New England Patriots guard Joe Thuney was surprised to be offered the franchise tag in March, which would make him the second-highest-paid guard in the NFL and set him up for a massive free agency opportunity in 2021. Thuney is looking for a long-term deal from the team that drafted him in the third round in 2016.

Yet, it's becoming increasingly likely that Thuney will indeed play on the $14.78 million tag for the 2020 season, preventing him from hitting free agency for one year. The 27-year old star left guard would have undoubtedly generated major interest on the market. Thuney has started every possible game (74) over the past four seasons.

New England intends to keep Thuney around for as long as possible, at least according to the statement they released in March:

“Utilizing the franchise designation allows both sides more time to try to reach the goal of a long-term agreement.”

The Patriots have one of the tightest cap situations in the league, and tagging Thuney doesn't ease the books.

Per ESPN's Mike Reiss:

“They currently have the least cap space in the NFL…The Patriots will surely create space in the coming months…and one of the easiest ways to do so would be to sign Thuney to a long-term extension by the July 15 deadline.”

However, as Reiss notes, Thuney's advantageous contract provides him “uncommon leverage, which is a rare spot to be in when meeting coach Bill Belichick at the negotiating table.”

Considering how far apart the two sides still reportedly are in long-term deal talks and with so much uncertainty about the future due to Covid-19, Reiss gives just a 5% chance at the sides reaching a long-term deal this offseason. He gives an 80% chance that Thuney plays 2020 on the tag, with slim chances for a short-term deal or a trade.

Ideally, Thuney will be an essential cog on the line that will protect new quarterback Jarrett Stidham—or whomever the Pats end up rolling with under center.

Thuney had a 97% pass-block win rate in 2019, according to ESPN, the second-best among all guards, behind Baltimore Ravens stalwart Marshal Yanda (98%).