The Los Angeles Dodgers made the biggest free-agency splash, not just of this year but of all-time when they signed two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million contract. This signing gave the Dodgers their centerpiece for years to come, but Ohtani's deferral of $680 million of his salary to the end of his contract opened up a plethora of spending options for LA in free agency.
The club used this surplus to sign Japanese pitching sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto on a 12-year, $325 million deal. Yamamoto won the equivalent of MVP and Cy Young in Japan this past year while finishing 17-6 with a 1.21 ERA. The right-hander immediately becomes the Dodgers ace.
Dodgers pitching question marks
The biggest need for the Dodgers is starting pitching. Los Angeles finished 22nd in starting pitching WAR in 2023, the worst finish among any position for the club. Numerous LA pitchers are entering free agency, while every hurler that is staying is either young and unproven or a talented veteran with a history of injury issues.
Even with the major offseason additions to the starting rotation, there are still questions about this Dodgers pitching staff. Ohtani will not be able to pitch until 2025 as he recovers from elbow surgery. Meanwhile, Tyler Glasnow pitched a career-high 120 innings in 2023 and is all but guaranteed to not last a full season.
As for possible returners, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias — LA's top two pitchers entering 2023 — are both free agents and dealing with reoccurring injuries. Urias missed two months with a hamstring issue, while Kershaw underwent shoulder surgery this offseason, putting his status for 2024 in question.
The rest of the Dodgers' pitching staff is just as injury-prone. Walker Buehler missed most of 2022 and all of 2023 with Tommy John surgery. Other veteran starters include Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and Ryan Yarbrough, all of whom also missed time in 2023.
LA has a myriad of youngsters who were solid last year but still unproven. Bobby Miller and Emmett Sheehan were both rookies in 2023, and while they performed admirably, can they be relied on to be consistent starters again in 2024? The Dodgers starting rotation has considerable talent, but by the time the playoffs roll around, they might be scrambling to find a postseason starter.
Postseason luck
No professional sports postseason is more luck-based than Major League Baseball. In the NBA, the better team advances in a best-of-seven series 80 percent of the time. For the best team to advance at the same rate in the NFL playoffs, it would mean a best-of-11 series and for the NHL would necessitate a best-of-51 series. For MLB, a series of 75 games would be required for the better team to advance 80 percent of the time.
Looking at the teams the Dodgers have lost to in the playoffs over the last three years (Atlanta Braves in 2021, San Diego Padres in 2022, and Arizona Diamondbacks in 2023), Los Angeles had an average of 18.7 more wins each year than their opponent. Of their last six playoff exits, LA has only lost once to a team with a better record than them (the Boston Red Sox in the 2018 World Series).
This underperformance is not exclusive to the Dodgers. In the Wild Card era (starting in 1995) the winningest team in the regular season has only won the World Series on six occasions (seven if you count LA's title in the COVID-shortened 2020 season).
Talent can only get the Dodgers so far, as postseason baseball is far more dependent on luck than any other variable.
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