The Tampa Bay Rays are in the Midwest to take on the Cleveland Guardians Thursday night. Below we will continue our MLB odds series with a Rays-Guardians prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Rays-Guardians Projected Starters
Ryan Pepiot vs. Gavin Williams
Ryan Pepiot (8-6) with a 3.66 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 113 innings pitched, 118K/40BB, .213 oBA
Last Start: at Baltimore Orioles: Win, 5.1 innings, 6 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 9 starts, 3.23 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 47.1 innings pitched, 48K/14BB, .223 oBA
Gavin Williams (3-8) with a 5.25 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 60 innings pitched, 64K/26BB, .241 oBA
Last Start: at Los Angeles Dodgers: Loss, 0.2 innings, 2 hits, 5 runs, 3 walks, 0 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 5 starts, 7.54 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 22.2 innings pitched, 30K/10BB, .316 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Rays-Guardians Odds
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-178)
Moneyline: +120
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+146)
Moneyline: -142
Over: 7.5 (-118)
Under: 7.5 (-104)
How to Watch Rays vs. Guardians
Time: 7:15 PM ET/4:15 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Great Lakes
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Rays have a fantastic chance to put up some runs in this game. They are facing Gavin Williams, and he has not pitched well this season. His ERA is over 5.00, and his ERA at home is over 7.00. Williams throws the ball hard, but he allows a lot of hard hits, and he walks quite a few batters, as well. The Rays need to stay patient at the plate, and then attack his fastballs in the zone. If the Rays can do that, they will put up runs and win this game.
Ryan Pepiot is coming off a pretty good start against the Orioles, and he has pitched well this season as a whole. In fact, Pepiot is in the 76th percentile in xBA, 79th percentile in whiff percentage, and 68th percentile in strikeout percentage. He has good stuff and it has shown throughout this season. Pepiot should not have a problem shutting down the Guardians in this game.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians have to be good offensively if they want to win and take the AL Central crown. With that, they have a good chance to do well offensively. Pepiot has a decently high barrel percentage, a high barrel percentage, and his ground ball rate is low. The Guardians should be able to barrel some balls in the air in this game. We might see a few of those balls leave the yard, as well. If Cleveland can do that, they will win this game.
The Guardians have one of the best bullpens in the MLB this season. With Hunter Gaddis and Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland has the eighth and ninth innings locked down. Their bullpen ERA is 2.76 while their WHIP sits at 1.07, as well. Gavin Williams does not need to have a quality start, but he has to keep the Guardians in the game before coming out. If he can do that, Cleveland's bullpen will be able to get the win.
Final Rays-Guardians Prediction & Pick
I like Ryan Pepiot a little more than Gavin Williams in this game. The Rays have to do a lot of their scoring off Williams considering Cleveland's bullpen. I think the Rays will do enough off Williams to win this game. I will take Tampa Bay to win this game on the road.
Final Rays-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Rays ML (+120)
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