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With the 2024 WNBA season winding down, the Los Angeles Sparks are not yet mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. There's only one problem, the Sparks currently sit at the bottom of the WNBA standings. While they are only three and a half games back of the current No. 8 seed Chicago Sky, they would need to pass the other three teams that No. 9-11.
That's not impossible, just highly improbable considering how the Sparks' 2024 season has gone so far. Wins have been hard to come by and the Sparks were unable to build any sort of momentum following their huge win against the New York Liberty back on Aug. 28.
The overarching theme for the Sparks as the season winds down has been development and culture building. Head coach Curt Miller has emphasized the process and establishing proper habits that ultimately lead to being a perennial playoff contender.
The last time the Sparks made the playoffs was 2020 when they were in the bubble. They've had three consecutive losing seasons since then and are on the verge of a fourth.
But as unlikely as it seems, a pathway for the Sparks to make the playoffs still exists. They're just going to need an incredible win streak as well as major help from the teams ahead of them.
Sparks need to win out to make the playoffs
Before their win against the Liberty, the Sparks were on a seven game losing streak that went back before the Olympic break. Their last win prior to that was on July 13 against the Dallas Wings.
With seven games remaining in the season, the Sparks can ill afford any more losses. As drastic as it may seem, the reality of the situation is the Sparks need to win out to have any hope of making the playoffs. That's going to be a very daunting task.
Of those remaining seven games, five of them are against teams that are over .500. And the other two teams, the Sky and the Phoenix Mercury, are both trying to hold on to their playoff spots.
Four of those seven games are at home though were the Sparks have managed to pick up five of their seven wins on the season. So that's something they have going for them. But again, for a realistic shot at the playoffs, the Sparks need all of these wins. They would finish the season at 14-26. But simply winning out isn't going to be enough for a postseason berth.
Sparks need ‘help' from teams ahead in the standings
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The Sparks cannot simply win out to make the postseason, they're going to need help from the teams ahead of them in the standings. They need to pass four teams in the Sky, Dream, Mystics and Wings to snap their playoff drought.
The Sky, the team currently sitting at No. 8, are in a free-fall at the moment. They're on a seven game losing streak also with seven games to go. And the two teams square off against each other on Friday.
But three of the Sky's remaining games are against the Dream, Mystics and Wings, all teams ahead of the Sparks in the standings. Provided that the Sparks win out, the best case scenario would be for the Sky to pick up wins against the Mystics and Wings while losing the rest of their games. That would potentially put the Sky at 13-27.
The next team, the Dream at No. 9. also have seven games remaining in the season with two games against the Mystics, one against the Wings and one against the Sky. The Sparks' best case scenario is the Dream beating the Sky, but losing the rest of their games to finish with a record of 12-28.
The next team up would be the Mystics at No. 10 who also have seven games remaining. Provided the Mystics lose to the Sky but beat the Dream twice in the above scenarios, the Sparks would need them to lose their other four games to finish with a record of 12-28.
And that leaves the Wings who are in 11th place. With the above scenarios, the Wings lose to the Sky and the Dream. That means the Wings can finish no better than 13 wins. The remaining five games for the Wings are against teams with winning records so it's highly unlikely they win all five.
The Sparks have essentially zero room for error if they still want to make the WNBA playoffs this season. They do not control their own destiny. The above possible outcomes are what the Sparks need in order to still make the postseason, as improbable as it is.
