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UFC Vegas 108: Tatsuro Taira versus HyunSung Park continues on the prelims with a fight between Rafael Estevam and Felipe Bunes in the flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Estevam-Bunes prediction and pick.
Rafael Estevam (13-0) has extended his undefeated streak with two gritty UFC wins, outpointing Jesus Aguilar and Charles Johnson by unanimous decision. Known for relentless wrestling and steady control, Estevam now faces Felipe Bunes, aiming to showcase his dominance and climb further up the flyweight ladder this Saturday night.
Felipe Bunes (14-7) rebounded impressively from a TKO loss to Joshua Van by submitting Jose Johnson in the first round at UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Ribas 2 this January. Now, riding renewed momentum and showcasing his dangerous grappling, Bunes looks to stall Rafael Estevam’s ascent in their flyweight clash this Saturday night.
Here are the UFC Vegas 108 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 108 Odds: Rafael Estevam-Felipe Bunes Odds
Rafael Estevam: -550
Felipe Bunes: +410
Over 2.5 rounds: -154
Under 2.5 rounds: +120
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Why Rafael Estevam Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jesus Aguilar – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 7 (4 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Rafael Estevam comes into UFC Vegas 108 with an undefeated record, a well-rounded skill set, and the kind of wrestling that spells trouble for submission-dependent opponents like Felipe Bunes. Estevam’s methodical approach features crisp, striking landing 58% of his significant strikes and calculated takedowns, which allow him to dictate the terms of most fights. Over two UFC bouts, Estevam has proven comfortable grinding out decisions, racking up control, and ensuring opponents can’t establish their own rhythm.
Bunes' biggest vulnerability is his takedown defense and tendency to fade in later rounds, which plays directly into Estevam’s strengths. While Bunes threatens early with submissions, Estevam’s 60% takedown defense and disciplined top control can neutralize those attempts, especially as Bunes’ output diminishes. Estevam’s average fight time of over 12 minutes shows he’s prepared to manage a high pace and adapt as the fight unfolds, something Bunes has struggled with past the opening round.
If Estevam keeps the fight on the feet, his superior accuracy and defense should allow him to avoid most of Bunes’ dangerous scrambles. On the mat, expect Estevam to control positions, avoid major threats, and wear down his older opponent over three hard rounds, earning a clear victory by decision or late stoppage.
Why Felipe Bunes Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jose Johnson – SUB R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 12 (3 KO/TKO/9 SUB)
Felipe Bunes enters UFC Vegas 108 with serious finishing threat, boasting nine first-round stoppages and a slick submission arsenal rooted in his BJJ black belt pedigree. His aggressive striking, averaging 4.5 significant strikes per minute, could put Rafael Estevam on the back foot early, especially if Bunes sets a torrid pace in the opening exchanges.
Bunes’ best path lies in exploiting Estevam’s tendency to slow down in later rounds, as seen during Estevam’s last two UFC fights where his output dipped noticeably. If Bunes can defend early takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, he will create opportunities to land powerful overhands and seek rapid transitions to fight-ending submissions. His ability to capitalize on mistakes, as shown in his swift armbar win over Jose Johnson, makes him a constant threat if Estevam lapses for even a moment.
Estevam’s relentless wrestling could be challenged by Bunes’ slick submission attacks off his back, forcing Estevam to fight cautiously and possibly neutralizing his customary top control. If Bunes stays aggressive, controls scrambles, and presses forward without expending all his energy, he has the finishing instincts and veteran savvy to hand Estevam his first career loss this Saturday night.
Final Rafael Estevam-Felipe Bunes Prediction & Pick
Rafael Estevam vs. Felipe Bunes is a compelling flyweight showdown, with momentum favoring the undefeated Estevam. He’s displayed superior wrestling, smart striking, and cage control through two UFC victories. If he successfully implements his relentless takedown game and maintains his trademark pace, Estevam will likely neutralize Bunes’ explosive but risky submission attempts.
Bunes is always dangerous early, capable of quick finishes and capitalizing on even minor mistakes. However, Estevam’s disciplined defense and ability to grind out rounds make him well equipped to weather Bunes’ early storm. As the fight progresses, Estevam’s conditioning and adaptability should allow him to control position on the mat and gradually sap Bunes’ energy.
Look for Estevam to survive a tricky opening round before imposing his wrestling-heavy game, mixing strikes and takedowns to keep Bunes guessing. Over three rounds, his consistent output and control should pave the way for a dominant decision win, extending his unbeaten streak in the division.
Final Rafael Estevam-Felipe Bunes Prediction & Pick: Rafael Estevam (-550), Over 2.5 Rounds (-154)
