On Tuesday, the College Football Playoff board of managers unanimously approved the 5+7 format. The format will outright guarantee the five highest-ranked conference champions inclusion in the new, expanded 12-team field starting in the fall of 2024, along with the seven highest-ranked teams.
Now that the Pac-12 has all but been eliminated, minus the two teams of Oregon State and Washington State, who have come to an agreement on a scheduling partnership with the Mountain West, the CFP could finally come to a deal on this latest agreement, according to Heather Dinich at ESPN. It's an agreement that guarantees the Power Four conference champions (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12) will automatically receive a playoff spot no matter what, while the highest-ranked Group of Five champion (AAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and MAC), will secure another. The rest of the field will all be determined by the rankings themselves.
With us now knowing how the 12-team will be determined, it has likely had most looking ahead toward the fall and the 2024 college football season. So, let's make some early predictions of the CFP field.
1. Georgia (SEC Champion)
With Alabama Nick Saban-less, Georgia football should be the clear No. 1 team in the SEC. That's even with Oklahoma and Texas, who the Bulldogs will face in Austin in October. Still, with the production the Bulldogs have returning, such as quarterback Carson Beck, plus their 2024 No. 1 ranked recruiting class, Georgia will be looking for their third national championship in four years.
2. Oregon (Big Ten Champion)
I'm taking a bit of a swing here but I believe that Oregon football could be one of the best teams in the country in 2024. Dan Lanning has been a great replacement for former Ducks head coach Mario Cristobal and has kept the program running at full speed. Lanning not only has some major production coming back next season but he's also done some great work in the transfer portal, particularly that of quarterback Dillon Gabriel and wide receiver Evan Stewart. The Ducks make it big in their first season in the Big Ten.
3. Clemson (ACC Champion)
This is still where the College Football Playoff committee has yet to answer a much-needed question: Do the Power Four conference champions automatically jump to the top-4, even over higher-ranked teams? Because once it gets to the ACC and Big 12 Champions, that could very well be what we're looking at. The Tigers definitely had a down season last year, finishing 9-4 and 4-4 in the ACC. It wouldn't be surprising to see them claim back the conference in 2024.
4. Utah (Big 12 Champion)
One of the most consistent programs over the last 20 years has been Utah football. That's mostly because of Kyle Whittingham, who has been there since 2005 as the head coach. With the Pac-12 dissolved, the Utes will now look to bring their consistency over to another conference in the Big 12 in 2024. This is a harder conference to predict seeing as how it has been completely altered with new teams coming in and other teams leaving. There could be a lot in the mix, but I'll stick with the most consistent, that being the Utes and Whittingham.
5. Texas (at-large)
There was a part of me that wanted to put Texas football as the SEC Champions, but that's just hard to imagine in their first season in the conference. Plus, the Longhorns are losing some major offensive production next season, although starting quarterback Quinn Ewers and backup Arch Manning are returning. You couple that with the way that Sarkisian has recruited at the high school and transfer portal level and this team will still be very much in contention and just on the outside of the top-4.
6. Notre Dame (at-large)
Marcus Freeman has had two rather successful seasons as the Fighting Irish's head coach after taking over for Brian Kelly. He increased Notre Dame's win total by one last season, going from 9 to 10 and looks to make an even bigger leap in 2024. Bringing in former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard and former LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock will be two pivotal pieces in the Irish doing so.
7. Ole Miss (at-large)
Lane Kiffin got the Rebels to their first 11-win season last year, and now the Rebels will be looking for more in 2024. There might not be a team that will benefit more than Ole Miss from the 12-team playoff format. Sure, they could be a dark horse for the SEC title, but it's very unlikely, especially with the added competition. But Ole Miss looks to be very good in 2024, while bringing in the No. 1 ranked transfer portal class.
8. Ohio State (at-large)
With all that Ohio State is bringing to the table next season, it was difficult not to believe that the Buckeyes will be Big Ten Champions once again. But I'm not a Ryan Day believer as of yet. And next year, the conference will be growing and the competition will only get greater. Day's moves, although calculating, seem likewise desperate, knowing that his job is on the line. Still, Ohio State football won't be left out of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
9. Miami (at-large)
Is it finally time to start believing in Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes? Miami has two top-10 recruiting classes the last two years, on top of some meaningful portal additions, including this year's biggest get in former Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward. If Ward ends up being a success, the Hurricanes could make some meaningful noise for the first time in decades.
10. Penn State (at-large)
Similar to Ole Miss, the 12-team format works in the Nittany Lions' favor, as they were always on the outside looking in from the other members of the Big Ten, namely Ohio State and Michigan. James Franklin snagging former Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki was a major get, with hopes of improving the offense that has Drew Allar behind center. If the defense remains the same or better even after Manny Diaz's departure to take the head coaching job at Duke, then Penn State will be in the playoff.
11. Alabama (at-large)
Did you really think I was going to leave out Alabama? It feels odd not knowing what has been the most sure-fired team in the country is not that any longer. At least not yet. Saban was a constant, always having Alabama football in the top. That's not saying DeBoer won't get them there as well, but this is a huge transition phase that hasn't been seen in Tuscaloosa in nearly 20 years. Alabama gets in but just barely.
12. Liberty (Conference USA Champion)
In his first season as the Flames football head coach, Jamey Chadwell won the Conference USA Championship. It was also the very first season for Liberty football moving to Division I and into the conference. Chadwell may be one of the most underrated coaches in America. The fact that he was able to lure star quarterback Kaidon Salter back gives the Flames a chance to repeat as conference champions and put the team in the College Football Playoffs.
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