Saturday night in the octagon will showcase two very elite heavyweights. Derrick Lewis takes on rising Chris Daukaus headlining a thrilling main card. It's time to continue our UFC odds series with a Lewis-Daukaus prediction and pick.
Derrick Lewis is the No.3 ranked heavyweight in the UFC. He's beaten some big-time fighters like Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov. He is an elite knockout artist who is tied with Vitor Belfort with 12 UFC knockouts, the most in UFC history. After beating Blaydes (No. 4 heavyweight), Lewis lost to undefeated Ciryl Gane via TKO back in August. Gane is the No.1 contender and is set to fight the champion Francis Ngannou for the belt for UFC 270 on January 22. Lewis is coming off of a loss which puts him as the underdog against Daukaus.
Chris Daukaus is a rising contender in the heavyweight class. He is on a four-fight win streak and beat some veteran names like Shamil Abdurakhimov and Aleksei Oleinik. Daukaus is the No. 7 ranked heavyweight and is the favorite against Lewis. With a win against a top-3 contender, that could move Daukaus into the top-5 and would he be a few wins shy of a potential title shot.
Here is how FanDuel set the Lewis-Daukaus odds for UFC Saturday Night.
UFC Odds: Lewis-Daukaus UFC Odds
Derrick Lewis: +120
Chris Daukaus: -142
Over: 1.5 (-134)
Under: 1.5 (+106)
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Why Lewis Could Win The Fight
Lewis should have around 20-30 pounds on Daukaus and we will officially know Friday morning at the weigh-ins. That could benefit or hurt Lewis against Daukaus. Lewis clearly has KO potential against anyone and he really tries to throw that KO punch. Daukaus is fighting very well lately and will have more stamina during the fight. What Lewis has over Daukaus is experience against top-ranked fighters and experience in 5-round fights. We will see if that benefits Lewis as the underdog for this fight. It's going to be tough to KO Daukaus but it is possible. Lewis' 3-inch reach over Daukaus is a small advantage but he will need to use that to his advantage if he wants to win.
Why Daukaus Could Win The Fight
This is really the first time that Daukaus gets to fight a top-ranked heavyweight. It's not going to be easy as Lewis has shown to compete against the best. What Daukaus needs to focus on is his significant strikes because he lands them at a high rate. He doesn't really try and take any fighters down and prefers to fight stand-up. He will need to be careful of Lewis' KO ability unless that is his game plan himself. Daukaus is making a name for himself lately and has a great chance to keep making his way to the top with a win Saturday night. Lewis's losses are all to top-ranked opponents so Daukaus will need to show something a little different if he wants to KO Lewis.
Final Lewis-Daukaus Prediction & Pick
It's not easy for heavyweights to go a full five rounds during a fight. That is why the over/under is pretty low. I would consider taking the over at 1.5 regardless, however. Both of these fighters will be looking for the early KO but I don't think they will go down that easy. As for who wins, I'm taking Lewis to “upset” Daukaus and win by a TKO. I don't think this fight will go the distance and Lewis will get the job done toward the middle of the fight. His post-fight interviews are always one to enjoy as well.
Final Lewis-Daukaus Prediction & Pick: Lewis +120 & Over: 1.5 (-134)