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The college basketball season ends on Monday night, but not before it gives the people the National Championship game they deserve: UConn versus Purdue. The Huskies and the Boilermakers have been two of the best teams in the country this season, with both staying in the top 10 of the AP Poll for the entirety of the year.
Much of the focus will be on the titanic matchup between seven-footers Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey. The two centers are among college basketball's elite players and neither has gone up against a team yet that can match their size down low.
Who will come out on top in this much-anticipated heavy-weight bout? Here are three reasons why Purdue will take home the national championship.
Better three-point shooting
For all of UConn's shooting success this season (36% from three), the Huskies have been fairly inaccurate from behind the arc in the NCAA Tournament. UConn is just 30.7% from three across its last five games, including a 3-17 showing against Illinois and 3-22 against Northwestern. The Huskies dominated in the paint in both contests, shooting 78.9% at the rim while finishing a combined +12 on the boards. Finishing at the hoop and rebounding will not be as easy against Zach Edey and Purdue.
Meanwhile, Purdue is shooting 39.3% for the tournament, hitting at least 37% of its attempts from deep in every contest but the Elite Eight game against Tennessee. The Boilermakers struggled down low against NC State, shooting just 12 of 30 two-point attempts as players other than Zach Edey were 3-16 from inside the arc. Yet Matt Painter's shooters stepped up, knocking down 10-25 three-point shots.
UConn has used its size down low to make up for its ineffective three-point shooting so far in the NCAA Tournament. Against Purdue, the Huskies will not have that same advantage and the Boilermakers have a leg up when it comes to three-point shooting.
Lack of aggression from UConn defense
One of Purdue's few foils this season has been the offense's propensity for committing turnovers. Against NC State, 16 Boilermaker turnovers helped keep the Wolfpack in the game where Purdue was the better team. Turnovers have been the common thread in Purdue's three defeats this year, as the Boilermakers' averaged turnover margin in losses this year is -9. The 16 turnovers in 64 possessions in the Final Four was the highest turnover rate on the season for Purdue, a team that is 142nd in the nation in turnover rate. This was the worst offensive efficiency of the tournament for PU at 104.1 and its second-worst ADJO of the season.
Fortunately for Matt Painter's team, UConn is not aggressive on the defensive end. The Huskies are 247th in the country in defensive turnover rate and have failed to force 10 turnovers in three of their five NCAA Tournament clashes. A clear advantage exists here for the Boilermakers.
More urgency from Purdue
In all likelihood, Monday night's national championship game will be the final contest of Zach Edey's illustrious college career. This year is the first time Purdue has advanced past the Sweet Sixteen with Edey on the roster. The Boilermakers will have a different kind of hunger than the Huskies — the reigning national champs. No one knows yet what Purdue's roster will look like next year with Edey, but it will not be as talented as this year's team.
Because of this turnover, there is an added urgency for the Boilermakers to win now. Edey will not have another shot at a title and Matt Painter might not either. Dan Hurley and UConn were here last year. Of course Hurley and the Huskies will be disappointed if they lose, but they can relax a bit knowing they already won a title the year before.
