Now that we’re headed down the final stretch of the NBA’s regular season, a few things are clear. First and foremost, the Golden State Warriors have a fantastic shot at defending their championship and might do so in convincing fashion since DeMarcus Cousins hasn’t shown any rust stemming from his Achilles injury. Secondly, a group of teams at the top of the Eastern Conference will make the run to the Finals exhilarating to watch. Finally, James Harden seems like a near lock to win his second-straight league MVP honor as a result of his historic scoring ability.
At one point, the Rookie of the Year race had a clear-cut winner: Luka Doncic. However, the recent emergence of Trae Young has created a debate, along with the presence of three other standouts. Here are the top five ROY candidates.
5. Jaren Jackson Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies)
David Cobb of the Memphis Commercial Appeal recently reported that Jaren Jackson Jr. won’t return “anytime soon” from his quad injury and it makes sense. After all, the Grizzlies aren’t in the playoff hunt and he is now the face of their future since Marc Gasol got traded and Mike Conley is arguably entering his post-prime years with an uncertain future in Memphis.
Jackson has been efficient offensively, shooting 50.6 percent from the field and has shown impressive range for his size, knocking down 35.9 percent (51-of-142) of his three-pointers. His ability to adapt to the modern perimeter-centric style of offensive play coupled with his ability to protect the rim (his 82 blocks rank 2nd among rookies) make him a threat on both ends of the court. He’d probably be higher on this list if he didn’t hack everyone in sight.
4. Marvin Bagley III (Sacramento Kings)
When Marvin Bagley III suffered an apparent knee injury against the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday, the Kings organization and NBA fans everywhere held their breaths in fear. Not only are the Kings in the Western Conference playoff hunt, but Bagley recently seemed to turn the corner.
On the season, the former Duke standout has posted 13.9 points (5th among rookies) on 50.9 percent shooting along with 7.2 rebounds (3rd) in just 24.8 minutes (11th). However, over his last 10 games, he has made the most of a minutes bump, posting 17.5 points and 9.4 boards over 29.1 minutes and in four post All-Star contests, he managed 20.3 points and 10.5 rebounds in 31.5 minutes per game before getting injured.
Although he has been limited by a couple nagging injuries and a lack of early-season playing time, Bagley has shown a lot of promise and should be considered a cornerstone of Sacramento’s bright future. Like Jackson, Bagley’s under-the-radar Rookie of the Year chances were likely destroyed by his recent injury.
3. Deandre Ayton (Phoenix Suns)
Earlier this week, Kelly Oubre showered Deandre Ayton with praise, per Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic.
“It's about channeling that energy and just go out there and be dominant and just be that beast that he is because nobody can stop that kid,” Oubre said. “Like I've never seen anything like it in the flesh and he doesn't even know it yet. It's a blessing because we can grow together and just learn. I can continue to stay in his ear.”
Ayton, who leads NBA rookies with 31 double-doubles and is averaging 16.4 points (3rd among rookies) and 10.5 rebounds (1st) in 30.9 minutes (2nd), is having a quietly-stellar rookie campaign in Phoenix. Overshadowed by the next two rookies on this list, Ayton has shot an impressive 58.8 percent from the floor which ranks 1st among qualified rookies and 8th among all NBA players.
While he struggled to adapt defensively at the beginning of the season, he has also made recent strides and is putting in a lot of effort on that end of the court, according to what he told Reid Forgrave of CBS Sports.
“I'm tired of hearing that,” Ayton said regarding the idea that he doesn’t try defensively. “I went through that in college, and I'm going through it in the NBA. I don't know what you guys want from me. I'm 7'1″ and I'm guarding point guards. I don't understand how much I have to show. I'm guarding the perimeter, running after guards across screens, pin downs, running through dribble-hand-offs and pick-and-roll ball screens – as a seven-foot player! In the NBA I have to protect the rim. I love defense. I'm not struggling on defense. I love to make my opponent look bad.”
Perhaps Ayton’s stock has taken a hit due to the fact that he plays for the lowly Suns, but he has had an encouraging year as a whole despite appearing as inferior in a number of tough matchups against the game’s top veteran centers.
2. Trae Young (Atlanta Hawks)
If you missed the Trae Young train, hop aboard now.
Hawks head coach Lloyd Pierce recently unleashed his young point guard (after the Hawks guaranteed a chance at a high pick in the upcoming draft) and Young has been sensational. Check out what he’s done over his last 15 contests:
Over that span, Young has averaged 23.9 points (21st in the NBA) and 9.0 assists (4th in the NBA). He’s also caught fire from deep, ranking 10th in the entire NBA in made three-pointers per contest (3.1) over 33.1 minutes. On the season, he ranks 2nd among rookies in points per game (17.8), first in assists (7.9) and has played the third-most minutes (30.6).
While Young undoubtedly fought through a learning curve and was held back by his coaching staff numerous times while Jeremy Lin stole his minutes earlier in the season, Pierce and the Hawks brass has seemingly handed him the keys to the organization over the past month and he’s taken the responsibility in stride.
Not only has he been a source of points, but his playmaking skills have been on display.
He also made some history due to his recent play, becoming the 7th player in NBA history to post back-to-back 35-point, five-assist performances as a rookie. Every other player on the list ended up in the Hall of Fame.
While Young will need to make some defensive strides in the future, it looks like he has all the tools to be Atlanta’s building block as a high-usage offensive star. If it wasn’t for the remarkable consistency of the guy below, Young would probably be the clear frontrunner for the award due to his recent surge.
1. Luka Doncic (Dallas Mavericks)
While Young’s recent 15-game surge has been impressive, consider this: over the same span, Luka Doncic has averaged 24.6 points, 9.2 rebounds and 7.3 assists in 33.1 minutes per contest (the same exact playing time as Young in that span).
Not only are those numbers better than Young’s on an overall level, but the lack of hype surrounding his recent play indicates that the entire NBA community has already gotten used to his absurdly-high level of play. Averaging 20.9 points (1st among rookies), 7.3 rebounds and 5.7 assists in 32.2 minutes per contest this season, Doncic has already taken the torch from Dirk Nowitzki in Dallas and was arguably an All-Star snub.
Here’s what the German legend had to say about the youngster earlier this week, per Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report.
“He's really an all-around package on the offensive end, whether it's the shot, drives, floaters, the passes,” Nowitzki said. “He's a big guard, he can see over some of those traps [teams are] throwing at him. His basketball IQ is out of this world for 19. … He'll be fun to watch for Mavs fans for a very long time.”
After watching him carve up his Los Angeles Clippers, coach Doc Rivers shared high praise about the rookie, per Pincus.
“It's unusual,” Rivers said. “LeBron [James], Magic [Johnson], I mean, they're geniuses when you think about it. There are very few guys, but [Doncic] is one of those guys, it looks like.”
While Young’s recent surge has been exciting to watch, Doncic’s numbers over the same span and overall consistency over the course of the full season is why he deserves the Rookie of the Year honor. Although he might not be a unanimous selection anymore, Doncic is arguably putting forth the best rookie campaign since LeBron James and that should be celebrated.
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