When asked which teams have the greatest chance of dethroning the Warriors, the typical responses are the Spurs, Rockets, and the Cavaliers. While these teams all made some great offseason moves in response to the 16-1 postseason steamroll by the Warriors, one team that's made no substantial moves looks to be among the greatest threats to the Golden State dynasty. The lengthy and athletic Bucks have shown that they can match up with the Warriors as well as any contender.
Lets start by breaking down the matchups between the Bucks and the Warriors over the past two seasons. They've played four times during that period, with the Warriors winning three of the four games by an average margin of 12.3 points. The biggest loss was a 25-point blow out on March 18, 2017, but the Bucks lost Jabari Parker and the Warriors lost Kevin Durant to injuries. We’ll scrap this game and take a look at the other three.
On December 12, 2015 the Warriors took their 24-0 record into Milwaukee, where Bucks fans everywhere were sporting 24-1 t-shirts. The Warriors thought they would be cruising to 25-0 over a struggling 9-15 Bucks squad. The Bucks were unfazed by the Warriors historic run, and went on to win 108-95. Now don’t start going crazy about how the Warriors didn’t have Durant, or how the Bucks were a shell of the team they are today. I get it, but Golden State shot 41.6% from three in the season before Durant. They then went onto shoot 38.3% with him. The Warriors shot 22.2% (6-27) from three in this game. The point is that the length of the Bucks disturbs the shooting rhythm of the Warriors.
So, excluding the Parker and Durant game, the Bucks have lost two of three games against the Warriors in the past two years. In a Warrior dominated league where over the last two seasons the Warriors victory’s have come by an average of 15.2 points, the Bucks average loss is only by 7.5 (3 and 9) points during the same time frame. That’s nearly eight points better than the rest of the league. Let’s go ahead and take a closer look at the two Bucks losses.
The first loss was a highly anticipated matchup, as the Warriors were vocal about their intentions on getting revenge on Milwaukee after they halted their undefeated start to the season. Despite the Warriors wanting to blow the Bucks out of Oracle, the Bucks were up 93-85 after three quarters in the December 18, 2016 matchup. Things looked good until the fourth quarter came around and the Warriors outscored them 36-19 behind roars from the crowd as Draymond Green hit a Warrior patented game changing deep three in transition.
The Bucks lost, but this wasn’t just a normal loss. They came into Oracle Arena against a Warriors team that was not only publicly seeking revenge but lost two home games the entire season. They forced the Warriors to come up with one of their miraculous fourth quarters in order to get the win. What went down as a loss against their record could easily go down as a win in the confidence column for Milwaukee.
The Bucks have been no strangers to blowing leads, as they were 29th and 26th in fourth quarter scoring the past two seasons. That’s just another prime example of a young team with a new coach that doesn't know how to close out games. Jason Kidd along with the Bucks nucleus are now in their fourth year together. Closing out games comes with experience and cohesion, and that’s exactly what the Bucks have been working towards. On top of that, their leader in Antetokounmpo seems to be reaching a new level of maturity.
When asked about the area he has improved most since his rookie season, he told ESPN:
“I think my mentality. The way I approach the game. The way I approach just a simple practice. That's my mentality. I take this more serious. I'm not taking this for granted no more. I think my rookie (year) I was just having fun. I was 18 and I was living the American dream. Now, I think it's like, it's time to like work hard and achieve goals and do whatever it takes for your team to win. So I think my mentality has changed since my rookie year.”
The November 19, 2016 loss was by a mere three points without Khris Middleton, as Parkerand Antetokounmpo dropped 28 and 30.
Something important to look at between these two losses is the Warriors struggle to hit threes against the Bucks. In the first loss, the Warriors shot 22.2% (4-18) from three. In the second loss, the Warriors shot 36.8% (14-38) from three. In the three games against the Bucks that Jabari Parker played, the Warriors shot 29% from three in comparison to their 40% average over the last two seasons.
We looked at some of their past games, and you can see how the Bucks always give the Warriors a good run. Upon looking at the rosters and player matchups it becomes even more intriguing. Defensively, the Bucks matchup with the Warriors better than anyone. We’ll scrap the Warriors starting lineup and use their death lineup because thats what they’ll go with down the stretch.
PG Steph Curry – Malcolm Brogdon/Mathew Dellavadova
The cool thing about this matchup is that the Bucks have Delly off the bench, who we know isn’t the greatest defender but can prove as a great pest against someone such as Steph (See: 2016 NBA Finals). As far as Brogdon goes, he’s 6’ 5” which is huge when contesting shots against the shorter Steph. He finished at the top end of defensive win shares among Rookie guards and is only going to continue to get better at defense. If theres one thing you can count on from a Tony Bennett coached player, it’s that they know how to play defense.
SG Klay Thompson – Khris Middleton/Malcolm Brogdon
Middleton finished last season in the top 50 in win shares among all positions and is a very underrated defender. At 6’ 8” he can do as good a job as almost anyone at getting his hands up and contesting shots, but he’s athletic enough to move his feet when playing against someone like Klay.
F Kevin Durant – Giannis Antetokounmpo
It’s very rare that Durant encounters someone that can keep up with his length, but there’s probably two players in the NBA I can think of that can do it. One of them is Kawhi Leonard, the other is The Greek Freak. No one can stop Durant, but Giannis can do as good a job as almost anyone in hanging with him and minimizing Durant’s ability to dominate on pure length.
F Draymond Green – Jabari Parker
This won’t be too difficult of a matchup for Parker. His length should keep the passing lanes contested, and his athletic ability is good enough that he won’t have trouble keeping up with Green up and down the floor. Green is used to being bigger and/or faster than most of the guys guarding him, but in this instance Parker will be able to stay with him.
F Andre Iguodala – Tony Snell/Khris Middleton/Thon Maker
This matchup is the key because at this point most other teams are perplexed at how to guard a third wing capable player, but the Bucks aren’t going to be sweating. Tony Snell is 6’ 7” with a 7’ wingspan. This guy is long. Is he as good or even near Iguodala? No. Snell serves as a competent response to the warriors third forward. It also could be interesting to see how Thon Maker progresses this season. We know he can play defense and move, but can he give 25-30 minutes a night? In a game against the Warriors I can’t see Greg Monroe fitting on the floor against most of the Warriors lineups. If Maker can take even a mini-step this year and give the bucks 5-10 more minutes on the floor every game, that could be huge.
The Bucks have played the Warriors well in the past and with the way Antetokounmpo has started this season, it looks like they could be taking that next step. Are they better in direct comparison to the Cavaliers, Spurs, and Rockets? No, but that’s also not to say that they couldn’t beat the Cavaliers in a seven-game series. If the Bucks are able to grind their way out of the eastern conference we could have a team that is perfectly constructed to disrupt the Warriors chances at going down as the greatest of all time.
Follow Us
Subscribe
