Tennessee has been on the cusp of March Madness success for many years now. The Volunteers have earned a five-seed or better in each of the last five NCAA Tournaments and are on course to do so once again in 2024. Yet Rick Barnes' team has been unable to advance past the Sweet 16 and four of those defeats have come as at least a five-seed favorite. This run of being upset fodder has frustrated UT fans as the program has been unable to convert regular season success into a Final Four bid.

This season, the Volunteers are a top-five team in the AP Poll and on pace to earn a number-two seed in the NCAA Tournament. Led by explosive scorer Dalton Knecht, Tennessee boasts a much-improved offense while still maintaining one of the nation's elite defenses. While this could be the year the program finally makes a Final Four run, one fatal flaw will be holding back the Volunteers in March.

Over-reliance on Dalton Knecht

Not only has Northern Colorado transfer Dalton Knecht been one of the best players in the SEC this season, but he has also proven himself to be one of the country's elite scorers. Knecht's 20.1 PPG is seventh among power conference players and has upped that average to 24.4 PPG in SEC play. That conference scoring number is the third-best in all of college basketball. In a five-game stretch in January, Knecht had four games with at least 30 points.

Unfortunately for Tennessee, three of their losses this season have come in games where Knecht scored at least 28 points. Against South Carolina on January 30, Knecht went off for 31 of the Vols' 59 points but no other player had more than 10 points. UT fell 63-59 at home. When Tennesse visited Mississippi State on January 10, Knecht and point guard Zakai Zeigler combined for 54 of Tennessee's 72 points and were the only Vols in double figures. Just four UT players scored multiple buckets in that contest.

A similar pattern has held true in games against top non-conference opponents where Knecht. The senior transfer only managed 13 points against Kansas in a 69-60 loss and had 16 points in a 71-67 defeat to Purdue. While Knecht has boosted Tennessee's adjusted offensive efficiency by seven points per 100 possessions over last season, it has come at the price of reduced production from much of the team's supporting cast.

Santiago Vescovi — who averaged 12.5 PPG and 3.1 APG last season — is down to 7.3 PPG and 2.6 APG as he battles a much lower usage rate. Both marks have also decreased in SEC play. Vescovi is also shooting just 35.8% from deep, the worst of his five-year collegiate career. During Knecht's red-hot January stretch, starting wing (Josiah-Jordan James) — averaging nearly 10 PPG on the year — had just 10 points in those five games.

Knecht also carries the team when it comes to outside shooting. The senior transfer is shooting 40.3% from deep on the year and is the only Volunteer hitting more than 36% of his shots from deep. Without Knecht, Tennessee is shooting just 32.7% from beyond the arc.

Last season's Tennesse team relied on balanced scoring, with six players averaging at least eight points per game. Zakai Zeigler's late-season injury disrupted the Volunteers' offensive flow and the Vols bowed out of the NCAA Tournament with a Sweet Sixteen loss to Florida Atlantic in which they scored just 55 points.

Dalton Knecht has raised Tennessee's offensive ceiling in 2023-24, but questions around the Volunteers' supporting cast could lead to an earlier exit than expected in the NCAA Tournament.