The San Diego Padres landed lefty closer Tanner Scott at the MLB trade deadline. The Padres continued to bulk up to contend for the National League Wild Card. Adding one of the best relievers in baseball will certainly bring them closer to their competition and increase their chances of making the playoffs. But the Padres are built for a long window of competition and should not have mortgaged the future for a reliever.
Scott was one of the many players the Miami Marlins traded away at the deadline and they got great value for him. Four prospects went to the Marlins in the deal, including three of the top-10 players in their pipeline. Left-handed pitcher Robby Snelling headlines the deal. He is the 44th prospect in the overall rankings and the number two man in the Padres system. The Padres added pitcher Adam Mazur (SD #4), IF/OF Graham Pauley (SD #5), and IF Jay Beshears (SD #24) to complete the deal.
The Padres did receive Bryan Hoeing in the deal as well, but the headliner is Tanner Scott. The 30-year-old is an unrestricted free agent after this season and is in the midst of a career year. While he has been a solid reliever in his career, he could command a salary that he cannot perform to.
In the 2024 offseason, the Astros signed Josh Hader to the richest contract for a relief pitcher in MLB history. While he has been serviceable, he has not been the superstar closer he was in Milwaukee. This recent development should scare teams off from signing Scott to a long-term deal this offseason.
Future of Padres and Tanner Scott
The Padres have put themselves in a tough situation regarding Scott. If they do not re-sign him, they will have overpaid for a half-season of a relief pitcher. If they keep him, they risk a dramatic overpay that hinders the team in other areas. Giving up three top-10 prospects means the Padres are confident in their ability to keep him. That does not mean they should.
Scott would be the fourth reliever committed to the Padres for a long time. Wandy Peralta and Robert Suarez are there through 2028 and Yuki Matsui isn't a free agent until 2029. Locking in an aging bullpen while the rest of the roster, especially the starting rotation, needs attention is not a good use of tax space.
All of the Padres' moves and signings are rendered meaningless if they do not make the playoffs. With such star power on the offensive side, they were expected to cruise to a Wild Card position this season. They enter Wednesday's action tied for the final Wild Card position. The Padres have a 65% chance to make the playoffs, according to Fangraphs. While that bodes well for them, it is far from a guarantee.
If the Padres miss the playoffs, they will certainly regret making the Tanner Scott trade. To spend such a high price for a reliever and not see him pitch in October would be a massive disappointment. If they do make it, the deal could have some negative effects down the road, as reliever contracts continue to balloon.
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