The predicted NBA win-totals for every team came out earlier this month.
The Bucks, Sixers, and Clippers lead the league in predicted win-totals from Westgate. Vegas is picking the Hornets to end up with the fewest wins on the season at a paltry twenty-three.
Here are a few of my favorite bets for the 2019-2020 NBA win-totals.
All win totals are as of August 6, 2019.
3. Milwaukee Bucks (58.5) – UNDER
Milwaukee was a dark horse pick for the Finals last year but no one expected them to be quite as good as they were.
Led by MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks stampeded to a 60-win season. They ultimately fell short of their ultimate goal, losing to the eventual champion Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals. Mike Budenholzer unlocked Giannis’s otherworldly talents in a way that we had all been dying to see.
It’s easy to see the Bucks replicating their success from last year. This team will go as far as their MVP leader takes them. As Giannis told ESPN, he’s far from a finished product.
“But I think I can get better. I think I am at 60 percent of my potential, as good as I can be. I just want to be better.”
If last season’s dominant performance was Giannis at 60 percent of his abilities, I’m both terrified and excited to see him in his final form. But as good as Giannis is, he can’t carry this team by himself.
The Bucks locked in Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton to long-term contracts over the course of last season and this summer. They also brought back Brook Lopez and signed his brother Robin in the offseason. However, all of these acquisitions did come at a cost. Unable to re-sign him, Milwaukee traded Malcolm Brogdon to the Pacers for a future first-round pick and two second-round picks.
My pick for the Bucks to finish below their 58.5 win total mark is based heavily upon the impact of losing Brogdon. He was their second-best player in key moments, hit catch-and-shoot threes at a near league-best rate, and was one of their best defenders. He was just the eighth player in NBA history to finish with a 50-40-90 season.
Losing Brogdon is going to cost the Bucks at least two wins this season, bet on it.
2. Atlanta Hawks (33.5) – OVER
When the Atlanta Hawks passed on Luka Doncic for Trae Young many thought they were making a massive mistake. In the early parts of the season, it looked like the Hawks had.
Young struggled to acclimate to the NBA at first. But when he finally hit his stride it was easy to see why the Hawks were so high on the former Oklahoma Sooner.
Young got hot and went on a tear, winning Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month from January to March. At one point during his dominant run, the sharp-shooting rookie was averaging an absurd 31.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 9 assists.
The Hawks are a team with a plan and they’re sticking to it. They’ve found their floor general, have a near All-Star big man in John Collins and have a trio of very skilled complimentary wing players.
Atlanta moved up in the 2019 draft to select Virginia forward De’Andre Hunter. Then they lucked out when Cam Reddish, a pre-season top three projected pick, fell to them at pick number 10. They can pair their two new wings with last year’s selection, Kevin Huerter, to give Young the supporting cast he needs to take this team to the next level.
Young showed out last year and he’s only going to get better. He’s already put on quite a bit of muscle and is reportedly going to be working out with Kobe Bryant later this summer, according to The Athletic’s Chris Kirchner. As important as Young is, it’s the rest of the Hawks young core that is going to be the difference-maker.
There is hardly a team in the league with a more talented group of young wing players. Hunter is a long-limbed defender who shot close to 42 percent from deep in his time at Virginia. Huerter is gunner, his 38.5 percent mark from behind the arc should only improve in his sophomore season. Reddish disappointed while at Duke but he was one of the most highly touted recruits in his class for a reason.
With a still learning Young the Atlanta Hawks managed to win 29 games last year. They’ve gotten strikingly better this summer. I think the Hawks easily exceed their predicted win total of 33.5.
I actually see Atlanta putting together a strong season and making the playoffs.
1. San Antonio Spurs (46.5) – OVER
I get it, a lot of teams in the Western Conference got markedly better over the summer. Meanwhile, the Spurs quietly did Spurs things like re-signing Rudy Gay and bringing in DeMarre Carroll. This pick isn’t so much about who the Spurs brought in as it is about who they’re getting back.
Before he tore his ACL in pre-season, the Spurs were over the moon about the promise that Dejounte Murray was showing. This is a player who was NBA All-Defensive Second Team in just his second season after coming out of Washington as a freshman. He’s spent the past year quietly sitting on the bench and learning from the Spurs coaching staff so I can forgive Vegas for underestimating the impact that he’s going to have.
You can only glean so much from the Instagram videos of players working out. That being said, Murray's jumper looks much improved. That was an area of emphasis heading into last season and it looks like the work is paying off.
While Murray’s injury was tragic for San Antonio at the time, it also opened up minutes for younger players. Enter Derrick White and Bryn Forbes. White took over the starting role in December and never looked back. Forbes split time between both guard spots and was an offensive sparkplug for a Spurs team that desperately needed his outside shooting touch.
Throughout the season White showed an ability to defend multiple positions, play very efficiently within the Spurs system, and rebound well for his position. He probably should’ve been named to the All-Defensive Second Team. White will also be spending part of his summer learning from Gregg Popovich as part of the USA Select Team in Las Vegas.
Together, White and Murray will form one of the strongest defensive backcourts in the league. If there is a guard pairing in the West that can hope to contain the duo of Russell Westbrook and James Harden, it’s these two.
Remember, San Antonio still has LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan. Aldridge was an All-Star last season and has a game that’s aging like a fine red wine in Pop’s cellar. Meanwhile, DeRozan quietly had one of his most efficient seasons ever while simultaneously taking his rebounding and playmaking to new heights.
Let me remind you, the last time San Antonio won less than 47 games was 1999. Do you really want to bet that Popovich is going to get his star point guard back and win fewer games than any season so far this century? I certainly wouldn’t. This is the easiest over of them all.
Hammer it and thank me later while counting your winnings.
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