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We're back with another prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 75 as the Main Card of action rolls on from the UFC Apex. The next fight takes place in the Featherweight (145 lb) Division as Philly's own Pat Sabatini takes on Brazil's Lucas Almeida. These two are evenly-matched and both hungry for a win! Check out our UFC odds series for our Sabatini-Almeida prediction and pick.
Pat Sabatini is 17-4 as a professional fighter and has gone an impressive 4-1 in the UFC since 2021. He rang off four consecutive wins to start his UFC career and did so with three unanimous decisions and a heel hook finish. He ran into a brick wall his last fight when he faced the best version of Damon Jackson we've ever seen. He'll be in a big spot to bounce back and continue his path towards the rankings with a win over Almeida. Sabatini stands 5'8″ with a 70-inch reach.
Lucas Almeida is 14-1 as a mixed martial artist and has won his only fight in the UFC. Almeida was featured on DWCS in 2021 where he lost to Daniel Zellhuber. He won a fight in Jungle Fight and got a late-notice shot to face Mike Trizano for his UFC debut. Almeida impressed with a TKO win and stamped his ticket to the show. Since October 2022, however, he's had three cancelled fights and will be eager to finally step into the octagon for some action. Almeida stands 5'11” with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Vegas 75 Odds: Pat Sabatini-Lucas Almeida Odds
Pat Sabatini: -215
Lucas Almeida: +164
Over (2.5) rounds: +102
Under (2.5) rounds: -130
How to Watch Pat Sabatini vs. Lucas Almeida
TV: ESPN, ESPN+
Stream: ESPN App, UFC Fight Pass, fuboTV
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
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Why Pat Sabatini Will Win
Pat Sabatini is a very well-rounded fighter and gets the job done by controlling his opponents on the ground and negating their striking with his movement. He has a low stance and is constantly threatening the takedown. While he's not the most polished striker, he's very effective when he can stick his jab and has decent power behind his shots. Sabatini won't be the faster striker of the two, but he will certainly look to be more accurate as he finds angles to attack. Sabatini should look to grapple with Almeida and make him uncomfortable against the fence. If he can work his takedowns, he should be able to dominate the control time on the scorecards.
Sabatini should look to be defensive when Almeida explodes with his attacks. He'll almost certainly have to weather a storm of strikes early, so look for Sabatini to engage in some clinch work against the fence. He'll be the stronger of the two fighters and will have an edge in the wrestling. While it may not be the most exciting plan of action, Sabatini is most effective when he can control his opponent and work the ground-and-pound at his own pace. Look for him to relentlessly wrestle if he's able to win the first two rounds.
Why Lucas Almeida Will Win
Lucas Almeida made a big statement in his second chance with the UFC and will have to chance to make an even bigger impression against a 4-1 fighter in Sabatini. Almeida is a dangerous grappler and striker, finishing nine wins by KO/TKO and five by submission. While his level of competition is far behind Sabatini's, Almeida has shown that he has a dog in him and won't back down from a challenge. He can struggle at times with experienced wrestlers and will have to do a ton of work to stuff the takedowns of Sabatini in this one. Look for Almeida to avoid the grappling and try to keep this fight where he's most comfortable.
Almeida has to come into this fight knowing Pat Sabatini will try and wrestle him. Almeida is clearly the better striker of the two, landing five more significant strikes per minute than Sabatini. If he can keep this one standing, he'll have the advantage if he's able to pepper Sabatini to the body with his strikes. If he gets taken down, however, Almeida will have to do everything in his power to get back up from under Sabatini. Look for Almeida to be very aggressive in stuffing the first few takedowns of this fight.
Final Pat Sabatini-Lucas Almeida Prediction & Pick
Lucas Almeida will have the stern advantage in striking and could win an upset if Sabatini stands and boxes with him. Sabatini, however, is usually the less-experienced striker in all of his fights and negates it every time with his strong wrestling and control on the ground. While fans may be hoping for an exciting fight, this one could have Sabatini dominance written all over it. For the prediction, let's go with Sabatini to get the win as he works his wrestling and holds Almeida down for most of the fight.
Final Pat Sabatini-Lucas Almeida Prediction & Pick: Pat Sabatini (-215); Win by Decision (+200)
