Texas looks to keep its momentum going when it hosts Sun Belt foe UL Monroe in Week 4. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a UL Monroe-Texas prediction and pick.
The Longhorns are the new No. 1 team in the country in the Associated Press Top 25 poll, with Steve Sarkisian's team coming off a 56-7 win against UTSA. However, starting quarterback and Heisman contender Quinn Ewers left the game with an oblique strain and is considered questionable for this matchup.
As for the Warhawks, they had a bye week and currently sit at 2-0 on the season after wins over Jackson State (30-14) and UAB (32-6). Can Bryant Vincent's squad find the right gameplan to at least make this game interesting in Austin?
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: UL Monroe-Texas Odds
UL Monroe: +44.5 (-105)
Moneyline: N/A
Texas: -44.5 (-115)
Moneyline: N/A
Over: 52.5 (-110)
Under: 52.5 (-110)
How to Watch UL Monroe-Texas
Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT
TV: ESPN+
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why UL Monroe Could Cover The Spread/Win
UL Monroe has already matched its win total from a season ago. That has to account for something, right?
After back-to-back wins to open the season, now the Warhawks earn the opportunity to test themselves against the nation's best. There's always added motivation when playing the top-ranked team, and the “shock the world” mentality should be on full display in this matchup.
One of the teams UL Monroe has already beaten handily – UAB – had that same mentality when it played at Arkansas in Week 3. The Blazers led 17-3 in the second quarter and were down just a field goal in the fourth before losing 37-27 in Fayetteville. If you're into the transitive property in college football, well, the Warhawks taking it to a team that had a chance to beat a likely bowl-bound SEC team might be the argument for UL Monroe staying in this game.
Another way to do it is getting the most out of your impact players. Ahmad Hardy (33 CARs, 161 YDs, 2 TDs) and James Jones (20 CARs, 110 YDs, 1 TD) have fueled a running game that ranks 30th nationally with 206.5 yards per contest. On defense, EDGE rusher Billy Pullen has compiled three sacks through two games.
Both are a good ground game to keep the ball away from Texas and getting pressure on the quarterback is key for the Warhawks in this one.
Why Texas Could Cover The Spread/Win
The thing about the Longhorns is that they have the best quarterback room in college football.
Arch Manning will once again take the reins if Ewers is sidelined, and the Texas offense should still dominate. The No. 1 player in the 2023 recruiting class is 14-of-18 for 318 yards and five touchdowns thus far on the season, having only been sacked once. He's an absolute stud, and there's plenty of talent around him to produce big numbers in this game.
Jerrick Gibson has stepped up to lead a running back room that has been decimated by injuries, as he has notched 33 carries for 178 yards and two touchdowns. To add to the offensive prowess, the Longhorns have had eight different players catch a touchdown pass already this season.
So, while the UL Monroe defense has only allowed 20 total points in its first two games, this is a different animal.
The same applies on defense. To say that Texas has been opportunistic early on would be an understatement. The Longhorns have racked up five interceptions, five sacks, and a fumble recovery in three games, and if they can replicate the same type of aggressive play in game four, the Warhawks could struggle to put points on the board.
Texas has allowed just two touchdowns all season, with one of them coming with 1:54 left in the fourth quarter in the dominant win at Michigan when the game was already decided.
The Longhorns have looked like the best team in the game, and it wouldn't be surprising if they do it again in a favorite matchup where they're favored by more than six touchdowns.
Final UL Monroe-Texas Prediction & Pick
Texas blanked Colorado State 52-0 in Week 1, and its 49-point win against UTSA was just as dominant.
UL Monroe would likely be an underdog to both teams on a neutral field, so you can do the math and understand why the Longhorns could win big in this game – with or without Ewers under center.
In these scenarios, the better team usually flexes its muscles and shows why it's as good as advertised.
Texas should handle its business.
Final UL Monroe-Texas Prediction & Pick: Texas -44.5 (-115)
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