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There's no denying the Golden State Valkyries fought hard in their 98-91 loss to the Phoenix Mercury. With only eight players available due to Tiffany Hayes and Cecilia Zandalasini's late injury scratches, the remaining Valkyries stepped up and tested the Mercury through the majority of the game.
Veronica Burton continued her Most Improved Player campaign with another double-double, finishing with 24 points and 14 assists. Bench players turned starters Kate Martin and Carla Leite collected a combined 29 points and six made 3-pointers. Golden State just ran out of gas in the second half as the veteran-led Mercury demonstrated why they are legitimate title contenders.
However, the Valkyries' second defeat in a row to a top-four team in the WNBA underscores some concern for the team moving forward. As injuries pile up and the playoff race gets narrower and narrower as the end of the regular season gets closer, the Valkyries enter a stretch of the season where there is little room for error. Here are three concerns to monitor after Golden State's tough loss to Phoenix at home.
The health of the Valkyries moving forward
The Valkyries, like many teams across the league, are at the point in the season when everyone is some degree of hurt in terms of player health. But Golden State is feeling it right now, and it's hitting them all at once.
Hayes and Zandalasini were added to the Valkyries' official injury report minutes before tip-off. Head coach Natalie Nakase told reporters after the game that Hayes tweaked something in warm-ups, so the team held her out of precaution. As for Zandalasini, Veronica Burton told KPIX's Matt Lively the team learned Zandalasini would be unable to play due to a left calf injury during the starting five announcements.
In her post-game press conference, Nakase explained the reasoning behind Hayes and Zandalasini's late injury scratches.
“They both warmed up pre-game, and they didn't feel 100% healthy,” Nakase said when asked if Hayes could have played if the team knew about Zandalasini's injury designation ahead of time. “You know my motto, right? If they're not 100% and they don't feel right, it's not time to play. How many players did I just hear today from Dallas? Someone is out completely, Sophie (Cunningham) from Indiana is out completely. I am not risking another player right now.”
No team can prepare for two starters sustaining injuries right before the game. But paired with the fact that the Valkyries were already down Kayla Thornton to a season-ending knee injury, Monique Billings to a nagging ankle injury, and Iliana Rupert to concussion protocol, it's hard not to think about the team's health concerns moving forward and if that changes how Nakase approaches her rotation.
Nakase stated post-game that while there are health factors to consider, she does not foresee changing when and how the team rests players.
The elusive 3-point shooting
The Valkyries' every fluctuating 3-point shooting isn't a new concern, but it still remains one of the most fascinating factors for this team's success. After going 9-of-18 from beyond the arc in the first half, the Valkyries' shooting fell back to earth in the second half. They went 3-of-17 from the 3-point line to close the game, so it's not surprising to see that Golden State couldn't match the pace of the Mercury's second-half offense, getting outscored 51-32.
On the one hand, the Valkyries' 3-point shooting looks worse on paper because of how cold they were to begin the season. Since the all-star break, Golden State's shot 35.3%, a far cry from their pre-all-star 30.7%, which ranked second to last in the league at the time. However, on the other hand, the Valkyries still lead the league in 3-point attempts as well as percentage of points from the 3-point line by a staggering margin.
A lot of their offense is predicated on how hot they can get from distance. Zandalasini, Burton, and Janelle Salaün's hot shooting in their recent four-game winning streak is proof of how good it can look when the Valkyries are firing on all cylinders. And while Nakase and the team eagerly lean into their identity as a top-tier defense that can muck up any opposing offense, the lingering unpredictability of their 3-point shooting is something to monitor as the regular season winds down.
The Valkyries' matchups versus the WNBA elite
The loss was the Valkyries third to Phoenix this season and yet another against a top four team in the league. While the Valkyries have done a great job of beating opponents at or below their record, they've struggled mightedly against the premier teams in the WNBA. The Valkyries are 4-13 against teams above them in the standings and 1-10 against the top four teams in the Mercury, Dream, Liberty, and Lynx.
That doesn't bode well in a potential first-round playoff matchup because the Valkyries are likely to finish in the bottom half of the bracket, meaning they'd likely face a team that's dominated them in the regular season.
Of course, there've been extenuating circumstances in many of those games: injuries, EuroBasket, roster turnover, fatigue, etc. And given how well the Valkyries' coaching staff has been at scouting, it's not out of the realm that Golden State could pull off an upset in a short 3-game series. The defense alone can wreak enough havoc to steal at least one game against a higher seed, and the upside of volatile 3-point shooting is the occasional lights-out performance.
However, the Valkyries record against the best of the best is not nothing. Real concerns lie in those matchups, particularly those other teams being able to close them out in tight fourth quarters. Golden State has ample opportunity to solve its issues against the WNBA elite with a rematch against the Mercury on Friday, as well as matchups against the Lynx and Liberty toward the end of the season.
