It seemed unlikely that the Dallas Mavericks were going to sweep the Los Angeles Clippers in the opening round of the 2021 Western Conference playoffs. The Mavs were not on the doorstep of achieving that feat.
Grabbing a 2-0 lead at the Staples Center on the shoulders of star point-forward Luka Doncic was more a revelation of his growing basketball acumen and the strong cast around him and Mavs coach Rick Carlisle, and less about Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and company “fumbling the bag.”
But the Clippers have regrouped to tie the series, and though he won't admit it, Doncic is hurt — a considerable neck strain midway through Game 3 limiting both his Game 3 and Game 4 performances. He shrugged things off for 44 points on 15-for-28 shooting in the 118-108 loss for the Mavs, but followed that up with a series-low 19 points, six assists and six rebounds on 9-for-24 shooting from the floor and 1-for-7 from the arc.
“He's in pain,” Mavs coach Rick Carlisle said [after Game 4]. “It appeared to me that he couldn't turn left, couldn't look to his left. He couldn't turn his neck to his left, and that's difficult for a guy that relies on peripheral vision and basically has played his whole life with his head on a swivel.
“We've got to hope in the next couple of days that he can get better, hopefully substantially better. There is a two-day break between games, which is a positive in this case.”
Doncic's injury isn't the only reason this series has been equalized, and it's clear some other adjustments need to be made by the Mavs.
Mavs Adjustment No. 1:
Get Kristaps Porzingis (everyone) on the defensive glass
For the most part, Kristaps Porzingis has had a pretty solid series. Through four games, he's shooting 46.8% from the floor (22-for-47), 33.3% from the arc (5-for-15) and 80% from the stripe (12-for-15), while averaging 15.3 ppg. He's committed two total turnovers, and is also chipping in 1.0 block and 1.0 steal per game.
The only problem is that the 7-foot-3, 240-pound center who averaged nearly nine rebounds per game in the regular season is putting up half as many against the Clippers (4.3 rpg), and the Mavs have been outrebounded considerably in the last three games. And particularly on the defensive glass, too, in Game 3 (32-20) and Game 4 (44-31).
This year, Porzingis has averaged 10.0 rpg in Dallas, and 7.7 rpg on the road. Anything close to those numbers for what's now a best-of-three series to advance would give the Mavs a clear edge over Los Angeles.
Credit needs to be given to the Clippers for boxing out, taking control of the boards, and cleaning the glass effectively as the playoffs wear on, but this? This shouldn't be happening for the Mavs:
Facundo Campazzo (who is 5’11") is averaging 1 more rebound per game than Kristaps Porzingis (who is 7’3") in this playoffs. pic.twitter.com/pRouzV9wRe
— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 29, 2021
Mavs Adjustment No. 2:
Attack Nic Batum off the bounce
In Game 1 and 2, Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavs were able to pick apart the Los Angeles Clippers, off-setting what's been really strong showings from Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard has played the second-most minutes in the postseason so far (159), and is averaging 33.0 ppg on 62.7% shooting from the floor, while George is fourth in playoff minutes (157) while shooting 50% from the floor and 95% from the stripe.
But a more unique concern for the Mavs is coach Ty Lue's lineup change, in which he flipped center Ivica Zubac for 6-foot-8 shooting guard Nic Batum for big-time minutes. The 12-year veteran Frenchman has gone a combined plus-34 in these last two matchups, while averaging nearly 10/5 on 52% shooting from the floor and 36% from the arc.
From Yahoo! Sports writer Vincent Goodwill on the Mavs and Clippers:
“Defense has looked optional in a few first-round series but the Clippers holding the Mavs to 94.5 points in the last two games needs to be noted,” Goodwill writes. “Lue finally found the adjustment to unlock the Clippers’ defense, starting Nic Batum in place of Ivica Zubac. It made mismatches harder for Doncic to hunt, and although it’s not quite traditional small-ball, the Clippers could switch on defense without losing much or allowing Dallas to attack the basket.”
Batum is a savvy, senior defender who's averaging just 1.0 personal foul in this series. And unlike most teams in the 2021 NBA playoffs, he and the Clippers are nearly 100% healthy, meaning they can sell out physically on most possessions. In the final 10 games of the regular season, Batum played more than 25 minutes just twice, but has done so in three playoff appearances already against the Mavs — with no signs of slowing.
He's fresh, fierce and formidable, and he must be attacked by the Mavs going to the rim more frequently and putting pressure on the rotation. The Clippers do have a host of guards to throw in behind him for different reasons and matchups (Rajon Rondo, Yogi Ferrell, Terance Mann and Pat Beverley), but Batum has been Lue's counter — helping lead to a two-game swing in LA's favor.
In 113 playoff minutes, he's plus-47 on the floor, which is 14th amongst all NBA players in the postseason.
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