We're back with another betting prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 108 as we take a look at our Co-Main Event in the Lightweight (155) Division on Saturday. Both fighters look to mount winning streaks as Poland's Mateusz Rebecki takes on Scotland's Chris Duncan in a certified banger. Check the UFC odds for our Rebecki-Duncan prediction and pick.
Mateusz Rebecki (20-2) is 4-1 since joining the UFC roster in 2023. Posting three consecutive wins after earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series, Rebecki most recently took down Myktybek Orolbai via split decision in a “Fight of the Night” effort. He'll look to break through into the rankings as the betting favorite here. Rebecki stands 5-foot-7 with a 66-inch reach.
Chris Duncan (13-2) has also gone 4-1 since joining the UFC in 2023. He was 3-0 during his time with Bellator and has a knack for finishing fights in the UFC, heading into this bout with back-to-back guillotine choke finishes and a ton of momentum. He'll look to continue streaking as the short underdog. Duncan stands 5-foot-10 with a 71.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 108 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 108 odds: Mateusz Rebecki-Chris Duncan odds
Mateusz Rebecki: -205
Chris Duncan: +170
Over 1.5 rounds: -166
Under 1.5 rounds: +130
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Why Mateusz Rebecki will win
- Last Fight: (W) Myktybek Orolbai – S DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Mateusz Rebecki earned his last win off sheer willpower in a complete slugfest against his last opponent in Orolbai. Both men were badly battered and bleeding by the end of the fight, but Rebecki cleared a split decision that could have gone either way.
Since his arrival to the UFC, Rebecki has been extremely tough to finish and is always guaranteed to bring the action against strong competition.
Rebecki isn't likely to engage in another war given his last fight, but he's certainly at his best when he's taking calculated risks and throwing everything behind his shots. He's also a very consistent wrestler, landing three takedowns in his last bout and converting on 75% of his takedown attempts, a truly impressive number given his level of competition.
Still, Rebecki will have to be careful when shooting against Chris Duncan given his opponents' consecutive wins by guillotine. Rebecki has been known to get caught in some very compromising spots on the ground, but his jiu jitsu acumen has kept him safe up to this point. He'll need to be additionally cautious against another sneaky submission artist like Duncan.
Why Chris Duncan will win
- Last Fight: (W) Jordan Vucenic – SUB (guillotine, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Prior to his last two fights, Chris Duncan owned just one win by submission in 13 professional fights. He's much more known for his brawling style on the feet and ability to walk through opponents with a barrage of straight punches.
However, he's grown fond of using his guillotine anytime opponents try to shoot on him, and it could come in handy once again with a wrestling-heavy opponent like Rebecki.
Chris Duncan should look to be reactionary during this fight as Rebecki is using the fighter moving forward and pressing the action. However, we've seen Rebecki make mistakes defensively, and he's not the most consistent with his arm guard. Look for Duncan to wait on the counter shots as he allows Rebecki to reach on his hooks, countering with short shots as a result.
To be successful in this fight, Duncan will only need a few shots to slow the forward pressure of Rebecki and eventually force him on the back foot. We've seen opponents have success with the low leg kick against this particular opponent, so don't put it past Duncan to spot this immediately and go to that well a number of times.
Final Mateusz Rebecki-Chris Duncan prediction & pick
This is a very close fight in terms of skills, and both men fight with a tough-nosed attitude through all three rounds. Mateusz Rebecki has been tested by much better strikers than himself, but he does a great job of fighting on his own terms and forcing opponents to match his style.
Chris Duncan, on the other hand, is an ultra-aggressive striker who's had a ton of success with his submission game as of late. If Rebecki continues to spam the takedown and try to gain control on the ground, we can fully expect Duncan to throw up numerous submission attempts in the process.
I think Chris Duncan is an extremely patient striker, and he'll allow Rebecki to make mistakes throughout this fight. Duncan is hoping for some desperation takedowns from Rebecki, to which he'll game plan for his patented guillotine submission. On the feet, I think Duncan is the slightly cleaner striker, so we'll roll with him as the underdog in a solid spot.
Final Mateusz Rebecki-Chris Duncan Prediction & Pick: Chris Duncan (+170)
