James Harden's departure from the Houston Rockets during the 2020-21 season sent the franchise into an immediate rebuild, one that general manager Rafael Stone and the front office have quietly been capitalizing on every single year. Although the Rockets' 17-win, 20-win, and 22-win seasons from 2020-21 through 2022-23 may say otherwise, high draft picks have suddenly blossomed into opportunity.
While it looks like the Rockets are going to fall short of a miracle comeback into the NBA Play-In Tournament, they have put themselves in a position to once again grow into a contender with Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, and Tari Eason, all of whom are 22 years old or younger. It is also worth mentioning Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jeff Green, and head coach Ime Udoka, seeing as they are the experienced brain trust of this young team.
Houston made a big investment in Udoka and those veterans to help push the rebuild along. While the 2023-24 season has been a roller coaster and seemed totally doomed after Sengun's gruesome-looking leg and knee injury, the recent 11-game winning streak without the young star both momentarily got them back in the hunt for a play-in spot and sent a message to the NBA that they will be a force to be reckoned with in the future. Plus, Sengun's injury was not as serious as many first imagine, as he was diagnosed with a Grade 3 right ankle sprain and bone bruise in his knee.
After Sengun's injury, the Rockets turned their attention to Jalen Green, a 22-year-old who the organization consistently raves about as being one of the better two-way guards in the entire league. At moments, Green had showcased his potential in a Rockets uniform prior to this season. He concluded his rookie year by scoring at least 30 points in four of his last five games, including a 41-point performance to close out the 2021-22 season. During his second season in the league, Green averaged 22.1 points per game and again flashed his potential with four different 40-plus-point performances.
As the Rockets began the 2023-24 season, they knew what they had with Green, but he was forced into a new role under Udoka's leadership. More defensive responsibility fell on Green's shoulders, resulting in his lackluster offensive performances early on. Still, those flashes of excellence existed on offense while the former second overall pick really began to improve as a versatile perimeter defender, similar to the growth Jaylen Brown made with the Boston Celtics under Udoka.
With six games remaining on their schedule, Green has once again proven to be one of the young faces of the Rockets' future, putting the team on his back to get back in the play-in mix. During the 11-game winning streak, Green put up 30.2 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game while shooting a scorching 50.4 percent from the field and 45.0 percent from long distance.
In addition to being named the Western Conference Player of the Week in the middle of March, Green was also one of a handful of players to receive votes for Western Conference Player of the Month. The more Green has learned Udoka's system, the more confident he has looked regarding his all-around game on both sides of the floor. Minnesota Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards made a massive leap during his third season in terms of being a scorer and perimeter defender. Now, we are beginning to see a similar trend take shape with Green in Houston.
Green's heroics almost certainly won't result in a play-in berth after the Rockets got thumped by the Golden State Warriors on Thursday, creating a sizable four-game gap (plus Warriors own the tiebreaker) between the two teams for the No. 10 seed with just six games left. However, the last month of games has been very telling to Houston's front office. Stone will be faced with some major decisions entering the offseason, and all roads lead back to the futures of their young, dynamic leaders: Sengun and Green.
Rockets' outlook on Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green
Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green have each had terrific third seasons in Houston. While Sengun is the player who has received the most attention over the course of the year, Green's durability and impact on both ends of the court can't be overlooked. What the future holds for the Rockets will be decided over the summer due to Sengun and Green entering the final year of their rookie contracts. Both 2021 draft alums are the two focal points of Houston's young core, but can the team afford to keep them both?
At this juncture, the Rockets remain fixated on this young core they have spent a lot of time and resources building, league sources told ClutchPoints. Although they're set to miss the play-in tournament, the way this young group has closed out the 2023-24 season is a massive win moving forward for the franchise. Sengun proved that he can be a do-it-all type of center, and Green has done well with taking on the mantle of being “The Guy” for this organization since the big man's injury.
The internal conversations the Rockets have held over the last year have revolved around the idea of adding experienced, veteran talent in order to promptly make it back to the playoffs, territory they have not seen since 2020. This is the main reason why current Milwaukee Bucks center Brook Lopez was high on their priority list in free agency last summer, along with Fred VanVleet. When luring Lopez away from Milwaukee was no longer a possibility, the Rockets inked VanVleet to a massive contract, and they made Sengun the focal point of their frontcourt. This is a decision Houston has no regrets about.
The Rockets have developed Sengun into a more well-rounded big man who could be an all-around weapon on the offensive end of the floor. Although they traded for Steven Adams in the middle of the season to add frontcourt depth heading into next season, the Rockets remain committed to Sengun, sources said. The 21-year-old has one more year left on his rookie contract, and the team has interest in making him one of the faces of the franchise for many years to come.
