As the Eastern Conference playoff picture rounds into form, two teams are emerging as legitimate threats to the Milwaukee Bucks: the Toronto Raptors and the Boston Celtics.
The Bucks are undoubtedly the team to beat in the East. With a league-leading 49-8 record, they've earned that accolade with a historic 2019-20 season led by reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Raptors and Celtics are starting to separate themselves from the four-team clump – that includes Miami and Philadelphia – that has been neck-and-neck for majority of the season up until the past few weeks.
With that said, which of Boston and Toronto has a real shot of denying Milwaukee its first trip to the NBA Finals since 1974? With what we've seen so far this season, the nod probably goes to the defending NBA champions.
Before we dig into this, let's review the season series so far. In three meetings, Boston has Toronto's number with a 2-1 edge.
The Celtics won the early season match-up with both teams at full strength. In their Christmas Day showdown in Toronto, the C's defeated the Raps by 16 with Toronto missing Siakam and Gasol. Three days later in Boston, the Raptors avenged their Christmas day loss by blowing out the Celtics on the road, also without Siakam and Gasol.
They will still meet one more time on March 20. That game will likely have an intense playoff atmosphere.
Now, what gives Toronto the edge over Boston?
For one, they lost Kawhi Leonard. Any team that loses arguably the best player in the world would crumble. In fact, that is what many expected from Toronto prior to the start of the season. Yet, they still currently find themselves at the no. 2 spot in the East.
What makes this more impressive is that they are doing this despite having injuries to nearly every one of their key rotation players at some point during the season. You name it, from Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka, Marc Gasol, and Norman Powell — all of them have spent time (or are currently) on the sidelines for the Raps.
Despite this, Toronto manages to keep itself afloat near the top of the conference. The Raptors' “next man up” mentality has given players such as Chris Boucher or Terence Davis a chance to emerge from out of nowhere to play significant minutes and roles for them when some of their key players are out.
This indicates that the Raptors, as a group, is well aware of its identity as a team. And they keep by their identity to succeed. They have a bunch of guys who know their role and play it to the best of their abilities.
As opposed to Boston, while they are finally clicking again this season after a roller-coaster 2018-19 campaign, their identity doesn't seem as defined as Toronto's right now. Is Jayson Tatum now the guy (and make no mistake about it, he is making a strong case for this especially with his play over the past month), or is it still Kemba Walker?
Another reason why Toronto poses the bigger threat is they are a much deeper squad than Boston is. The Raptors boast a group of proven veterans such as Lowry, Ibaka, and Gasol along with Siakam and VanVleet, who have a ton of playoff experience under their belts including, of course, a championship win last year.
And if you go down their list of players, they have guys such as Terence Davis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Chris Boucher, to name a few who have had the opportunities to play a big role for them at some points of the season.
For Boston, while some of them did make the Eastern Conference Finals two years ago, they still have a team that doesn't have much playoff experience. Their two veteran leaders Kemba Walker and Gordon Hayward aren't regulars in the postseason. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are still in their early 20's.
Their bench is also paper thin. Aside from Marcus Smart, they really don't have anyone else that they can play the valuable minutes in the playoffs. The Celtics might be a player or two short in having a reliable 7 or 8-man rotation in the postseason.
In addition, homecourt advantage may become a major factor when these two teams do face off in the playoffs. Toronto currently has a 3-game edge over Boston for the 2nd seed in the East. Both teams have relatively the same strength of schedule the rest of the way. If the current standings hold up, Toronto will have homecourt advantage over Boston.
To conclude, this doesn't say that the Raptors are the significantly better team. In fact, both are really close. Both are in the top-3 in defense. Boston boasts a slightly better offense, but both are on the same level in terms overall net rating, per NBA.com.
Given all the points raised and the fact that the Raptors are motivated to defend their throne, I'd have to give the nod to Toronto. Unfortunately for the defending champions, Boston will likely just be their first major hurdle. Should they get past the Celtics, they inevitably still need to go through the Bucks to make a return trip to the NBA Finals.
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