For many, it does not feel like it's already been nine years since the Kansas City Royals won the World Series. It has not flown by for their fans, though. A championship and back-to-back American League Pennants alleviate the annual disappointment that has accompanied the franchise since 2015, but this city is anxious to exit this long rebuilding phase.
The wait might not be over quite yet, but the public's patience is finally being rewarded. KC officially has a star in Bobby Witt Jr. following his stellar 2023 campaign and an intriguing infield that should command more national attention during the upcoming 2024 season. Even more encouraging is the fact that the organization is digging a little deeper into its piggy bank.
The Royals were never going to raid the top shelf of the free agent class, but they invested in multiple veterans who instantly make this a more credible baseball product. It is a philosophy the NBA's Houston Rockets have employed to accelerate their lengthy renovation project, one that has resulted in a double-digit increase in wins. Kansas City's front office surely has a similar plan in mind after the club lost a franchise-worst 106 games in 2023.
Is it doable? We are going to make our ruling here today. With spring training nearly done, let's break down our Royals' bold predictions for 2024.
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Bobby Witt Jr. noticeably raises his batting average, on-base percentage
There are a few lofty goals we can set for the face of the franchise this year. 30 home runs and 50-60 steals is plausible based on both his tremendous skill set and the modern baserunning rules. A top-five finish in the AL MVP race is also realistic given that he vaulted into seventh in 2023 after a brilliant second-half of the season.
Instead, we are taking a route that might be less flashy but is nevertheless critical in ensuring that Bobby Witt Jr. climbs the next rung of the MLB superstar ladder. And it centers around the fundamental component of simply getting on base.
The 23-year-old phenom has achieved mind-blowing history through his first two years in The Show and served as the main reason to watch a woefully dreadful club in 2023. He smashed 30 homers, stole 49 bags and hit an MLB-best 11 triples. There is room for improvement, however. Witt's on-base percentage, despite vastly increasing from his rookie year, settled in at a disappointing .319. That is simply unacceptable for a player of his caliber.
He is ahead of schedule and obviously has time to fix that number, but significant strides must be taken in 2024. And I believe they will be, considering that his strikeout rate is a respectable 17.4 percent. While more walks may not be the excitement people clamor for from this electrifying talent, it can directly help a lineup that is ideally less dependent on Witt to manufacture runs.
His .276 batting average from a year ago is clearly not a concern, but I expect him to approach .300 in this upcoming campaign. This offensive growth will thrust the new Kauffman King into elite territory in the first season of his new 11-year contract.
Royals will be within five games of first place going into September
I want to make it clear that “first place” refers only to the AL Central. Even so, playing meaningful baseball in the last stretch of the year is what this city has been yearning for since 2015. The fans and team deserve that opportunity, which can only be made possible by the moves management made in the offseason.
The offense is going be playing freely, with Maikel Garcia looking to build off a solid rookie year, and Vinnie Pasquantino hoping to put it all together now that he is healthy. Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier balance out the lineup with their valuable experience, while Salvador Perez eyes another 20-plus homer campaign. The Royals are more than just Bobby Witt Jr.
They will also be sharper on the mound. With the additions of Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to the starting rotation, and Will Smith and Chris Stratton to the bullpen, KC should significantly improve upon what was the third-worst ERA in 2023. Cole Ragans and Brady Singer are the X-factors of the staff, though, as they could actually lift Matt Quatraro's club over the top in a winnable division if they come of age.
But we do not live in an ideal world.
Royals not ready quite yet
While there is promise all over this roster, expecting a small-market team to undergo such a dramatic one-year turnaround is difficult to fathom. Postseason berths are not far away, but 2024 will be a bridge year. The young players will run out of gas in September after a high-octane summer and finish five-to-seven games out of first place.
When it comes down to it, I do not believe the upgrades to the bullpen are sufficient for a successful playoff push. Smith's best days are behind him and Stratton has not been a high-impact reliever for most of his career. The pen should be better, but J.J. Picollo will need to seek more reinforcements at the trade deadline if it is truly going to win games for the Royals late in the year.
I made the Houston Rockets comparison earlier and am circling back to it here. Kansas City's active winter will result in marked improvement in 2024, but it will probably not be enough to immediately push the club into national prominence. Fans have been patient this long, though. They can settle for a fun ride that stops a bit short of October.
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