The New York Yankees need to bolster their rotation or else they will end up wasting the 2024 season. The Yankees significantly upgraded their offense during the 2023 offseason by acquiring Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres. Unfortunately, Soto’s acquisition came at a high cost, as the Yankees traded away numerous top pitching prospects for New York. This included the team's best pitching prospect, Drew Thorpe. Now, to help the rotation, the Yankees should offer pitcher Blake Snell the following contract in MLB free agency.
The Yankees went all in on an international star and came up short
The Yankees' solution to their lack of starting pitching depth was to sign Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto in international free agency. Unfortunately, this plan was foiled due to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ willingness to spend heavily, combined with deferred money accounting practices and Yamamoto's preferred city being Los Angeles.
It is essential that the Yankees add to their rotation, as they are woefully thin and this could easily destroy their 2023 season before it even begins. The only sure thing they have is Gerrit Cole, and the rest of the rotation is full of question marks, from the health of Nestor Cortes Jr. to the inconsistency of Carlos Rodon.
The Yankees can address their rotation through the trade market and free agency
Options are somewhat limited for the Yankees at this point in the offseason. The most likely avenue to improving the team’s pitching staff is from the trade market, with names such as Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, and Dylan Cease. There is another option, though. The team could look to the MLB free agency market and add a player such as Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery.
A Cy Young winner is available
Blake Snell is the best option. When healthy, his ceiling is that of the best pitcher in baseball. The latest rumors are that the Yankees offered Snell a 5-year contract worth $150 million, which the veteran left-hander declined.
Rumors from Snell's camp indicate that he is looking for a contract worth at least $240 million. Snell should wait this out for a little bit longer, as teams may get more desperate if it is unlikely that any of the star trade candidates will be on the move. In the end, though, the most likely scenario is Snell realizing that he will have to accept a contract that is at least somewhat lower than what he is seeking.
Teams considering signing Snell are right to have some concerns
The biggest concerns the Yankees should have when deciding what to offer Snell are his injury history and lack of consistency. Due to his Cy Young-level ceiling, the Yankees should still explore adding Snell to their rotation. However, it is imperative they include guardrails in his contract to protect their financial flexibility.
Throughout his career, Snell has averaged a shade under 130 innings pitched per season. This is simply not good enough for a number one or number two pitcher in a team's rotation.
Any team considering signing Snell to a long-term deal has every right to be concerned about how Snell will age and there is considerable risk that Snell can find himself consistently injured, with his contract turning into a massive albatross hanging around the team’s neck.
Snell also struggles to limit his walks, which contributes to his inconsistency. This is because every pitcher will occasionally get hit hard, and when that happens having traffic on the bases only serves to amplify the damage.
The Yankees should offer Snell an incentive-heavy deal
The Yankees can offer Snell a six-year deal worth $35 million per year, for a total guaranteed value of $210 million.
However, with the Yankees' concerns about Snell and with Snell looking for a contract worth up to $240 million, or even $270 million according to some reports, there is a better option available that would appeal to both parties.
The Yankees should offer Snell the six-year contract with a base salary of $30 million per year. Each season should have a built-in durability bonus and performance bonus. These bonuses will be for $5 million each, bringing the total annual value to $40 million if both bonuses are earned.
The durability bonus will require Snell to pitch at least 175 innings in a given year. The performance bonus will require him to have a sub-3.2 earned run average.
There will also be an extension bonus if Snell is able to pitch at least 165 innings in the final year of his contract with an ERA below 3.4.
This is important because it could raise the total value exponentially. If Snell is able to reach both of these milestones in the final year of his deal, it will unlock a player option to add an additional year to the contract with the same terms. If Snell unlocks the first option year and exercises it, a second option will become available with the same structure to add a potential eighth year to the contract.
In total, the maximum potential value of this contract is eight years at $40 million per year if both options are unlocked and exercised and if Snell is able to achieve every performance bonus, for a potential maximum value of $320 million.
Why the Yankees agree to this deal
The Yankees agree to this deal because it represents a reasonable baseline for an above-average starting pitcher, and when Snell is at his best he is one of the top five or ten pitchers in the world. The incentive-heavy nature of this proposed deal means that if Snell falls apart, his contract won’t cripple the team’s financial flexibility.
Why Snell agrees to this deal
Blake Snell agrees to this deal because it represents a baseline that meets in the middle of what the Yankees originally offered and what Snell believes he is worth. If Snell lives up to expectations, this deal could reach or even exceed his rumored asking price. If he performs well and shows longevity, this deal could even cross the $300 million threshold, and that is his only credible path to a $300 million deal.
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