklahoma transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who replaces Heisman Trophy nominee Bo Nix from last year. There are few weak spots in this Oregon football team.
3. Penn State
Under James Franklin's leadership, the Nittany Lions football program has been a model of consistency in the Big Ten. However, unlike Ohio State football, they have always fallen short of reaching the pinnacle, except for their one conference championship in 2016. With the Big Ten now completely restructured without divisions, there is hope that this change will help the Nittany Lions take the next step, especially with the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams. Additionally, fans of Penn State football can look forward to another year of quarterback Drew Allar, who will now be under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.
According to ESPN's latest Football Power Index (FPI) ratings, the Nittany Lions have the second-best chance of winning the Big Ten at 22.2 percent.
4. Michigan
How did the national champions fall so far down in these Big Ten power rankings? Not even at No. 2? Well, this is set to be a much different Michigan football team than last year. And that starts at the very top with the departure of Jim Harbaugh to the NFL. Along with him, the entire defensive coaching staff and nearly 20 starters have left. Many of those starters came from the offense, including quarterback JJ McCarthy, running back Blake Corum, and the offensive linemen who protected and created lanes for them.
However, there is still talent for offensive coordinator-turned-head coach Sherron Moore, who went 4-0 as interim head coach in Harbaugh's absence last year. Except for perhaps Alabama, no team in the country, in terms of their program, will undergo more changes than Michigan football, which is why they are just breaking into the top five.
5. USC
What will USC football in 2024 look like now that they're in the Big Ten? Hopefully, it will be better than last season when the Trojans fell short of expectations, despite having Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Therefore, replacing Williams will be priority No. 1 for head coach Lincoln Riley. This won't be easy, but Miller Moss looked promising in the Holiday Bowl. The tougher task will be fixing the atrocious defense from the last two seasons.
To address this, Riley brought in D'Anton Lynn, a young and talented defensive coordinator from rival UCLA. It's unlikely that all of their defensive issues will be resolved overnight, but any improvement will be welcomed. This year's USC football team has some question marks, but it also has intrigue and upside.
6. Wisconsin
Perhaps this ranking is a bit generous, but the list becomes more ambiguous from this point onward. This isn't the same old ground-and-pound Wisconsin football team of years past, now under Luke Fickell, who will enter his second year in Madison. The offense has undergone a transformation, and the question now is who will take the helm at quarterback between Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke and Braedyn Locke.
The Badgers had an inconsistent season last year, mirroring their 7-6 performance from the previous year. Unfortunately for them, even if they improve, they face one of the toughest schedules in the country, playing against Alabama, USC, Penn State, and Oregon, all of which will most likely be ranked in the preseason top 25.
7. Iowa
Iowa football has won eight or more games in nine out of the last 11 seasons. They won 10 games last year with the worst offense in the country. Kirk Ferentz has built a program that can compete in the Big Ten with hard-fought defenses. However, this isn't the same Big Ten anymore. Fortunately, they won't face new offensive powerhouses like USC and Oregon. They will face a rebuilding Washington and fellow offensively challenged UCLA.
Consistency is key to Iowa's placement in the Big Ten power rankings. Even though they have few answers at quarterback, their defense will keep them in games, some of which they will likely win.
8. Washington
This won't be the same Washington football team that reached the national championship game last season. Far from it. Departed are Michael Penix Jr., Rome Odunze, and perhaps most importantly, head coach Kalen DeBoer, who left for Alabama.
Replacing DeBoer will be Jedd Fisch, who completely transformed a forgotten Arizona program. However, with 10 starters gone on both offense and defense, little remains of last year's championship team. It's safe to say this is a rebuilding year for Washington.
9. Nebraska
Nebraska football sneaks into the top 10 for two reasons: Matt Rhule and true freshman five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola. It would be unfair to expect too much from Raiola in his freshman season, but the hype is already building after he chose the Cornhuskers over the Bulldogs. The hype is matched by Rhule's coaching. In both of his previous college coaching stints at Temple and Baylor, he increased his team's win totals by an average of almost 40 percent from Year 1 to Year 2. Nebraska went 5-7 last year. Making a bowl game at the very least is feasible.
10. Rutgers
It took four seasons, but Greg Schiano got Rutgers back to a winning record, capped off with a Pinstripe Bowl victory over Miami last season. Some believe Rutgers could be a dark horse in the Big Ten. To do so, they'll have to be less one-dimensional, which is where Minnesota transfer quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis comes in. Watch out for Rutgers to potentially upset some teams.
11. Maryland
The Terrapins will finally be without quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, who became the Big Ten's all-time leading passer. To replace him, former NC State quarterback MC Morris will step in. Under Mike Locksley, Maryland has posted a winning season for the last three years. Even with the new members in USC and Oregon, they should continue that trend.
12. Northwestern
David Braun was thrust into a near-impossible situation last year when he unexpectedly had to take over for former head coach Pat Fitzgerald after he was fired when team hazing allegations came to light. Braun had barely settled into Evanston when he was handed the reins. Yet, somehow the Wildcats managed eight wins. It's probably unrealistic to expect a repeat, but their surprising season earns them the No. 12 spot in our Big Ten post-spring power rankings.
13. Illinois
The best overall player on the Illini roster last season was defensive lineman Jer'Zhan Newton, who now plays for the Washington Commanders. Despite this, Illinois struggled defensively, allowing nearly 30 points per game. This means the offense will need to step up if Illinois wants to compete in the new-look Big Ten. Will quarterback Luke Altmyer rise to the occasion?
14. Michigan State
It might be an understatement to say that Michigan State was the biggest loser in the spring transfer portal. The team had already suffered in the winter portal, and then lost defensive linemen Simeon Barrow and Derrick Harmon in the spring. New head coach Jonathan Smith, along with transfer quarterback Aidan Chiles, brings promise to the program. However, their success won't be realized in 2024 unless it significantly exceeds expectations.
15. Minnesota
The Golden Gophers have been fairly competitive since PJ Fleck took over in 2017. Excluding the 2020 season, he suffered his worst win-loss record (6-7) since his first season and made a bowl game only on a technicality. Like many Big Ten teams, they often struggled offensively last season, averaging 20.9 points per game. This will have to change in the upcoming season.
16. UCLA
The Bruins might be the least confident team from the Pac-12 coming into the Big Ten in their first season. Chip Kelly is gone, now the offensive coordinator for conference rival Ohio State. Kelly wasn't the only loss, as few starters are returning as well.
17. Purdue
Second-year head coach Ryan Walters will be hoping his second season goes much better than the first. The Boilermakers finished 4-8 last season. Walters will lean on quarterback Hudson Card and hopefully an improved defense as they face a tough schedule with opponents like Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon.
18. Indiana
After putting James Madison on the map, Curt Cignetti left for Indiana, bringing with him tons of optimism. Some significant transfer portal acquisitions should improve this team from their three-win performance last season. However, there might not be a more challenging place for any head coach to begin their career than Indiana, which has recorded no more than eight wins only once in their last 29 seasons.
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