How much the Rockets are willing to spend on Sengun is influenced not only by how he recovers from his current injuries but also by what the team ultimately decides to do with Green as well.
Despite rumors suggesting the team was actively looking to move on from Green around the time of the trade deadline, the Rockets were operating with a mindset of caution. The Rockets, sources said, were only willing to move Green for a player with solidified All-Star status or on the verge of becoming an All-Star, sources said. This is why Brooklyn Nets star Mikal Bridges was so heavily linked to the Rockets around the time of the trade deadline.
However, these trade conversations were held during a time when Green's inconsistencies were being highlighted. The script has changed with Green's recent hot streak, one that has again put him at the forefront of Houston's plans moving forward. In addition to having interest in keeping Sengun around on a new deal, the Rockets remain extremely confident in Green and his abilities to become an All-Star alongside Sengun and the rest of this roster.
Team financials and overall costs are obviously going to become an issue for Houston moving forward. VanVleet is going to make $42 million next season, Dillon Brooks will make another $22 million, and now there is the issue of extending both Sengun and Green. The idea of extending two players in the final year of their rookie contracts isn't ideal for a youthful franchise like the Rockets, which is why the conversation about trading one of the budding stars needs to be had.
By trading either Sengun or Green, Houston would open up options on how to build what they hope to be a playoff-contending roster while also maintaining flexibility when VanVleet's contract expires, which could come in 2025 should the team decline his $44 million option in the future. The belief from rival organizations in the Western Conference, though, is that the Rockets will only include Green or Sengun in trade talks if they can land an All-Star-caliber player who is not on an expiring deal in return.
If Stone and this front office believe that Sengun and Green present the best path moving forward to winning, they will not hold back from extending both recent first-round picks. After all, Houston can always move on from either player down the road and utilize their contract slot for other needs should the organization ever run into a problem. Then again, the league's new sanctions against teams with high payrolls that exceed the second apron tax could severely limit a team that is trying to grow into a playoff threat.
The Rockets do not have many other options right now other than keeping Sengun and Green. This is the likeliest scenario as the offseason rapidly approaches.
Rockets' roster options
Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green entering the final year of their rookie contracts means the Rockets will need to find ways to free up future funding, that is if they are to keep both players. It is certainly possible the big man and athletic guard each see $200 million or more in a new contract with the team. Should this occur, Houston is going to need to get creative with ways to cut down on their overall costs.
The good news for the Rockets is they have a few options pertaining to this idea. Literally, Houston has team options that can be leveraged to free up immediate funds.
The first contract situation the Rockets will turn to when their offseason begins is that of Jock Landale, one of their additions from last summer. After stepping up for Deandre Ayton on the Phoenix Suns last season, Landale earned himself a four-year, $32 million contract in what many called an “overpay” by the Rockets. This move was made by Houston not knowing what Sengun would turn out to be and after failing to sign Lopez in free agency.
While $32 million may be a lot to commit to a guy who only started in five games through two seasons in the league, the Rockets were able to land Landale with some special provisions. After making $8 million during the 2023-24 season, Landale's contract is non-guaranteed every single year moving forward. As a result, Houston can waive him at any time, instantly freeing up funds to use for other contracts, quite possibly extensions for some of their youthful players.
Better yet, the Rockets could utilize Landale's current deal to facilitate a trade for a bigger-name player. There are several teams around the league that are going to be looking to cut costs in the offseason, and a trade with Houston could help them achieve this goal. While Landale has played well since Sengun's injury, he is nothing more than a rotational player on the bench. When Adams enters the fold and is utilized alongside Sengun, Landale's value and $8 million contract suddenly become an elephant in the room for this franchise. It is hard to see a scenario where they keep him around for $8 million per season moving forward.
Jeff Green and Jae'Sean Tate are two other contractual situations the Rockets will need to make a decision on. Both players own team options for the 2024-25 season. Green has an option worth $8 million with $1.6 million in likely incentives, and Tate's option is worth just over $7 million with about $500,000 in unlikely incentives. Right there, that is close to $16.7 million that Houston will have to make tough decisions on.
At 37 years old and a proven champion with the Denver Nuggets, Green's value is certainly notable for a young, emerging team like the Rockets. Although Tate has been used in the past for his two-way potential, his minutes have been minimal under Udoka. He has played at least 20 minutes in only six games since the start of 2024.
In total, between the contracts of Landale, Green, and Tate, Houston has the ability to free up over $40 million in money that has been disrupted by previous contracts. When assessing their future, and possibly the trade market for another star player, the Rockets are going to need ways to both move the financials of contracts around and also have the ability to offload funds in a manner that doesn't penalize the future of the organization.
