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PSG won the first leg of the Champions League round of 16 matchup versus Real Madrid. They won 1-0, but the feeling remained that they could have scored more. Lionel Messi missed a penalty after a poor Dani Carvajal tackle in the box and Kylian Mbappe had many chances to score at least one more. After the game, PSG lost two games in Ligue 1 and could be reeling into the second leg, in front of the famous Santiago Bernabeu. Still, they have a great chance to pass through. To do that, they will need their X-factor, and it is not Kylian Mbappe.
PSG X-factor – Lionel Messi
When Lionel Messi left Barcelona to join PSG, many were fearing their front trio. Messi was joining Neymar Jr and Mbappe to form the best front three, on paper, in world football. It had some thinking about the famous Barcelona MSN trio, or Messi, Neymar, and Luis Suarez. That trio scored 253 goals in 113 appearances for Barcelona that season and dominated Spanish and European football. Yet, this front trio is not nearly as dominant as everyone suggested they will be. Neymar and Messi missed a ton of time due to injuries and even when they played, Messi has been underwhelming, to say the least. That will have to change for the second leg versus the 13-time Champions League winners in Madrid.
Messi is still one of the best players in the world but has not had the best season for PSG. Overall, he scored just seven goals in all competitions, most of them coming in the Champions League. PSG has been underwhelming at times, not nearly as prolific as many expected. However, due to the incredible 24 goals in 34 games by their best player, Kylian Mbappe, they were able to easily lead the French Ligue 1 and get the second spot in a tough Champions League group with Manchester City, RB Leipzig, and Club Brugge. As they are nearing the 9th of March game versus Real Madrid, they need their Argentinian wizard to wake up.
Unfortunately for PSG, Messi has struggled mightily in his last few years playing versus Real Madrid. His last goal versus the Spanish giants, interestingly enough, came in the last El Clasico that Cristiano Ronaldo play for the Los Blancos, on May 6th, 2018. Since then, according to Transfermarkt, he played seven games for Barcelona and one for PSG, scoring zero goals. However, to say that Messi can only influence the game through goals or generally goal contributions would be blasphemy, since he can do so much more. PSG will rely on him to provide the creative edge that will set up Kylian Mbappe, as their primary goalscorer.
To break that down, it is important to understand how PSG sets up. In the first game, and it will likely be the case in the second game, PSG sets up their midfield with two defensive-minded players and a box-to-box midfielder. Those are Danilo Pereira and Leandro Paredes, joined by Marco Veratti whose job is to carry the ball and be the link between the defense and the attacking third. According to Fotmob, he had 94 passes out of 102 attempts, mostly coming in the middle. When Presnel Kimpembe and Marquinhos get the ball from Gigi Donnarumma, they pass it to Veratti who gets it across the field. However, he does not provide much in the creative section, so he passes it forward to Messi and Neymar, who distribute it forward.
In that vein, it is Messi's job to provide key passes in the final third. He had a poor game in that regard versus Real Madrid, as they employed single coverage on him using Casemiro. Casemiro has done his job regularly versus Lionel Messi, stopping him on most occasions when he was playing for Barcelona. However, the PSG star will have an easier job in the return leg, as Casemiro is suspended and will likely be replaced by Federico Valverde, who is more energized but cannot cover one man as well as the Brazilian. Thus, there are absolutely no excuses for Messi to have another poor game for the Parisian club, as he did in Paris a couple of weeks back.
While common reason will say that PSG will win this game if Kylian Mbappe can finish on his chances, this will be a different game. Mbappe is a superstar, but he is very dependent on how the opposing team sets up and where does he get opportunities. If he gets the ball in the middle of the park, the only way he can get a chance is if the defense is set up in a high line, giving him room to run, but running into space is meaningless if there is no player to provide him the ball. That is exactly where Messi comes in and that is why, even though Kylian Mbappe is there, Messi is the key X-factor for PSG. He needs to be active in the middle, giving and taking passes from the midfield and he has to be ready to distribute it up front for Neymar and Mbappe's runs.
