Shohei Ohtani’s long-anticipated free agency is upon us, and there are rumors that Ohtani has contract offers in hand and could potentially make his decision by the end of the week. There is little doubt that Ohtani will sign the largest contract ever given out. One team stands head and shoulders above everybody else in terms of being a perfect fit for the two-way superstar. Let’s take a look at who that team is, and just how much money Ohtani’s record-breaking deal might be worth.
It has been indicated for a while that Ohtani would prefer to play for a West Coast team, where he could be closer to his home in Japan. Reports also suggest that Ohtani strongly values playing for a contender after years of missing the playoffs with the Angels.
The Los Angeles Dodgers fit that bill for Shohei Ohtani, they are ready to contend for a championship and they have the financial resources to pay Ohtani what his services are worth.
Ohtani would lengthen the Dodgers lineup
There is an opening at DH for the Dodgers, as JD Martinez is a free agent. Martinez typically played DH and batted third for Los Angeles, and Ohtani would fit perfectly into those roles. Alternatively, if they wanted to re-sign Martinez they could bat him and Ohtani third and fourth (in either order) and slide Max Muncy down in the batting order.
Taking this approach would lengthen their lineup, as Muncy and his 30+ home run and .800+ OPS ceiling would be one of the better hitters a pitcher would face in the lower third of any team’s card.
Moving Muncy to 7th, for example, would allow Will Smith and Jason Heyward to hit in front of him, two players with the potential to get on base at a 35% clip. This would give Muncy many opportunities to hit with runners on and put immense stress on opposing pitching staffs.
The Dodgers need an ace
The Dodgers rotation is in shambles, and as of right now they do not have a bona fide ace to anchor their 2024 rotation. Any serious World Series contender must have an ace to lead their rotation. Clayton Kershaw’s career may be over, and Walker Buehler is returning from his second Tommy John surgery.
While he will be unable to pitch for most, if not all of the 2024 campaign, Ohtani has made it clear that he intends to pitch again once he is healthy. Shohei Ohtani would likely become the ace of the Dodgers rotation from 2025 going forward.
Having both Ohtani and Buehler on the roster will allow them to serve as insurance policies for each other and give the Dodgers more flexibility going forward. In an ideal world, Ohtani and Buehler form a dynamic one-two punch that can shut down opposing offenses in the playoffs.
A seamless transition
As far as joining a new team, the transition from the Angels to the Dodgers would be arguably the easiest for Ohtani to make. Ohtani appears to be a creature of habit, and it is likely he finds the idea of staying in the same city appealing.
What a potential contract offer could look like
We can be almost certain that Ohtani will sign the most expensive contract in the history of North American sports. With star players signing deals that span a decade or longer and rumors that Ohtani already has multiple $500 million offers on the table, let’s take a look at two offers the Dodgers could make to get a deal done.
Contract offer #1: $611 million total value: 13 years, $47 million per year
Ohtani is already going to be the first player to receive a contract worth north of $500 million. But could he sign for $600 million or more? It would be unprecedented, even more so than a $500 million deal, but Ohtani has been doing unprecedented things ever since he came stateside in 2018.
It is certainly a realistic possibility for Ohtani to receive a contract worth $600 million. As he is likely the only player who could command a contract approaching this figure, Ohtani is going to want to break the $600 million mark, and the Dodgers should give it to him. This deal keeps the AAV below $50 million, which will continue to look more and more affordable as the years go by and the luxury tax thresholds increase.
Contract offer #2: $612 million total value: 12 years, $51 million per year
This alternative offer gives Ohtani an extra $1 million overall and shaves one year off of the contract. The downside for Los Angeles, however, is that it comes with a higher AAV.
The bottom line:
A difference of $1 million is negligible to Ohtani given that the contract will be worth more than half a billion dollars. The lower AAV will allow the Dodgers to put a more competitive team around him by reducing the luxury tax burden, and Ohtani has expressed a desire to play for a contender.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the ideal fit for Shohei Ohtani, and a 13-year contract with an AAV of $47 million is the perfect deal for both Ohtani and the Dodgers.
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