What does the future hold for the Golden State Warriors? This is a question many around the league are seeking an answer to ahead of the 2024-25 NBA season. Perhaps Klay Thompson's departure signals some sort of internal fracturing for Golden State, or maybe Stephen Curry's latest extension helps paint a picture for what the future looks like. While there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Warriors that won't truly be addressed until the season begins, the underlying factor that controls their destiny is Jonathan Kuminga.
When the Warriors drafted Kuminga seventh overall in 2021, he was nothing more than a high-upside swing taken by Bob Myers and Golden State's front office. By no means was Kuminga talented enough at 19 years old to come into the league as the top-10 pick and immediately contribute, but the potential for him to grow into a two-way star was enough for the Warriors to take a big gamble on him.
So far, Kuminga's growth has been nothing short of spectacular, and he proved to be one of the NBA's most improved players during the 2023-24 season. In fact, it is not hard to make the claim that Kuminga was the team's third-most important player behind Curry and Draymond Green, surpassing the importance Thompson held for so many years. Thompson is no longer with the Warriors, and given the struggles Andrew Wiggins presented last season, there is a clear path to Kuminga seeing himself become the Warriors' second-best scorer next to Curry.
The thing about Kuminga is that his contract situation is going to have a direct domino effect on every move the Warriors are able to make for the next several years. The young forward is going to be entering training camp ahead of the 2024-25 season in the final year of his rookie contract. Whether or not Kuminga will receive a substantial, long-term extension from the Warriors is the biggest question that looms large over this franchise.
However, with the way general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. has managed this offseason, there is skepticism about how exactly contract discussions with Kuminga are going to go. Could this signal the final year that Kuminga is in a Warriors uniform? More importantly, what will the Warriors decide to do before October 21, the deadline for coming to an agreement with Kuminga on a contract extension?
Jonathan Kuminga contract extension talks
A decision to possibly extend Jonathan Kuminga's contract before the start of the 2024-25 season is a move that drastically changes the Warriors' future. While Kuminga has proven to be a vital part of Golden State's new core group, there are a multitude of factors that play into his contract situation, starting with the team's financial situation.
After cutting Chris Paul in the offseason, as well as seeing Thompson join the Dallas Mavericks, the Warriors were able to significantly decrease their cap figures and move below both the first and second tax aprons. The Warriors are operating as a team above the cap, which is significant since they have always been one of the highest paying teams when it came to luxury taxes. For once, owner Joe Lacob and his organization have a lot of room to maneuver when it comes to future trades and contracts.
If Kuminga was to receive a long-term, high-paying contract extension right now, this flexibility and all of the work that the Warriors did this offseason to maintain financial control over their roster would vanish in the blink of an eye. That is why contract extension talks haven't really been relevant.
All offseason, Kuminga has been held out of trade talks by the Warriors, league sources told ClutchPoints. The Warriors did pursue All-Star swingman Paul George when he was still with the Los Angeles Clippers, but Kuminga ended up being the breaking point of these discussions since Golden State held no desire to trade the young forward.
While it is clear that the Warriors are wanting to keep Kuminga around, the price of a possible new contract is what dictates the future. Kuminga and his camp are obviously seeking the maximum amount of money given his influence on the organization and possibility of long-term growth. The deals that Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner received this summer, $225 million over a five-year span, are what Kuminga's camp is seeking.
The same cannot be said about the Warriors, sources said, as their estimates are significantly lower. The Warriors will likely be looking in the ballpark of $140 million to $155 million in initial discussions regarding Kuminga. That is where the stalemate lies right now, and this is why there has not been any traction or momentum whatsoever suggesting that a new deal will be agreed upon before the start of the 2024-25 season. Similar remarks have also been made by The Athletic's Anthony Slater regarding no “significant progress” being made in Kuminga's case.
This situation that Kuminga faces and the Oct. 21 deadline are important simply due to the fact that the Warriors don't know what they are going to look like. Buddy Hield, De'Anthony Melton, and Kyle Anderson are new, veteran faces that have joined the mix and offer a lot of reason to still believe in Golden State. Then again, the Warriors are always an organization looking to pull off a big move.
No deal was made for either George or Lauri Markkanen this offseason, which leads to more questions about if the Warriors will maximize their assets to go all-in on any big names that become available during the 2024-25 season.
Warriors' flexibility influences Kuminga decision
There are less than three weeks until training camp begins for the Warriors. A total of roughly six weeks stand between now and the start of the 2024-25 season. At this point, it is safe to say that the Warriors are done tinkering with their roster in terms of making offseason additions.
With Thompson and Paul gone, the Warriors were able to expand on their depth in key areas that they were lacking a season ago. Hield and Melton are going to bring more three-point shooting to Steve Kerr's rotations, and Anderson provides stability behind Green, Wiggins, and Kuminga as a do-it-all forward who can help initiate the offense in the second unit. It is also worth mentioning that Melton is a solid defender on the perimeter and will be heavily utilized for his combo guard abilities.
At full strength, the Warriors undoubtedly look like a team that can compete in the Western Conference on paper. But that was the case a season ago, and this team missed the playoffs.
It is no coincidence that the Warriors have won four of the last 10 championships. This organization understands that it takes big moves in free agency and on the trade market in order to be a true championship-caliber franchise, and the Warriors went big game hunting this offseason when they were pursuing George and Markkanen.
We should expect nothing less of the Warriors during the 2024-25 season, which is where Kuminga's contract extension talks come into play. By keeping things how they are and not giving Kuminga a new deal, the Warriors can preserve their current flexibility in regards to the NBA trade market.
Star players becoming available and seeking trades is inevitable, and there is at least one All-Star talent on the move at the trade deadline every season. The Warriors are in a very advantageous position compared to other contending teams right now simply because they have the capability to take on an All-Star-like contract while also moving mid-level-like contracts currently on their roster to make the finances balance.
If Kuminga was to get a new contract, the Warriors would be tied down and limited, meaning that they would be all-in on the young forward being their future. As he prepares to start his fourth NBA season with the Warriors, Kuminga still has room to grow and prove that he can possibly grow into an All-Star talent in a similar way to what Golden State fans saw with Wiggins just a few years back.
This doesn't necessarily mean that the Warriors don't want to keep Kuminga, but by waiting on his current contract and holding out until next offseason, all options are on the table for how Golden State wants their future to go. After all, every season is unpredictable, and anything can happen between now and next June.
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