These three team options Houston holds are the key to not only possibly keeping Sengun and Green around but also going big-game hunting for another notable name to pair with VanVleet.
Free agency, trade market options
The Rockets want to win. As a result, Houston will enter the summer with all options on the table. The idea of moving either Jalen Green or Alperen Sengun in a package for an established star is certainly something Stone and the front office will consider. Then again, so is the notion of extending both of their young players and finding other ways to pursue talent around two players they believe will be All-Stars in the near future.
It is no secret to anyone around the league right now that the Rockets will be doing what they can to bring in more talent during the offseason. However, unlike last season, when they had nearly $60 million to play around with in free agency, Houston will need to be very picky in terms of how they spend money during the summer. The best way for this organization to try and upgrade their roster is via the trade market, especially since they could utilize the contracts of Jock Landale, Jeff Green, and Jae'Sean Tate in this scenario.
So, who are some of the bigger names that could make sense for a rising team like the Rockets? Obviously, Mikal Bridges is the player this organization really wanted. Houston attempted to pursue a trade for Bridges ahead of the trade deadline in February, even going so far as to include Green and multiple draft picks in these discussions. The Nets have remained adamant about wanting to build a contending roster with Bridges being one of their focal points, leading to the idea they won't trade him whatsoever despite missing the playoffs.
It is worth mentioning Ben Simmons' name when talking about trades with Brooklyn. No team in the league is going to want to trade for him, seeing as Simmons has only played in 57 games over the last three years, yet the Nets will be searching the market to see if there is a team that would want to take on the remaining $40.3 million the former All-Star will be making in the final year of his contract next season, sources said.
Simmons is a versatile defender — when he plays — who could fit in with Udoka's ideology defensively. With that said, the Rockets are expected to hold no interest in pursuing the former first overall pick.
There are a lot of unknowns pertaining to the market for star players right now. Any chance of the New York Knicks looking to shop Julius Randle has declined drastically after his season-ending shoulder surgery, and the odds of the Minnesota Timberwolves possibly moving on from Karl-Anthony Towns are low after their historic season. The Boston Celtics aren't splitting up their superstar lineup anytime soon, the Milwaukee Bucks aren't moving on from Giannis Antetokounmpo, and there aren't any indications to suggest that Joel Embiid will want to leave the Philadelphia 76ers.
In the Western Conference, Paul George and Brandon Ingram are the two star players many around the league are beginning to ask questions about. George, who can opt out of his $48.8 million player option to become an unrestricted free agent, has yet to advance in extension discussions with the Los Angeles Clippers after they gave Kawhi Leonard a three-year, $153 million deal. There have been plenty of rumors suggesting that George will evaluate all of his options by becoming a free agent. Still, sources say the overarching theme is that the nine-time All-Star will remain with the Clippers.
The New Orleans Pelicans have shown flashes of their contending potential with their star-studded core of Ingram, Zion Williamson, and CJ McCollum. The problem for them is that money is going to start becoming a major factor with Jonas Valanciunas entering free agency. Trey Murphy III, whom the organization is exceptionally high on, is also going to be entering the final year of his contract and eligible to receive a rookie-scale extension. Coming up short in the postseason yet again could result in the Pelicans' front office making some major changes to the core of their roster.
The only other proven star player in the West that the Rockets could attempt to pursue is Memphis Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. The 2023-24 season has been a mess for the Grizzlies, but it has ended up being Jackson's most productive season in the NBA because he has been the only durable player on their roster. Between his scoring and defensive abilities, the 24-year-old would be the picture-perfect addition to Houston's frontcourt.
The question here is: Why would the Grizzlies even entertain the idea of moving Jackson?
Memphis still has both Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, plus they just traded Adams to Houston a couple of months ago. As crazy as it may sound, the Grizzlies will enter the offseason as one of the most underrated teams in the entire league. When healthy, they have the capability to win 50-plus games, which is why Zach Kleiman and the Grizzlies' front office are going to be as equally aggressive as the Rockets in terms of finding ways to improve their roster.
The lack of stars that exist on the trade market right now leaves Houston with little to no room to substantially improve. That is why holding onto Sengun and Green makes the most sense for them at this time.
Of course, trades can develop at any point. Just last summer, Damian Lillard became available and was moved to the Bucks. There is always the possibility of stars growing frustrated and wanting a change in scenery. When this happens, the Houston Rockets will keep their options open while also continuing to lay the foundation for success with Sengun and Green as the faces of their franchise.
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