The Boston Red Sox (31-31) visit the Cleveland Guardians (28-33) for the rubber match of their three-game series. First pitch commences Thursday at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Guardians evened the series thanks to last night's 5-2 win although the Red Sox still took the opener, 5-4. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Red Sox-Guardians prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Red Sox-Guardians MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Guardians Odds
Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-162)
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+134)
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-112)
How To Watch Red Sox vs. Guardians
TV: Bally Sports
Stream: ESPN+, MLB.tv
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET/ 4:10 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Red Sox-Guardians LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 3-7 (Fifth in the AL East)
Run Line Record: 31-31 (50%)
Over Record: 35-25-2 (58%)
Boston started the season red-hot but has regressed and now finds itself in last place in the best division in baseball. The Red Sox dropped consecutive series to the Reds and Rays over the last week but put themselves in a position to win this series thanks to a 5-4 win in the opener. Although Boston boasts the fifth-highest-scoring offense in the league, they've managed just seven runs through the series' first two games. Considering they average 5.05 runs per game, they'll likely need to pick up their offensive effort if the Red Sox want to cover as road underdogs tonight.
Lefty Matt Dermody (0-0) makes his first career start for the Red Sox tonight. The 32-year-old has only pitched two innings since 2017 – both in relief. That 2017 season was his only prolonged stay in the majors. In 23 appearances with the Blue Jays, Dermody held a 2-0 record to go along with a 4.43 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 22.1 innings pitched. He signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox this offseason and has spent the season in their Triple-A rotation. There he made eight starts – compiling 47 strikeouts, a 4.50 ERA, and a 1.34 WHIP in 44 innings pitched. Dermody doesn't have much big-league experience but gets a soft matchup against Cleveland's bottom-of-the-barrel offense.
While they've been held in check thus far, the Red Sox feature an incredibly explosive offense. They rank eighth in OPS, fifth in extra-base hit rate, and eighth in BABIP while striking out at the sixth-lowest rate in the league. Rookie Masataka Yoshida has been a catalyst all season long – leading the team with a .318 batting average and ranking second with 105 total bases. He's been especially hot of late – batting .321 over the last week while collecting hits in nine of his last 11 games.
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 6-4 (Second in the AL Central)
Run Line Record: 29-32 (48%)
Over Record: 21-38-2 (36%)
Cleveland has slowly righted the ship after a slow start to the season. They picked up back-to-back series wins over the Cardinals and Orioles to close out May before splitting a road series with the first-place Twins. Although they dropped the opener against Boston, Cleveland responded with a 5-2 win in yesterday's Game 2. While the Guardians don't feature strong offensive numbers, they've picked things up on that end of late. Consequently, they'll need to continue their improvement at the plate if they want to cover as home favorites tonight.
Righty Aaron Civale (1-1) makes his fourth start of the season for the Guardians tonight. The 27-year-old hasn't quite lived up to the promise he showed during his debut 2019 season but is off to a strong start this year. He got off to a strong start with a shutout but was injured in his second outing and missed nearly two months. Civale returned last week against the Twins – throwing five shutout innings while walking two and striking out four. Despite a tough matchup against Boston's fifth-ranked offense, Civale has pitched well this season and has a strong track record at home. He finished with a 3.80 ERA in nine home starts last season compared to a 5.88 road ERA.
Cleveland's struggled mightily on offense this season despite striking out at the lowest rate in the league. That said, first baseman Josh Naylor has been heating up after he hit .293 in 23 May appearances. The 25-year-old had high expectations coming into the year but struggled over the first month. He's really picked things up of late – batting .444 while collecting 11 total bases over their last five games. Along with outfielder Will Brennan (.1145 OPS over his last six games), the Guardians' offense could pose a sneaky threat to Boston tonight.
Final Red Sox-Guardians Prediction & Pick
Cleveland has been heating up of late and they should get just enough offense to cover matched up with a 32-year-old making his first career start.
Final Red Sox-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+134)
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