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It is win or go home in game five of the NLDS as the San Diego Padres face the Los Angeles Dodgers. It's time to continue our NLDS odds series with a Padres-Dodgers prediction and pick.
Padres-Dodgers Game 5 Projected Starters
Yu Darvish vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (presumptive)
Yu Darvish (7-3) with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP
Last Start: Darvish started game two of the series, going seven innings, giving up three hits and two walks. He would allow just one run and take the win over the Dodgers.
2024 Road Splits: Darvish is 4-0 on the road in five starts with a 2.63 ERA and a .198 opponent batting average.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2) with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP
Last Start: Yamamoto went three innings in game one of the series, giving up five hits, two walks, and a home run. He would give up five runs but take the no-decision as the Dodgers beat the Padres.
2024 Home Splits: Yamamoto is 3-1 in ten starts at home with a 3.88 ERA and a .250 opponent batting average.
Here are the NLDS Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NLDS Odds: Padres-Dodgers Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-184)
Moneyline: +120
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+152)
Moneyline: -142
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
How to Watch Padres vs. Dodgers Game 5
Time: 8:08 ET/5:08 PT
TV: FOX
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres finished the regular season eighth in the majors in runs scored, while sitting first in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage, and seventh in slugging. Manny Machado led the way this year. He hit .275 with a .325 on-base percentage. Further, he had 29 home runs, 105 RBIs, and scored 77 runs. Scoring runs is something Jurickson Profar did a lot of this year. He hit .280 with a .380 on-base percentage. Profar has 24 home runs, 85 RBIS, and 94 runs scored. Finally, Jackson Merrill was solid. He hit .292 with 24 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 77 runs scored.
In the playoffs, Fernando Tatis has been amazing. He is hitting .500 with a .577 on-base percentage. He has four home runs, seven RBIS, and eight runs scored. Kyle Higashioka has also been great. He is hitting .235 with three home runs, five RBIs, and three runs scored. Finally, Jackson Merrill is producing. He is hitting .286 in the playoffs with a home run, five RBIs, and four runs scored. The Padres are hitting .246 in the postseason with 11 home runs and 30 runs scored in six games.
Why The Dodgers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Dodgers finished the regular season second in runs scored, fourth in batting average, second in on-base percentage, and first in slugging. They were led by Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani hit .310 with a .390 on-base percentage. He had 54 home runs, 130 RBIS, and scored 134 runs. Further, he stole 59 bases this year. Teoscar Hernandez also had a solid season. He hit .272 with a .339 on-base percentage. Hernandez had 33 home runs, 99 RBIs, and 84 runs scored. Freddie Freeman rounded out the top bats on the year. He hit .282 with a .378 on-base percentage. Freeman has 22 home runs, 89 RBIs, and 81 runs scored. Still, Freeman is battling an injury that could limit him in Game 5.
Teoscar Hernandez has also led the way in the playoffs this year. He is hitting .333 with a .412 on-base percentage in the series. He has a home run, six RBIs, and two runs scored. Shohei Ohtani has also been solid. He is hitting just .250 in the series but has a home run, four RBIs, and three runs scored. Finally, Mookie Betts is hitting .267 with a .389 on-base percentage in the playoffs. He has two home runs, three RBIs, and four runs scored. The Dodgers have hit just .244 in the series so far, with seven home runs and 20 runs scored in four games.
Current Dodgers have 266 career at-bats against Yu Darvish. They have hit just .195 against Darvish. Mookie Betts has the most experience but is just 8-23 with a home run and an RBI. Meanwhile, Max Muncy is 10-41 with two home runs and five RBIs. Finally, Will Smith is 6-31 with a home run and two RBIs.
Final Padres-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
The Padres will be sending Yu Darvish to the mound in this one. He was great in game two of the series and has been pitching great as of late. In his last six starts, he has pitched 32.1 innings, giving up 11 runs, and the Padres winning all six games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have not officially named a starter. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is expected to be the starter, but even if he does not start, he should see time into the game. The Dodgers were the favorite in terms of odds to advance over the Padres in the NLDS, and they will stave off elimination for one more game in this one.
Final Dodgers-Padres Prediction & Pick: Dodgers ML (+118)
