The Golden State Warriors raised the Larry O'Brien Trophy for the fourth time in eight years less than two months ago. But with free agency firmly in the rearview mirror, the roster close to finalized and training camp fast approaching, it's time to consider the reigning champions' chances of defending their title.
Here are three way too early Warriors predictions ahead of 2022-23.
Golden State Warriors 2022-23 Predictions
James Wiseman will fall out of the rotation
Expect the No. 2 overall pick of the 2020 draft to enter the regular season with an earmarked rotation spot off the bench, assuming he doesn't sorely disappoint during training camp and the exhibition slate. Joe Lacob loves Wiseman, and even if he held more tempered, reasoned optimism on the 21-year-old big man's future, the Warriors can afford to let their talented young prospects learn from growing pains over the 82-game grind.
Kevon Looney's 21.1 minutes per game last season were a career-high. JaMychal Green, 32, doesn't need to play a significant reserve role before more is asked of him in the playoffs, and Golden State would be smart to spare Draymond Green some wear and tear by limiting his time at center during the regular season to marquee matchups and high-leverage circumstances of time and score.
Wiseman will get ample chance to prove he belongs in 2022-23, basically. Just don't count on him supplanting the Warriors' older, more experienced big men in the frontcourt pecking order when the games start to really matter next spring.
Wiseman's performance at Las Vegas Summer League was at least some measure of encouraging on the whole given he hadn't played competitive basketball in over a year. He looked healthy and explosive in Sin City, with a bit more mass on his body that made it easier to embrace physicality. There were times Wiseman showed improved help instincts as a weak-side rim-protector, especially early.
But the lagging overall feel and understanding that consistently hindered Wiseman as a rookie—and by consequence, Golden State at large—was also back on display.
He managed just five assists in four games despite above-average usage, and fouled at the 12th-highest rate among Summer League regulars, per RealGM. None of the players who fouled more than Wiseman project as rotation players in 2022-23. Perhaps most damning of Wiseman's potential to help Golden State come playoff time? How badly Mfiondu Kabengele, now on a two-way deal, outplayed him in Golden State's loss to the Boston Celtics.
Wiseman will no doubt have moments as a finisher and shot-blocker this season that convey his rare natural gifts, hinting at long-term star potential some insist still exists. Perhaps it's too early to foreclose on that possibility altogether. After all, Wiseman has appeared in just 42 games dating back to his freshman season at Memphis three years ago. His blend of natural tools and nascent skill with the ball will always intrigue.
Still, barring high-level defensive awareness and offensive scalability that seems likely to continue eluding him, Wiseman will be stuck on the bench for the Warriors' title defense come playoff time.
Andrew Wiggins will make All-Defense
There's no surer indication of Wiggins' mid-career evolution than the goal he's publicly set for himself multiple times this summer.
After hounding Jayson Tatum one-on-one and leading the Dubs in rebounding during the NBA Finals, Wiggins is fully embracing his new reality as arguably the best role player in basketball. Case in point: He wants an All-Defense spot this season.
“The defensive team, that’s going to be most important to me,” Wiggins said in late June on the Point Forward podcast. “People never really questioned my scoring, but everyone always questioned my defense. To go out there and get an award for defense, that would be a dream come true for me.”
Green is Golden State's most impactful defender; that won't change anytime soon. Golden State will also miss the all-court disruption provided by Gary Payton II, a dynamic Steve Kerr says changed the Finals when Young Glove was healthy enough to play from Game 2 onward.
Wiggins won't always be the Warriors' primary option on star ball handlers and wings, either, occasionally ceding that task to Donte DiVincenzo, Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga before crunch time. But there's no denying after Golden State's title run that he's developed into top-tier isolation stopper and much-improved help defender.
The Warriors' defensive rating with Wiggins and Green on the floor last season was 102.7, per NBA.com/stats, 3.5 points stingier than the Celtics' league-leading mark. As long as his team remains a top-five defense, expect end-of-season award voters to give Wiggins the flowers he deserves from the Finals, rewarding him with All-Defense honors for the first time.
Vintage Klay will reappear
It's become conventional wisdom that players who suffered torn ACLs fare better in their second season returned from injury than the first. What does that mean for Thompson, who didn't just come back from torn ligaments in his left knee last season, but also a more recent ruptured Achilles tendon?
We might've seen glimpses of that answer in the last half of the NBA Finals, when Thompson regularly stymied both Tatum and Jaylen Brown defensively after getting roasted by Boston's stars earlier in the series. That was the tough, strong, versatile defender who helped unlock Golden State's dominant switch-heavy defense in the early days of the dynasty, cementing himself as one of the top two-way perimeter players in the league.
Thompson probably can't be counted on to duplicate that defensive impact on a nightly basis, and Kerr won't ask him to do it. But just the option of putting him on star-level scorers without sustained negative recourse would be a boon for the Warriors, especially in wake of Payton's departure. No team can have too many quality defenders on the wing.
And if Thompson can scrape his pre-injury defensive chops when needed, it's safe to say the jumper will follow. He shot 36.4% on catch-and-shoot triples last season, by far the lowest mark of his career per NBA.com/stats.
Thompson's days as an All-Star and perennial All-NBA candidate are likely over. The bet here is he's capable of reaching that form again at least for brief stretches in 2022-23, building on the progress he made while helping the Warriors climb out of a 2-1 hole against the Celtics.
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